China and the United States have not been very calm recently. The shadow of the trade war may threaten the revenue of many technology companies at any time. After all, China is an important market for American technology companies. Therefore, the stock price of technology companies is very unstable during this period.
Intel’s stock price plunged 9.2% yesterday and inadvertently created a two-year record low in Intel’s stock price. Is this a human distortion or a moral failure? (False), it’s not. The key reason for Intel’s stock price plummet is A rumor - Apple will use Intel processors to replace Intel X86 processors.
The rumors are not new at all. They are passed almost every year. They have become the same player's heart as AMD. However, this time Apple's rumors seem to be more reliable. Even the timeline has it. It is estimated that it will be in 2020. Started to replace Intel processors with their own processors, mainly for Macs. Is the rumor really a reality?
Compared to the vast majority of Windows PCs, Apple's computer sales are too small. Why does the rumors about Apple's decision to use Intel processors give Intel so much fluctuation?
Apple sold 19,200,000 Mac computers in 2017, and its total revenue was only 11% of Apple's $220 billion, which is less than half of the iPhone.
For Intel, Apple's revenue is about 2.8-3.7 billion U.S. dollars, while Intel’s annual revenue is more than 60 billion U.S. dollars, but PC personal computer business accounts for more than 34 billion U.S. dollars. The proportion of Intel's side is really not low, so after the major bad news that has been abandoned, it is not difficult to understand that Intel's stock price will be so plunge.
Why does Apple split up with Intel? Saving money is not the only difference.
Although the sales volume is much lower than that of Windows PCs, it is not as important as the iPhone. However, let's not forget that Apple started with Macs. Until now, many antique Macs can be sold at a good price as a collectible. Extraordinary, because the Mac computer is very unique regardless of software or hardware, unique to the beginning of Apple chose hardware other than the X86-compatible PC, before 2005, the processors are looking for IBM customized Power chip, after which Jobs could not bear Power It was only after the processor decided to form an alliance with Intel. From this Mac computer also used the X86 processor.
The cooperation between the two companies is still very close, Intel in order to take care of the special needs of Apple, many processors not only first on the Mac platform, but also in accordance with Apple's requirements to improve, such as the previously highly anticipated Iris / Iris Pro There are even the strongest cores with 128M eDRAM cache. These processors were originally developed for Apple. Other manufacturers may not be able to afford it.
Intel’s focus on Apple is no less important than its former ally, Microsoft, but in recent years there have been no rumors about Apple’s abandonment of Intel’s processors and their use of their own processors, especially after Apple’s A-series processors became more powerful. The first 64-bit ARM architecture, A8X triple-core, A10 quad-core, A11 six-core running breakdown, Apple's self-developed processor performance is increasingly awesome, and the gap between the X86 processor is shrinking, the rumors have become more recent.
If this event eventually becomes a reality, then why did I do this Apple? Earlier we mentioned that Apple's Mac computers cost about 3 billion U.S. dollars a year to purchase chips. Anyone can think of replacing apples with their own products and saving money. , Saving billions of dollars annually.
However, this idea only sees the surface, not seeing the essence, Although Apple's self-developed processors can save purchase costs, the research and development cost of high-performance chips is not a small amount. The amount of manpower and resources required is also a huge sum of money. Therefore, even if Apple develops its own chips, its starting point is not to save money. Is to 'master core technology'.
How is Apple different from other technology companies? Apple's products have unique value whether it is an iPhone, an iPad or a Mac. Whether it is real value or the fan’s belief in it, Apple is relying on this uniqueness. (zhuang) (qian) Saved, even if some Macbook users installed Windows system, but in his view the Macbook is still better than other notebooks.
For Apple, it is more important to maintain its unique leading position. In particular, the current CEO Cook is a very good supply chain management expert. He is very good at controlling rare resources through the supply chain.
On the iPhone, Apple has begun to do so. In the past few years, Apple first used fingerprint recognition and a 64-bit processor to open the distance from the Android camp. Last year, Apple on the iPhone X resolutely gave up Touch ID fingerprinting. Instead of using FaceID as a 3D face recognition, the Android camp hasn’t had 3D face recognition until now, and now Android’s face unlocking or 2D plane scanning is too far away from Face ID. , Apple also throw off the Qualcomm processor, MediaTek, Hass and other manufacturers, A11 Bonic processor not only performance, but also use self-developed GPU, and increase the AI unit, also leading other manufacturers.
so, If Apple really replaces Intel with a high-performance processor, this is just an extension of their market strategy. It is just from the iPhone to the PC platform.
On the other hand, rumours that Apple abandoned Intel processors for many years have not been translated into reality. This shows that this process will not be rapid. The current deadline is 2020, and there are still 2 years before. And if Apple wants to really play the role of this big killer, there are three big mountains to read, not so smooth.
First off: How is Apple's self-developed processor performance?
Apple's own processor to replace Intel? The first question is whether their processor qualified? The premise of the replacement is that Apple's own processor performance is not worse than the use of Intel processors, at least not should be much worse, otherwise the user experience It is not a hierarchy, this issue is the first and the most important one.
In the development of ARM processors, Apple is a superior player, not only an early ARM shareholder, but also an authorized user of the instruction set of ARM processors, and has the ability to develop its own compatible ARM architecture. After A7, the performance of Apple's A-series processors has continued to improve. Rushing, the Android camp processor, including Qualcomm, also can not be hoped for, especially in the Geekbench 4 test, Apple processors can really seconds seconds.
Taking the iPhone X as an example, the GK4 runs 4205 points in single core and 10123 points in multi-core. It is necessary to know that the 4000 points of the GK4 is based on the Intel Core i7-6600U processor, which means that the A11 single core performance completely exceeds that of Intel. Low-power Core i7 processor, the latest Core i5-8250U single core 8-core Core low-end processor, multi-core but also 3869 points, 10966 points, it seems that Apple A series processors beyond Intel processors is not a problem? Unfortunately, the GK4 running points are just a part of it. As a cross-platform testing software, GK's testing is not unquestioned. The iOS platform has various challenges, and the X86 processor has not achieved the desired performance.
The problem is that the problem is whether the performance of ARM processors meets or even exceeds that of X86. This has also been a long debate. Many vendors in the ARM camp have demonstrated that their ARM processors perform better than X86, but all these tests are Conditional, because different architecture processors in different applications do have different performances, ARM won the X86 is not an illusion, but in the current situation, we can safely say that X86 is not comparable to ARM in high performance. First, the ARM is a RISC RISC architecture, and the X86 is a CISC complex instruction architecture. ARM only began to support high-performance OoO out-of-order instruction execution on the A15 architecture. This was supported by X86.
The other point is that Intel still has the most advanced semiconductor technology on the earth. Don't look at TSMC. Samsung claims to be leading Intel at 10nm and 7nm nodes, but they have no experience in manufacturing CPUs with higher performance than mobile processors. The high-performance processor is complex, and the Intel X86 processor can now easily achieve the frequency of 4.5GHz. The ARM processor is currently still 2.5GHz. The gap between the two is still very large.
In a nutshell, Apple wants to replace the Intel processor with a self-developed processor. The technical difficulty is still very large. After all, the Mac computer is not a touch screen device such as an iPhone or an iPad. This is a real-world PC. The running program is Differently, the requirements of large programs are much higher.
However, optimistic point of view, 2020 to now there are still 2 years, Apple still has time to chase, in addition Intel X86 processor performance is not as strong at the desktop level, the Core M series is a typical example, Apple 2 After years of using self-developed processors to abuse low-end X86 processors, it is theoretically possible.
Second off: Apple Mac OS system to adapt to ARM, software is also a problem
Even if Apple can get a high-performance ARM processor, the second problem also comes, that is, the underlying hardware instruction set has changed, Apple's Mac OS system has to change, third-party applications also have to follow up This is also a big project.
Apple has a strong system development capability. Mac OS from X86 to ARM support is not a big problem for Apple, but Apple has not been doing so. They have always wanted to get through platforms such as iPhone, iPad and Mac computers. Apple has integrated the notification information of iOS system with Mac OS, so once the same Apple ID receives the information, it can be seen on the computer, tablet, and mobile phone. This is the first step of Apple's plan.
Once the iOS and Mac OS systems are integrated, Apple can accumulate a large number of APP applications on iOS that can seamlessly access Mac computers. Not only does it bring Apple more software revenues, but more importantly, Apple has unified the software. The platform can experience Apple hardware and software products on a platform-wide basis. This can build a moat for the Apple platform. If other manufacturers do not have system-level integration capabilities, it is impossible to compete with Apple.
The third level: Does Apple still need to baseband? Don't worry, this is normal operation
After solving the hardware and software platforms, there seems to be no obstacle for Apple Mac computers to use their own processors. We should not think there is a third barrier. The third barrier is related to the network baseband. What does this have to do with Mac computers? The answer is yes, why did Apple wait until 2020 to replace the Intel processor with a self-developed processor? In addition to the above-mentioned upgrade performance improvement, there is also a potential factor that Apple is still engaged in its own baseband. 2020 is recognized as the 5G first year.
Apple has always emphasized multiple suppliers in its supply chain management to prevent the emergence of a single person who is subjecting itself to personal control. However, Apple may only use Qualcomm products for a long period of time on baseband, and the royalty paid to Qualcomm in 2016 will be 28%. Billion Dollars is a Qualcomm VVVIP customer, because only Qualcomm could provide the best full Netcom baseband for a few years, but in 2017 Apple opted to face up with Qualcomm and fight against the lawsuit, playing a patent lawsuit. In this fight, Apple The purpose is to promote and increase pressure through the use of Intel baseband to Qualcomm, and seek to sign a new patent licensing agreement, because Apple is also engaged in its own baseband chip, Qualcomm's patent is not passed, can not not work.
The patent lawsuits between the two parties have not yet resulted. Both sides are long-time masters of patent warfare. Therefore, this is a long-term process. It will not be known for a time. The baseband of Apple's self-study is expected to be published in 2019, taking into account test verification. Other issues, such as the official application of 2020, can be expected.
In the next two years of computers or mobile phones, 'online at any time' is a must, faster, more connected 5G networks will also be commercially available in 2020, Apple's products will naturally not be absent, and before the release of 5G Qualcomm In the cooperation list, Samsung, Huawei, and Apple are not on the customer list. These three companies are not only global TOP3 mobile phone manufacturers, but also have the ability to engage in 5G chips themselves. Apple will soon become a giant 5G that cannot be ignored.
It's not the first time that Apple has abandoned Intel processors. It wasn't the last time. But the rumors became clearer and more and more credible.
For Apple, using the self-developed processor to unify the iPhone, iPad and Mac platforms is not only saving money, but the key to controlling the core of the ecosystem. It will not be subject to human control on key components, while also achieving unique differentiation. With the iOS platform, there has been a profound accumulation of high-quality applications and games everywhere. Once connected to the Mac platform, the vitality and attractiveness of this ecosystem is unmatched by other manufacturers. This will help Apple win the competition.
The dream of Apple's unified platform is beautiful, but the road is also tortuous. Apple not only needs to continue to upgrade the performance of its own processor, but also to solve problems such as software platform and network baseband. Each task is extremely difficult and costly. When it was time-consuming, it was fortunate that Apple had a large amount of money, and there was capital to turn such a huge plan into a reality. At that time, Apple users would continue to walk in front of other mobile phones and computer users.
