The trade conflict between China and the US is on the face of a trade deficit. In fact, this is an inevitable result between the two major powers of China and the United States, as their economic strength is approaching and the U.S. is threatened by global economic hegemony. Measures. From the perspective of PVC on the analysis of the new Sino-U.S. trade structure, Zhongyu Information believes that the current stage is only an increase of macro pressure, which leads to a weakening of the PVC market and a weaker futures price.
In fact, PVC has not appeared in the field of sanctions between the two sides. In particular, China has not mentioned the import sanctions for PVC, and the export of downstream plastic products, the United States has not planned to impose on China's levy. Zhongyu Information believes that Looking at PVC and its downstream industries, the trade between China and the United States is difficult to reach. At least from the perspective of the United States, this is not a simple trade war. Returning to the sanctions list of both sides, China basically sanctions US agricultural products because this It is the main product that the United States exports to China, but the key soybean and corn are still not on the list. However, the United States has not sanctioned the products that China mainly exports to the United States, such as clothing, shoes and hats, ordinary electromechanical products and some commonly used small commodities.
According to the analysis, we have seen this trade sanctions against the core fields of “Made in China 2025” for industrial robots, new generation information technology, new energy vehicles, aviation products, and high-speed rail equipment. Therefore, it is clear that the pattern of the two countries is not On one level, China is targeting the major export products of the United States, while the United States is targeting industries that can pose a huge threat to U.S. manufacturing. One is staring at the present and the other is staring at the future.
The United States is inseparable from manufacturing in China. Plastics exporters are currently panicking. If the United States restricts China’s trade in products, it will inevitably make decisions based on the least harm to its own interests. Therefore, labor-intensive and crude ore-based industries are It is a supplement. According to the analysis of the current conditions in the United States, the plastics industry is not the main target of the trade war. In the case of primary products, the trade complementarity is not high, but because the import and export of primary products belongs to the international industry chain for many years. Normal division of labor, the United States domestic substitution of this part of the production capacity is not strong, so the primary product manufacturing industry is also unlikely to become the United States to China's restricted industries.
In view of the U.S. restrictions on China, there are three areas that do have an impact on China's plastics industry.
1. The constraints of information technology
The U.S. sanctions on China’s information technology have hindered the exchange and cooperation in the field of PVC high-tech products in China. The symbolic influence is very serious, and it will give many innovative companies in our country unfavorable signals. It will directly affect Chinese companies and U.S. companies. The development of partnerships has also directly affected the investment of the two countries.
From the current information technology exchanges and cooperation between China and the United States, there are many areas of this long-term partner strategy. Floor and floor layers, PVC wallpaper, decorative wall panels, ceiling decorative panels, embossed artistic corner, digital furniture panels, Digital coating of marble, etc. In the future, using plastic to substitute steel, plastic and wood substitutes are inevitable. Whether it is the international market or the domestic market, the development space is inconceivable. At present, China needs a lot of information and technology to continuously improve the industry. Processing, energy saving, resources, quality, management, etc. Actually, the United States is very aware of the importance of information technology. Compared with traditional materials such as metal, wood, and stone, today's low-carbon economy is even more outstanding in plastics.
From the perspective of investment, there are many driving forces for China's plastic product companies to go abroad. On the one hand, they follow the laws of the market. On the other hand, domestic production capacity is surplus, and demand is relatively insufficient. China has learned and mastered many practical technologies in the process of industrialization. There are also foreign needs. Enterprises are eager to find new markets abroad and improve their management and technology.
2. New material area
The demand for PVC in China remains good, because the growth of downstream demand is promising. However, the downstream plastic products are still at a stage where the contradiction between supply and demand is particularly prominent. Zhongyu Information considers this to be a structural problem, that is, the traditional capacity surplus, limited market demand, and high-tech Plastics are slow to develop, and even supply falls short of demand. As new materials, new equipment and new processes continue to emerge, the competition for high-tech plastics companies will also intensify, especially in the international market.
3. Persecution shifts to the future development of Eurasia 'China's wisdom-making'
Through the 'One Belt and One Road' approach to the international market, we will better display new materials in the 'Belt and Road' countries and regions, and help companies grow stronger and stronger. It is recommended that the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Environmental Protection and other ministries actively support the participation of environmental protection leading enterprises in the country' The “One Belt One Road” major project construction will continue to make greater contributions to the country’s economic development. Looking at both the global and the current status of China, it is a normal and inevitable trend to reconfigure the value chain and supply chain of enterprises.