Digital account
'I saw trees not seeing the forest' Leading to deficit statistics 'Void high'
In the trade imbalance dispute, the tens of billions of dollars in the US-China deficit that has been repeatedly mentioned is veiled with a mysterious veil due to its huge volume and different calculations.
According to US statistics, the total trade deficit between the United States and China in 2017 was 375.2 billion U.S. dollars, accounting for 47% of the total volume of Sino-U.S. trade in goods;
According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs of China, this figure is 275.8 billion U.S. dollars;
How large is the US-China trade deficit? Why is there a different version of the same data?
Stephen Roach, a senior researcher at Yale University, said that the imbalance in Sino-U.S. economic and trade relations is largely related to the distortions in the supply chain. According to the OECD and World Trade Organization’s trade value-adding calculation methods, the US’s trade deficit with China is at least three points lower. one.
In the era of global value chain, the production process of a certain product is carried out in different countries or regions. The traditional algorithm counts all surpluses on the export products of end products and cannot objectively reflect trade imbalances and value distribution. The value-added algorithm is Can really show a country's profitability in the value chain.
Take the Apple mobile phone as an example. According to the 2009 figures, the wholesale price of an Apple mobile phone assembled and manufactured in China is US$178.96, of which only US$6.5 worth of value was generated in China, and the rest are from US designers and South Korea, Japan. And other parts suppliers get.
In other words, the U.S. trade deficit can be broken down into U.S. trade deficits with countries such as Japan and South Korea. If this part is eliminated, the U.S. trade deficit with China on the Apple mobile phone will be reduced from 1.9 billion U.S. dollars to 73 million U.S. dollars.
For a long time, in the low-end position of the global value chain, despite the fact that China’s “world factory” has limited profit, the book value has increased greatly. According to Chinese statistics, in 2017, 61% of China’s trade surplus in merchandise came from processing trade. The report of the Chinese Academy of Sciences shows that the trade surplus between China and the United States as measured by value-added measures is 44.4% lower than the trade surplus between China and the United States measured by gross value statistics.
The figure of trade deficit also masked the difference in sales between Chinese and US companies in the other country's subsidiaries. 'Trade is not purely import and export, but also considers the sales of multinational companies in the region.' said Zhang Monan, a researcher at China International Economic Exchange Center. .
Take the example of cars and mobile phones. Currently, the sales volume of U.S. General Motors in China is higher than that of its domestic market, and the number of U.S.-used U.S. mobile phones currently used by the U.S. is more than double that of the U.S., which has not been able to achieve the U.S.-China trade deficit statistics. Correctly embodied.
According to statistics from China Customs, the Sino-US trade surplus arising from the import and export activities of foreign-funded enterprises accounts for 59% of the total trade surplus between China and the United States. The Sino-U.S. trade surplus generated by domestic-funded enterprises' import and export activities only accounts for 41% of the total trade surplus between China and the United States.
A Deutsche Bank research report pointed out that the total sales difference is more comprehensive than the trade balance reflects the economic relations between the two countries. The total sales difference includes both the import and export trade balance, but also includes the two parties directly through the foreign investment or the establishment of subsidiaries in the destination country. Production and sales of sales.
Zhang Moannan said that if the deduction of related transactions of multinational corporations, the U.S. trade deficit will drop by 2/3, and the deficit against China will drop by 30%. After deducting the export of foreign-funded enterprises in China, the US deficit against China will decrease by 73%.
In the statistical analysis of trade deficits, there are also problems in the caliber of US statistics. Experts pointed out that the United States has generally included part of Hong Kong's re-export trade in China, but in fact there are trade re-exports in other economies. And the United States has to export For the calculation of the bank price, the import amount is calculated based on the CIF price, thus including double the amount of loading, transportation, insurance and other expenses into the US-China trade deficit, which are the reasons for the “unreal” value of the trade deficit.
The “digital difference” between China and the United States also masks the rapid expansion of the U.S. trade surplus with China in the trade in services. The U.S. government cited trade data that included only trade in goods and did not reflect service trade, and China was the largest surplus country in U.S. service trade. .
According to data from the Ministry of Commerce, during the past ten years, the US service industry’s exports to China have increased five-fold. In 2016, the U.S. trade surplus with China reached 55.7 billion U.S. dollars, about 40 times that of 2006.
Wang Suwen, deputy minister of the Ministry of Commerce and deputy deputy to international trade negotiations, said that a country wants to buy and another country wants to sell. Therefore, a surplus is not a government's ability to set a surplus. It is determined by the economic structure and industrial competitiveness of the two countries. .
"The statistical data on the U.S. trade deficit is clearly 'I see trees not seeing the forest'. "Tu Xinquan, a professor at the University of International Business and Economics, said that it is logical that a country and some countries have a trade deficit, and other countries have a trade surplus." The overall trade balance is the most important.
Benefit account
Trade 'imbalance' does not equal trade 'unfair'
The “unfair treatment in trade and other aspects” often held by the United States has often become one of the excuse and tools for launching protectionist measures.
However, trade imbalance does not mean that trade is not fair.
Do you lose your business when you do business with China?
The trade surplus is reflected in China, but the trade surplus is in the United States. With the high-end position in the global value chain, the United States has become the biggest beneficiary. China, which exports labor-intensive industries as its leading industry, maintains a lower inflation rate in the United States and reduces production. Costs and 'processing factories' that promote industrial transformation and upgrading.
Insiders pointed out that the trade surplus between China and the United States does exist and the amount is relatively large, but it does not mean that China unilaterally obtains huge benefits from Sino-U.S. bilateral trade. Large-scale multinational companies are the main profit-making groups, among which there is no shortage of US-funded enterprises in China.
Three scholars from the University of California in the United States published a paper in 2007 to discuss who has gained value in the global innovation system. The article took the example of the third-generation 30GB iPod produced in 2005. The product retails for $299 and the product is shipped from the factory. The cost is 144.4 US dollars.
The difference between the retail price and the cost price is about 155 US dollars, of which 80 US dollars is the profit of Apple. China is responsible for the assembly of the iPod, and the value obtained from it is only 0.11 US dollars.
From the perspective of added value, China has the lowest profit; In terms of profits, multinationals in the United States make the most profit.
On the one hand, the Chinese market has opened its doors to American companies. American brands such as automobiles, mobile phones, and computers have been seen everywhere in China. On the other hand, Chinese companies have frequently blocked investment in the United States. Such unequal openness has caused trade imbalances. important reason.
Sino-U.S. bilateral trade and two-way investment have indeed contributed to the development of the U.S. economy. The Ministry of Commerce shows that U.S.-China bilateral trade and two-way investment created about 2.6 million jobs for the United States in 2015, which contributed to U.S. economic growth. 216 billion U.S. dollars, equivalent to 1.2% of U.S. gross domestic product. With the increase in purchasing power of the Chinese people, U.S. exports of goods and services to China will increase to 369 billion U.S. dollars by 2026 and to 520 billion U.S. dollars by 2050. .
In this process, the biggest beneficiary is undoubtedly the American people. A report released by the Oxford Economic Research Institute shows that the export of Chinese goods to the United States has lowered the price level of the United States by 1 to 1.5 percentage points. China-US trade can help A typical American family with an average annual income of $56,500 saves more than $850 a year.
Jia Jinjing, director of the Macro Research Department of Chung Yeung Financial Research Institute, Renmin University of China, pointed out that trying to reduce the trade deficit by adding tariffs is equivalent to 'sick' in US trade, but it makes China 'take medicine'.
The U.S. government should face up to the deep structural causes of domestic trade deficits, not simply blamed on economic globalization and major trading partners. By relying on 'teeth' does not solve structural problems, it may bite itself. 'He Say.
New inspiration
Behind the trade war is the layout of the economic development 'track'
Considering that he was subjected to 'unfair' treatment, he unilaterally initiated sanctions, and the U.S. unilateral protectionism was opposed and criticized by people from all walks of life at home and abroad.
The spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce has pointed out that the United States imposes taxes on Chinese products. This is a flagrant violation of the rules of the World Trade Organization. It completely ignores the multilateral trading system. It is a contemptuous and trampling of multilateral rules.
Lamy, the former Director-General of the WTO, believes that when looking at trade, it is considered that exports are a good thing. The idea that import is a bad thing is selfish and contradicts the nature of trade.
In the process of reconstructing the new round of international trade rules, untimely rules will have to change, but openness and inclusiveness, win-win cooperation, and the concept of balanced development shall not change. Adhere to the promotion of trade and investment liberalization and facilitation, and play a role in maintaining the multilateral trading system The role should not change.
According to industry insiders, lowering the trade surplus between China and the United States requires the two countries to further open up to the outside world, opening up and encouraging service trade, liberalizing the US export restrictions on high-tech products to China, and perfecting trade liberalization mechanisms and market competition mechanisms.
Behind the trade imbalance between China and the United States is the game between the economic structure difference and the manufacturing pattern of the two countries.
China, which was once at the low end of the industrial chain and serves as a 'factory of the world', is now accumulating energy in manufacturing powerhouses. Advanced manufacturing represented by rail transit, electronic information, etc. is moving to the forefront of the world. The “Made in China 2025” industry Layout and manufacturing planning draws a road map towards a manufacturing powerhouse, which also puts pressure on many countries, including the United States.
"Today's 'setting limits' is a game about tomorrow's development potential." Luo Qingqi, a senior director of Pare Consultancy, said that whether it is the United States domestic tax cut, letting the manufacturing industry reflow or increase the import tariffs on China's information technology industry, The limitation of intellectual property rights and technology transfer has reflected the hidden troubles of the United States.
'This is a layout of the 'track'. 'Lu Shan, dean of the China Electronic Information Industry Development Institute, said that this round of trade imbalances has also made us more aware of the gaps in some areas, and we have firmly advanced Determination of technology accumulation and industrial layout.
The best way to deal with a trade war is to practice internal strength.
As China has always emphasized, China’s determination and confidence in opening its markets to the outside world has not changed, and it has become firmer. It will not change its 'course' due to external pressure.
Openness and cooperation are also the directions for joint efforts of the two countries to open new economic and trade models in the new era.