According to data from the Federation of Travel Unions, in 2007, the sales of new energy vehicles in China were 777,000 units. It is expected that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China will exceed one million in 2018. The rapid growth of new energy vehicles has also stimulated the rapid development of the power battery market. Data show that In 2017, the total installed capacity of China's new energy vehicle (EV+PHEV) power battery was approximately 36.24GWh, which was a year-on-year increase of 29.4% compared to the data of 28GWh in 2016.
The rapid growth of the market has also brought many problems to the development of the power battery industry. On the one hand, the problem of overcapacity has begun to appear. Statistics from relevant research institutions show that in 2017, the installed capacity of power batteries in China was only 36.24GWh. In fact, China’s power battery output in 2017 It is 44.5GWh, so the overall inventory of power batteries in 2017 accounted for 18.7% of the total output.
Lithium iron phosphate batteries will face severe overcapacity in the next 1-2 years. Three-phase lithium batteries will exhibit phased excess capacity. However, in the medium and long term, China’s power battery industry still has very large growth potential. , According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the total demand for domestic lithium battery is estimated to be about 90GWh by 2020. By 2025, the demand for power battery will reach 310GWh.
On the other hand, the concentration of the power battery industry increased. The total installed power of the top ten power battery companies was 26.22GWh, accounting for 72.3% of the total installed capacity. The Ningde era topped the 10.4GWh installed capacity with a market share of nearly 30%. The second-ranked BYD installed capacity was 5.43GWh, with a market share of approximately 15%. Other companies such as Waterma, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, BAK Power, etc. ranked 3 to 10, with a market share of no more than 6.5%.
In addition, the rise in the production of power batteries also stimulated the increase in the prices of raw materials in the upper reaches. Coupled with the adjustment of state subsidies policies, the price of downstream vehicle manufacturers has fallen, and many power battery manufacturers have begun to encounter 'winter'.
Relevant financial reports show that in 2017, the profit of a number of power battery listed companies decreased sharply or the growth rate decreased significantly. Take Guoxuan Hi-Tech as an example, in 2017, its total realized revenue was 5.048 billion yuan, an increase of 6.1% year-on-year; The net profit of listed company shareholders was 920 million, a year-on-year decrease of 10.73%. However, in 2016, the gross revenue of Guoxuan Hi-Tech and the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies increased by 73.3% and 76.35%, respectively.
According to third-party statistics, in 2017, the domestic power battery production capacity has exceeded 200GWh. However, even if China’s new energy vehicle production reaches 2 million vehicles in 2020, the demand for power lithium batteries is only 170Gwh. Therefore, Power battery capacity is currently a serious surplus.
In the state of extremely uneven supply and demand in the market, the natural law of the survival of the fittest has already been staged. In 2016, there were 116 shipping companies in the power battery market, but judging from the number of ten supporting catalog companies in 2017, 31 Enterprises have disappeared from the list, leaving only 85. More experts predict that in 2018, the number of power battery companies has further shrunk to less than 50.
Fang Jianhua, the former president of Guoxuan Hi-Tech, once told the media that 2017 is just the beginning and the next phase of elimination will be faster. By 2020, more than 90% of the power battery companies will be eliminated.
