As an outsider, he did a good job of predicting Apple's strategy. From some perspectives, Apple has spent several years laying the foundation of the strategy's hardware, not only investing heavily in the development of its own chips, but also its iOS. The integration of elements in the mobile operating system and the MacOS desktop system makes processor replacement feasible.
In spite of this, abandoning Intel processors will bring a series of troubles. How Apple will influence the next decade will affect the company's development.
Chip partner
Since 2006, Intel has provided processors for Apple’s Mac series. The relationship between the two is a long-term cooperation and mutual benefit. Although the MacBook and iMac are not as attractive to users as the iPhone, However, Apple still sold nearly $7 billion worth of MacBooks and desktops in the last quarter. In addition, according to reports, Apple provided Intel with approximately 4% revenue last year.
This seems to be a fairly symbiotic relationship. However, Apple’s desire to be independent is not surprising. Considering that the company has developed A-series chips for the iPhone, there are also S-series for the Apple Watch. Chips and W series chips for wireless headsets. In addition, the coprocessors for Apple's Mac series are also produced by the company. Just a year ago, Apple began designing its own graphics and graphics processor GPU.
It seems that at this moment, Intel chips appear more like an exception in the Mac series. Apple hopes to produce these chips on its own for the same reason that the main Andriod smartphone manufacturers have always wanted to abandon Qualcomm: If you You can do it yourself, and don't rely on others.
Forrester Research analyst Frank Gillette, a market research firm, said: 'Looks like what they argue is getting deeper and deeper. That means that the more technical barriers you control, the more you can improve. The emergence of 'A series chips allows Apple to customize the chip specifically for iPhone's needs. The W series chip provides the Air Pod with even more powerful Bluetooth capabilities. Even the iMac Pro has a sub-T2 chip from Apple Inc. Device security. Using the same strategy for traditional computer products also helps Apple stand out. It also means that Apple may release new products at the pace of its own technology upgrades, without the need to coordinate the progress of Intel's products.
All of this seems to have proven that it is not only possible that Apple's Mac products will discard Intel chips, but it is inevitable. However, anyone can tell you that there is a huge gap between ideals and reality.
Power transfer
As Gulman has reported, Apple hopes to replace the X86 architecture chips that have been used for more than a decade with chips based on ARM designs, just like the chips used in iPhone smartphones. However, there will be at least two such chip replacements. Huge obstacles.
The first is the chip itself. The chip architecture based on ARM is more efficient, but in terms of power alone, it can't be compared with Intel's high-end products. Although the report predicts that Apple will not be able to gradually replace the Mac chip by 2020 at least. However, observers will still doubt whether the ARM chip architecture has enough time to catch up with Intel's product performance.
Patrick Moorhead, founder of Moor Insights & Strategy, a market research firm, said: 'From a computational point of view, an ARM architecture chip is equivalent to an Intel Core i3 processor or a low-end Core i5 processor.' Murherd compared the performance of ARM chips with entry-level Intel chips. 'I couldn't imagine that their processors could approach the performance of Xeon or Core i7 by 2020.'
Of course, there are potential solutions. Apple can simply replace its entry-level MacBook with an ARM-based processor and continue to adopt Intel chips on the high-end Mac series until the ARM chip architecture meets its product requirements. In the next few years, Apple may shift the role of some traditional processor CPUs to its already effective control of the image processing chip GPU.
"We have begun to handle similar tasks by integrating GPUs," said Eric Hanselman, principal analyst at 451 Research. "When GPU acceleration becomes one of the core elements of more complex computing problems, ARM The architecture actually begins to make more sense because customers can now more easily integrate and build custom environments.
Segmenting its product line looks like the strategy that Apple is most likely to implement; Gulman describes a so-called 'multi-step transition' process, but it also creates a lot of trouble for developers and consumers. According to reports Apple A platform is being developed to allow developers to write the same applications for MacOS and iOS, but this mixed mode will cause complications, especially if some devices use ARM chips and other devices still use Intel chips. in this way.
'MacOS devices use Intel chips, but iOS devices do not,' Moorehead pointed out, 'MacOS and iOS are very different in multitasking, the number of threads used, and peripheral support. You can almost Anything you want is stuffed into your Mac, but you must enable it before using it on iOS.
At the same time, developers may need to re-develop OS X versions based on the ARM chip architecture for their applications, just as they did when Apple transitioned to Intel chips a decade ago.
"There is no magical way for Apple to eliminate this complexity. Just as we saw Apple transition from PowerPC to Intel, there is no magic that can make Mac's PowerPC applications run directly on Intel chips," Mu Held said, 'Most applications must be recompiled, many need to be rewritten.'
If the Mac series is replaced with an ARM chip architecture, Apple may also find that users encounter various problems when using the MacOS-iOS mashup system. It was not long ago when Microsoft tried to introduce the mobile user interface to the Windows 8 operating system. When desktop, it caused fierce opposition from users. This change made users feel confused and annoyed most of the time. Although Apple has made some adjustments, there is a gap between the MacOS operating system and the iOS operating system. Much in common - Apple's file system released last spring can switch freely between the two operating systems - but Apple must overcome the ingrained habits that users have developed over the years when using Apple devices.
'In my opinion, the problems of different operating systems are very important, especially considering that they have completely separated the graphical user interface from the touch interface,' Gillette said. 'Seeking truth from facts, they are facing changes in the replacement of processors. A huge technical obstacle, and it is also a huge emotional challenge for the user. '
At the same time, from now until 2020, Mac developers have little incentive to invest a lot of work into the redevelopment of related applications. And potential Mac buyers have full reason to sit in and look outside. This means significant Changes are likely to have serious product stagnation.
Both
If time is stretched, all of these potential problems can be overcome. Relatively speaking, Apple's gain seems to make it worthwhile to work hard.
Hanselman pointed out, 'I am sure that the attractiveness of the ARM licensing model is the real reason for Apple to abandon Intel's processors. This will bring more control to Apple. This will not only allow Apple to freely use its own capabilities. Controlling also helps defend the company's intellectual property.
But breaking up with Intel is not as simple as turning around. If this is the case, Apple did it as early as a few years ago. This will require the company's senior management of the risk, the hard work of the developer, and the need for the MacBook. The user's wishes. In particular, Apple should consider when and how ARM-based processors meet the needs of professional users.
Apple's reason for adopting its own processor on the Mac series is obvious. However, it is not surprising and not so easy to drop Intel. This is how Apple will reshape the future without destroying the future.