If you open the Baidu engine to search for '2017 Bus Exports', you will see a lot of bus companies getting news on export orders. Since China's passenger car exports reached a small peak in 2014, in 2015, the number of passenger car exports continued to decline in 2016. So, if there are so many export orders in 2017, will it stop falling? What kind of trend will the bus exports show in 2018?
Various factors affect the continued decline in exports in 2017
According to statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in 2017, China exported a total of 53,000 passenger cars, a year-on-year decrease of 4.11%, and 428 non-integrated passenger vehicles were exported, a year-on-year drop of 76%.
'It can be said that passenger car exports in 2017 are the worst performers in all automobile export sectors in China. 'Xiong Weiguo, director of overseas marketing of Jinlong Bus, said that in 2017, China’s passenger car exports have grown substantially, and truck exports have remained relatively stable. Due to the large export base of passenger cars in previous years, the total export volume has declined compared to 2016.
In 2017, the global politics and the economic situation changed greatly. For bus companies, the intuitive feeling is that the situation in overseas markets is complex, and the liquidity of funds in the terminal market is not good.
In 2017, the payment method for many overseas customers was changed to deliver a partial deposit in advance, and the remaining funds will be fully paid after the bus is actually operated. This kind of payment method allows the car company's capital chain to bear a very large amount of money. The trials. 'A person in the industry disclosed to the reporter of China Automotive News: 'Now, as long as we examine and discover that customers in overseas markets have poor payment capacity, we will not receive orders. This is also one of the factors affecting the export volume of passenger cars. . '
Region: West Asia shows good Saudi demand
The decline in total exports does not mean that the sales performance of each region in the overseas market is not satisfactory. If the end-customers have good business capabilities and large demand, the export volume in the region can also maintain year-on-year growth.
'In 2017, Jinlong Bus's export growth in the Western Asia market was relatively large. Among them, nearly 800 large passenger cars were exported to Saudi Arabia. ' Xie Weiguo told reporters that 'Saudi Arabia is an important site for Muslim pilgrimages, and developed tourism makes it available every year. Updating the demand for vehicles. So the sales in the regional market have been relatively stable and the customer relationships have remained fairly good.
Li Kuangyin, deputy general manager of Ankai Bus International Marketing Co., also pointed out that 'West Asia is a traditional advantage market for China's passenger car exports. In 2017, this market segment once again achieved good results. Among them, exports are mainly concentrated in Saudi Arabia, and its There is a greater demand for school buses. '
In addition, there are new opportunities in the Southeast Asian market in recent years. For example, after the Burmese Democratic League government took office in 2016, it promoted some people’s livelihood projects, which involved the public transport sector. In 2017, Yutong, Futian Ouhui, and Ankai successively put passenger car products. Exported to Myanmar, the pace of export to the Southeast Asian market is accelerated again.
New Energy Bus: Immature use environment for overseas demand
In 2017, news repeatedly reported that China's new energy buses were exported to the United States, Japan, and other markets. So how was the export of new energy buses in China this year?
'In 2017, China's new energy bus exports have increased, but the total amount is still small, and the overall impact on China's passenger car exports is small. ' Xie Weiguo said.
Li Guoxi pointed out that although most of the overseas markets believe that the new energy bus is the main force leading the green development of the city, it is subject to a variety of reasons and is not currently being used on a large scale. As to whether it can be compared in the coming time, It is unclear how fast to promote new energy buses.
It is understood that under the guidance of policies and subsidies from the domestic market, new energy buses have a relatively large demand, and overseas markets still do not form a use environment compatible with new energy buses. In addition, the demand for road passenger transport in some overseas markets remains. Stability, the demand for vehicle power types has not changed much, and it is still dominated by traditional fuel vehicles, which also constrains the promotion of new energy buses to a certain extent.
In this regard, Xie Weiguo analyzed that the export opportunities for new energy buses also rely on auto makers to win and dig for themselves, but overall, the major opportunities come from regions with better economic development.
'At present, Jinlong pure electric buses are mainly sold to Taiwan, China, Hong Kong, and neighboring countries such as Thailand. In addition, some new energy passenger car products have been exported to the European region. ' Xie Weiguo said.
In 2016, the Hagrid supercapacitor bus was already exported to Serbia, and since then it has successively opened markets in Israel, Bulgaria, Italy, Austria and other countries along the country, and has begun to take shape in Central and Eastern European countries, effectively expanding the number of new energy vehicles in China. 'One Belt, One Road' promotion scope of countries along the route. ' Jiang Jinfeng, deputy general manager of Suzhou Jinlong Overseas Sales Company said.
It is reported that not long ago, Futian Ouhui New Energy Bus was officially put into operation in Gangneung, South Korea, serving the world-famous Pingchang Winter Olympics, and once again took the new energy bus products out of the country.
Market competition is fierce. It is difficult to walk on two legs.
At the recent bus market research meeting, Deputy Secretary General of the China Road Society Bus Division, Zhen Zhenqing, stated that in 2017, the domestic passenger car market was greatly affected by policy adjustments. In accordance with the principle of 'walking on two legs', the resources of the bus industry were allocated. Should be tilted toward exports. Bus companies are very subjective, but their actual results are not good. Bus exports still do not have the ability to share the risks of the development of the industry. He also stressed that training passenger car export capacity is a long-term process. Retreat.
Many people interviewed by reporters in the industry have relatively agreed with this view.
'Now the domestic passenger car market has shrunk, and many bus companies have naturally focused their attention on overseas markets. But in recent years, the volume of overseas markets has not expanded, and companies can only seize market share by their respective capabilities. What is certain is that , The future overseas market competition will be very fierce. 'Li Guoxi analysis.
Xie Weiguo also stated that: “At present, the domestic passenger car market is still in a state of oversupply. In particular, there are many bus manufacturers in China. After the overall domestic demand declines, each company must find a way out, and they will definitely look for production capacity abroad. The release of. '
Regarding how to achieve 'walking on two legs', Xie Weiguo stated that the international economic environment is complex and changeable. If there is not a good overseas market to digest our products, exports are difficult to profit. Therefore, where to invest Depth, careful analysis, can not blindly export, otherwise it will not achieve very good results.
In fact, in all categories of cars, the international competitiveness of China’s passenger car products is the strongest. Chinese passenger cars can find a living space in the European market, but overall they still take the medium to low-end route, and the customer groups are also scattered. This part of the market is also Need to be further developed. In Asia, South America, Africa market, due to the Chinese bus prices, product quality, spare parts supply, after-sales service and other aspects to meet the needs of the customer groups, very competitive.
2018: Hard to predict also holds hope
As for the trend of overseas passenger bus exports in 2018, many bus industry figures have expressed that it is difficult to predict.
First of all, the overseas market is a comprehensive market with many countries and regions, and there is no regular pattern to follow. Bulk orders may appear in some regions, but some places may also be reduced due to war, sanctions, disasters, etc. In addition, overseas The requirements for the service life of passenger cars in various countries are not nearly the same, some are seven or eight years, and some are more than ten years.
Secondly, overseas markets are also affected by factors such as politics and economy. 'For example, Saudi Arabia launched an anti-corruption campaign in the fourth quarter of 2017. Therefore, the demand for passenger cars in the West Asia region will change in 2018. It is not yet predictable.' .
In spite of this, people in the industry are still full of hope for the new year.
Xie Weiguo told the China Automotive News reporter: 'I estimate that the volume of passenger car exports in 2018 may increase. Because at present, the prices of international bulk commodities have increased, while the overseas target markets of Chinese bus companies are mainly resource-based. Country, so we have more expectations for 2018. '