In recent years, the domestic polypropylene production capacity has been continuously released, and the self-sufficient polypropylene rate has been continuously increased. As a result, the import and export volume of polypropylene has also changed.
First, PP imports and forecast for the next three years
In recent years, the increase in polypropylene production has intensified the competition in the domestic market, the low-price competition is frequent, and the import volume has been squeezed. In 2017, the dependence on China’s PP imports was around 20%. In 2015, the import volume of PP in China was 4.88 million tons in 2016. Affected by the expansion of China's PP plant and the low domestic prices, imported PP materials are difficult to obtain in the domestic market. Therefore, the import volume of PP in 2016 was reduced to 4.57 million tons. In 2017, the downstream market of polypropylene in China was suppressed by environmental factors and plastic woven and other materials were low. The added value of the industry is sluggish, but high-rigidity injection molding, high-melting-index fibers and other industries are developing well, and some high-end polypropylene raw materials still need to rely on imports. Therefore, the import market for PP increased in 2017, with import volume at 4.745 million tons. 3.83%.
Regarding the future status of PP import and export, based on the total import volume from 2014 to 2017, we can conclude that the average growth rate of PP imports in recent years is around -1.9%. In the next three years, there will be more capacity expansion of domestic PP units. The situation of excess is gradually increasing, and dependence on import sources gradually decreases.
Second, PP exports and forecast for the next three years
On the other hand, the export volume of PP shows an increasing trend year by year. From 2015 to 2017, the average growth rate of PP exports is about 30%. The rapid growth of export volume is inseparable from the rapid expansion of domestic production capacity. In the next three years, As the production of homopolypropylene gradually increases, domestic sales pressure is greater, and active exploitation of export channels has become a new profit growth point. At present, China's polypropylene is gradually becoming internationalized, and it is gradually opening its export channels, and will therefore also become a solution to China’s future. Polypropylene industry supply and demand in contradiction breakthroughs, polypropylene exports in recent years, there has been a slow rise.
Third, 'quantity' triggers 'quality change'
At present, China's general-purpose materials have presented a surplus situation. Despite the continuous increase in polypropylene production, some new types of polypropylene with more unique properties have been introduced, such as transparent polypropylene, high melt strength polypropylene, etc., but most of the domestic modification Polypropylene products can not fully meet the needs of users. New production facilities are mostly homogenized, low-end general-purpose materials, and technological gaps. They cannot meet domestic downstream requirements on special materials, so high-end special materials must also be used. Depends on imports.
It is estimated that the total consumption will reach about 30 million tons by 2020. The consumption area will remain basically unchanged, but the proportion of low-end products such as woven products will gradually decrease, while the proportion of injection molding products, fiber products and tube plates will increase, stimulating The rapid growth in the demand for polypropylene in China. In addition, high-transparency polypropylene, spun-bonded nonwovens, melt-blown nonwovens, fine denier and ultra-fine-denier polypropylene fibers, household electrical appliances, and automotive specialty materials will be developed in the future. the key of.