National Bureau of Statistics Service Survey Center
China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing
I. Operation of China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index
In March 2018, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 51.5%, up 1.2% from the previous month, and the manufacturing industry showed steady development.
In terms of the size of the company, the PMI of large-sized companies is 52.4%, which is 0.2 percentage point higher than that of the previous month. It continues to be in the expansion range. The PMI for small and medium-sized enterprises is 50.4% and 50.1%, respectively, up by 1.4 and 5.3 percentage points from the previous month. Above the point.
From the classification index, among the five sub-indices that make up the manufacturing PMI, the production index, new order index, and supplier delivery time index are above the critical point, and the raw material inventory index and the employee index are below the critical point.
The production index was 53.1%, which was an increase of 2.4 percentage points from the previous month. It was located in an expansion zone, indicating that with the start of the Spring Festival, the concentration of manufacturing production accelerated.
The new orders index was 53.3%, up 2.3% from the previous month, which was higher than the critical point, indicating that the pace of expansion in the manufacturing market has accelerated.
The inventory index of raw materials was 49.6%, which was 0.3 percentage point higher than last month. It recovered for three consecutive months and was below the critical point, indicating that the decline in the inventory of major raw materials in the manufacturing industry continued to narrow.
The employee index was 49.1%, which was a 1.0 percentage point increase from the previous month. It was below the critical point, indicating that the reduction in the number of employees in the manufacturing industry was reduced.
The supplier delivery time index was 50.1%, which was 1.7 percentage points higher than the previous month, which was higher than the critical point, indicating that the manufacturing material supplier's delivery time has accelerated.
Table 1 China's manufacturing PMI and composition index (seasonally adjusted)
| Unit: % | ||||||
| PMI | ||||||
| produce | new order | Raw materials in stock | Employees | Supplier delivery time | ||
| March 2017 | 51.8 | 54.2 | 53.3 | 48.3 | 50.0 | 50.3 |
| April 2017 | 51.2 | 53.8 | 52.3 | 48.3 | 49.2 | 50.5 |
| May 2017 | 51.2 | 53.4 | 52.3 | 48.5 | 49.4 | 50.2 |
| June 2017 | 51.7 | 54.4 | 53.1 | 48.6 | 49.0 | 49.9 |
| July 2017 | 51.4 | 53.5 | 52.8 | 48.5 | 49.2 | 50.1 |
| August 2017 | 51.7 | 54.1 | 53.1 | 48.3 | 49.1 | 49.3 |
| September 2017 | 52.4 | 54.7 | 54.8 | 48.9 | 49.0 | 49.3 |
| October 2017 | 51.6 | 53.4 | 52.9 | 48.6 | 49.0 | 48.7 |
| November 2017 | 51.8 | 54.3 | 53.6 | 48.4 | 48.8 | 49.5 |
| December 2017 | 51.6 | 54.0 | 53.4 | 48.0 | 48.5 | 49.3 |
| January 2018 | 51.3 | 53.5 | 52.6 | 48.8 | 48.3 | 49.2 |
| February 2018 | 50.3 | 50.7 | 51.0 | 49.3 | 48.1 | 48.4 |
| March 2018 | 51.5 | 53.1 | 53.3 | 49.6 | 49.1 | 50.1 |
Table 2 Other relevant indicators of China's manufacturing PMI (seasonally adjusted)
| Unit: % | ||||||||
| New export Orders | import | Purchase quantity | The main raw material purchase price | Factory price | Finished product in stock | In hand Orders | Expected production and business activities | |
| March 2017 | 51.0 | 50.5 | 53.4 | 59.3 | 53.2 | 47.3 | 46.1 | 58.3 |
| April 2017 | 50.6 | 50.2 | 51.9 | 51.8 | 48.7 | 48.2 | 45.0 | 56.6 |
| May 2017 | 50.7 | 50.0 | 51.5 | 49.5 | 47.6 | 46.6 | 45.4 | 56.8 |
| June 2017 | 52.0 | 51.2 | 52.5 | 50.4 | 49.1 | 46.3 | 47.2 | 58.7 |
| July 2017 | 50.9 | 51.1 | 52.7 | 57.9 | 52.7 | 46.1 | 46.3 | 59.1 |
| August 2017 | 50.4 | 51.4 | 52.9 | 65.3 | 57.4 | 45.5 | 46.1 | 59.5 |
| September 2017 | 51.3 | 51.1 | 53.8 | 68.4 | 59.4 | 44.2 | 47.4 | 59.4 |
| October 2017 | 50.1 | 50.3 | 53.2 | 63.4 | 55.2 | 46.1 | 45.6 | 57.0 |
| November 2017 | 50.8 | 51.0 | 53.5 | 59.8 | 53.8 | 46.1 | 46.6 | 57.9 |
| December 2017 | 51.9 | 51.2 | 53.6 | 62.2 | 54.4 | 45.8 | 46.3 | 58.7 |
| January 2018 | 49.5 | 50.4 | 52.9 | 59.7 | 51.8 | 47.0 | 45.3 | 56.8 |
| February 2018 | 49.0 | 49.8 | 50.8 | 53.4 | 49.2 | 46.7 | 44.9 | 58.2 |
| March 2018 | 51.3 | 51.3 | 53.0 | 53.4 | 48.9 | 47.3 | 46.0 | 58.7 |
II. Operation of China's Non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index
In March 2018, China's non-manufacturing business activity index was 54.6%, which was a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous month. Non-manufacturing industries continued to maintain a stable and rapid operation pattern.
In terms of sub-sectors, the service business activity index for the service industry was 53.6%. Although it was 0.2 percentage point lower than last month, it was still higher than the previous year's average. The service industry maintained a steady expansion. From the perspective of industry categories, the railway transportation industry, the air transport industry, The industries such as the postal courier industry, telecommunication broadcasting and television and satellite transmission services, internet software and information technology services, monetary and financial services, capital market services, and insurance industry are all located in a relatively high economic range of 55.0% and above, showing strong performance. Expansion momentum. The business activity index of road transportation industry, catering industry and real estate industry was below the critical point, and the total business volume declined. The business activity index of construction industry was 60.7%, which was 3.2% higher than the previous month. Construction industry production and operation Activities have been significantly accelerated.
The new orders index was 50.1%, which was 0.4 percentage point lower than last month. It was still above the critical point, indicating that the demand growth rate of the non-manufacturing market has dropped slightly. By sector, the new order index for the service industry was 49.8%, compared with the previous month. It decreased by 0.9%, which was lower than the critical point. The new order index for construction industry was 52.0%, up 2.5 percentage points from the previous month and rising above the critical point.
The price index of input products was 49.9%, which was 3.3% lower than last month. The price was slightly below the critical point, indicating that the overall level of input prices for non-manufacturing enterprises used for business activities fell slightly. Looking at the sector, the input prices of service industries The index was 50.3%, down 2.1 percentage points from the previous month. The construction industry input price index was 48.0%, down 9.9 percentage points from the previous month.
The sales price index was 49.3%, down by 0.6 percentage point from the previous month. It was below the critical point, which indicated that the overall level of non-manufacturing sales prices had declined. From the perspective of the industry, the service industry sales price index was 48.9%, which was a decrease of 0.7 from the previous month. Percentage points. The construction industry sales price index was 51.9%, up 0.2% from the previous month.
The employee index was 49.2%, which was a decrease of 0.4% from the previous month, and continued to fall below the critical point. By sector, the service industry employee index was 48.6%, down 0.3% from the previous month. The construction industry employee index was 52.6%. , 0.9% lower than last month.
The business activity expectation index was 61.1%, which was 0.1 percentage point lower than that of the previous month. It was higher than the 60.0% above-normal range for 11 consecutive months. In terms of industries, the service industry business activity expectation index was 60.1%, a slight decrease from the previous month 0.3. Percentage point. The construction industry business activity expectancy index is 66.7%, up 1.0 percentage point from the previous month.
Table 3 China's non-manufacturing major index (seasonally adjusted)
| Unit: % | ||||||
| Business activities | new order | Input products price | selling price | Employees | Business Activity expected | |
| March 2017 | 55.1 | 51.9 | 52.3 | 49.7 | 49.1 | 61.3 |
| April 2017 | 54.0 | 50.5 | 51.7 | 50.2 | 49.5 | 59.7 |
| May 2017 | 54.5 | 50.9 | 51.1 | 48.8 | 49.0 | 60.2 |
| June 2017 | 54.9 | 51.4 | 51.2 | 49.3 | 49.6 | 61.1 |
| July 2017 | 54.5 | 51.1 | 53.1 | 50.9 | 49.5 | 61.1 |
| August 2017 | 53.4 | 50.9 | 54.4 | 51.5 | 49.5 | 61.0 |
| September 2017 | 55.4 | 52.3 | 56.1 | 51.7 | 49.7 | 61.7 |
| October 2017 | 54.3 | 51.1 | 54.3 | 51.6 | 49.4 | 60.6 |
| November 2017 | 54.8 | 51.8 | 56.2 | 52.8 | 49.2 | 61.6 |
| December 2017 | 55.0 | 52.0 | 54.8 | 52.6 | 49.3 | 60.9 |
| January 2018 | 55.3 | 51.9 | 53.9 | 52.6 | 49.4 | 61.7 |
| February 2018 | 54.4 | 50.5 | 53.2 | 49.9 | 49.6 | 61.2 |
| March 2018 | 54.6 | 50.1 | 49.9 | 49.3 | 49.2 | 61.1 |
Table 4 Other non-manufacturing categories in China (adjusted seasonally)
| Unit: % | ||||
| New export orders | In-hand order | stock | Supplier delivery time | |
| March 2017 | 48.8 | 44.7 | 45.8 | 51.4 |
| April 2017 | 47.1 | 44.0 | 46.2 | 52.0 |
| May 2017 | 48.5 | 43.7 | 46.1 | 51.8 |
| June 2017 | 49.8 | 44.6 | 45.9 | 51.8 |
| July 2017 | 52.1 | 43.9 | 45.9 | 51.7 |
| August 2017 | 49.0 | 44.0 | 45.5 | 51.1 |
| September 2017 | 49.7 | 44.2 | 47.0 | 51.6 |
| October 2017 | 50.7 | 43.9 | 46.4 | 51.1 |
| November 2017 | 50.9 | 44.1 | 46.5 | 51.6 |
| December 2017 | 51.5 | 43.8 | 46.3 | 51.3 |
| January 2018 | 50.1 | 44.4 | 46.5 | 51.3 |
| February 2018 | 45.9 | 43.8 | 47.6 | 50.7 |
| March 2018 | 50.4 | 44.3 | 46.2 | 51.6 |
III. Operation of China's comprehensive PMI output index
In March 2018, China's comprehensive PMI output index was 54.0%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month. It continued to be above the critical point, indicating that China's production and business activities have generally accelerated development.
Notes
1. Explanation of major indicators
The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is an index compiled through the monthly summary of the company's purchasing managers' monthly survey results. It covers all aspects of corporate procurement, production, and circulation, including manufacturing and non-manufacturing, and is international. One of the common leading indicators for monitoring macroeconomic trends has a strong forecast and early warning effect. The integrated PMI output index reflects the change in output of the entire industry (manufacturing and non-manufacturing) in the current PMI indicator system. Comprehensive index. PMI usually takes 50% as the demarcation point of economic strength. When PMI is higher than 50%, it reflects the overall economic expansion; if it is lower than 50%, it reflects the overall economic contraction.
2. Scope of the investigation
Involving 31 industries in the “National Economic Sector Classification” (GB/T4754-2011), 3,000 survey samples; 31 non-manufacturing industry categories and 4,000 survey samples.
3. Survey method
Purchasing manager surveys use the Probability Proportional to Size (PSS) sampling method, which is based on the manufacturing or non-manufacturing industries. The sample size of the industry is allocated based on the ratio of the added value to the added value of all manufacturing or non-manufacturing industries. Samples are extracted using the probability of being proportional to the company's main business income.
This survey was carried out by the investigation team directly under the National Bureau of Statistics. It used the national statistics online direct reporting system to conduct a monthly questionnaire survey of corporate procurement managers.
4. Calculation method
(1) Calculation method of classification index. Manufacturing purchasing managers survey index system includes production, new orders, new export orders, on-hand orders, finished product inventory, purchase volume, imports, purchase price of major raw materials, factory price, raw material inventory , Practitioners, Supplier Delivery Time, Expectations of Production and Business Activities, etc. 13 Category Indexes. Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Survey Indicator System Including Business Activities, New Orders, New Export Orders, On Hand Orders, Inventory, Input Prices, Sales Prices , employees, supplier delivery time, business activity expectations, etc. 10 sub-indices. The sub-index uses a diffusion index calculation method, that is, the percentage of enterprises that are responding positively, plus half of the percentage that responds unchanged. Because non-manufacturing does not Composite index, the international generally used business activity index to reflect the overall development of non-manufacturing economy.
(2) The method of calculating the manufacturing PMI index. The manufacturing PMI is calculated by weighting five diffusion indices (sub-indexes). The five sub-indexes and their weights are determined based on the degree of their prior economic impact. Including: New order index, weight 30%; production index, weight 25%; employee index, weight 20%; supplier delivery time index, weight 15%; raw material inventory index, weight 10%. Among them, the supplier delivery time index is an inverse index, and the inverse operation is performed when synthesizing the manufacturing PMI index.
(3) Calculation method of comprehensive PMI output index. The comprehensive PMI output index is a weighted sum of the manufacturing production index and the non-manufacturing business activity index. The weights are the ratio of manufacturing and non-manufacturing to GDP. The index was released in January 2018.
5. Seasonal adjustment
The survey of purchasing managers is a monthly survey. Due to the influence of seasonal factors, the data is subject to large fluctuations. The indexes currently released are all seasonally adjusted data.