1. Warmer days in spring, prices recover and remain steady
In the first quarter of 2018, the price of lithium was operating at a high level. Before the Lunar New Year holiday, due to the destocking of downstream battery companies, the demand was weak and lithium prices showed a downward trend. Most post-holiday downstream manufacturers did not stock enough inventory due to the In the holiday market, there are few stocks, and a few non-stopping lithium salt manufacturers all indicated that the market began to show a trend of oversupplied supply. With the warmer spring temperatures, lithium prices have also been quietly recovering. In March, policies favored frequent and lithium prices remained basically stable. At the end of the month, battery-grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 15.3-16 million yuan per ton, with an average market price of 158,000 yuan per ton, and an average monthly price of 158,600 yuan per ton, a year-on-year increase of 22.5%, and a month-on-month increase of 0.25%.
2. Strong lithium demand support
According to the data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in February 2018 were 39,230 and 34,420, respectively, an increase of 119.1% and 95.2% respectively.
In 2018, the growth momentum of new energy vehicles will be driven by the transition from purchase restriction and subsidy policies to market pull. After entry into the new subsidy policy in February, entry-level A00 electric vehicles are in danger of drastically reducing subsidies, so car companies still have to grab in February. The power of A00-class models was installed. The proportion of A00 pure electric vehicles in February reached 86%, which is also reflected in the expected subsidy adjustment for the micro-mini cruising range models and the relatively high subsidies in the transitional period.
The “Adjustment and Improvement of Financial Subsidy Policy for Popularization and Application of New Energy Vehicles” published on February 13 will maximize the promotion of quality and efficiency of the new energy automotive industry, enhance core competitiveness, and achieve high-quality development. Among them, the policy strongly supports fuel. The battery car encourages the development of pure electric power and high-end passenger cars, and further raises the energy density threshold of pure electric passenger cars. With the introduction of the new subsidy policy, high-performance models will gradually be introduced to the market, and the new energy models with short battery life will be used. It will gradually be phased out. In fact, both the promotion of new energy vehicle products and the improvement of the core competitiveness of enterprises, the new policies all play a very good role in promoting; in 2018, the subsidy policy of subsidy for new energy vehicles will be implemented. The effective continuity of product supply and demand for new energy vehicles.
This year, China will continue to take measures to support new energy vehicle consumption from the perspective of policies, including encouraging local governments to provide support for the purchase of new energy vehicles and convenient access. The advantages of new energy vehicles are cumulatively formed in many aspects, with large market demand, and industries. Policy support, industry clustering and other characteristics. Currently is China's auto industry transformation and upgrading, to achieve leapfrog development, an important opportunity to seize the opportunities, the global new energy vehicles are waiting for a major breakthrough in battery technology, China's new energy automotive industry benefits from huge Market demand, policy promotion, unique development advantages, is expected to become a model for the automotive industry's 'change lanes overtaking'. It is expected that the annual production and sales of new energy vehicles will have a substantial increase, but also provide strong support for the lithium salt market demand.
3. Supply side expansion, cooperation, acquisitions and other frequent news
Before and after the Spring Festival, except for some of the Salt Lake companies that suspended production due to seasonal factors, most of the domestic lithium extraction companies basically maintained production. However, after the Spring Festival, the market still showed a situation of oversupplied supply, and there were fewer stocks and orders were sufficient. In the past month, domestic and foreign companies expanded production and cooperation. , new arrivals and other news frequently.
Salt Lake BYD 30,000 tons and Lanke Lithium 20,000 tons lithium carbonate project started
Qinghai Salt Lake BYD Development Co., Ltd. 30,000-ton battery-grade lithium carbonate project, Qinghai Salt Lake Fozhao Lanke Lithium Co., Ltd. 20,000-ton battery-grade lithium carbonate project started. The two lithium carbonate projects of BYD and Lanke Lithium were started. With a total production capacity of 50,000 tons and an investment of nearly 8 billion yuan, it is estimated that the construction period will be approximately one and a half years. In addition, Lanke Lithium's original capacity of 10,000 tons of lithium carbonate will be used. By then, the salt production capacity of the salt lake will reach an annual output of 60,000 tons.
Fengfeng Lithium Adds 20,000 Tons of Lithium Hydroxide Project Completed After Spring Festival
Yanfeng Lithium added 20,000 tons of lithium hydroxide project annually after the Spring Festival. The annual output of 17,500 tons of battery grade lithium carbonate will be completed and put into operation in the second half of this year. In terms of production capacity, ore production capacity of battery-grade lithium carbonate is 15,000 yuan. Ton / year, Lithium hydroxide production capacity of 10,000 tons / year, the new 20,000 tons of lithium hydroxide production line is expected to put into operation after the Spring Festival in 2018, the 175,000 tons of battery-grade lithium carbonate production line is expected to put into production in the third quarter of 2018.
Siu Hsin plans to purchase 500 million yuan of Shanghai Zhong Li’s remaining 80% equity
Siuxin shares intends to purchase the remaining 80% equity of Shanghai Zhongli Li by issuing shares and/or paying cash. The transaction amount is planned to be 500 million yuan. After the completion of the equity acquisition, the company will hold 100% of Shanghai Lithium. Equities. Siuxin shares undergoes a series of investment and resource integration. At present, the company's new energy business has added the development and application of salt lake lithium resources, lithium deep processing products and other fields.
Baowei Holding and Long-Term Lithium Division Sign Cooperation Agreement
BCL, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Bowway Holdings, has signed a strategic agreement with China Minmetals' subsidiary affiliate Lithium Division to jointly develop in the upstream and downstream sectors of the new energy material industry chain. The company's joint venture company, Jiangxi Baojiang Lithium Co., Ltd., will be the long-term Lithium Division. Provides long-term stable supply of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide products to cater for expansion plans for its cathode materials.
Zhiyuan Lithium opens cooperation with Lockwood
Zhiyuan Lithium and Lockwood signed a three-year cooperation framework agreement on February 27, 2018, mainly for the supply of spodumene and the purchase and sale of lithium salt products during the three years from 2018 to 2020: Zhiyuan Lithium promised 2018 Providing no less than 6,875 tons of lithium salt products to Lockwood. From 2019 to 2020, Zhiyuan Lithium supplies at least 10,000 tons of lithium salt products to Lockwood each year. Lockwood promises to provide timely corresponding spodumene to Zhiyuan Liye Mianzhu Factory. .
Xinhai should plan to build 20,500 tons of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide plant
Xinhai Yi signed a "Lithium industry cooperation framework agreement" with Shenzhen Guo'ao Mining Investment Partnership. The company plans to invest another 500 million yuan in further cooperation with the National Australia Fund. According to the fund use plan, 300 million yuan will be used in Canada. The construction of a spodumene mining and processing plant is expected to reach a scale of 1 million tons of rough stone per year after the completion of the mining plant; 200 million yuan will be used to build a domestic 20,500 tons of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide processing plant, including 17,000 tons of lithium carbonate, hydrogen Lithium oxide 0.35 million tons. The factory plans to start work in the second quarter of 2018 and finish before the end of 2019.
Blue Ocean Huateng joint venture 80 million equity-weight lithium-ion battery project
Lanhai Huateng, the main motor controller product, plans to jointly increase capital of 80 million to Jiangxi Yunwei New Materials Co., Ltd. with Shanghai Haozhen Asset Management Center to subscribe for its corresponding shares. Yunwei Xincai is currently producing 10,000 tons of batteries annually. Lithium hydroxide construction, a total investment of 301 million yuan for the first phase of the project.
International three giant lithium SQM/FMC/Albemarle layout speed
According to recent news, SQM will spend US$170 million to expand its lithium production capacity from 48,000 tons to 70,000 tons this year, and then expand production to 100,000 tons in 2019. Although there is news, SQM tentatively plans to expand production to 2019, and then depending on the situation. However, SQM is undoubtedly determined to maintain the global leading market share of the expansion of the motive.
FMC plans to withdraw 15% of its lithium business on the New York Stock Exchange this autumn, raising 500 million U.S. dollars, and eventually split the lithium business into an independent company. Prior to this, FMC CEO Pierre Blumdo At the performance report, the company disclosed that it will invest 250-300 million U.S. dollars in the expansion of lithium mines in Catamarca Province, at least 20,000 tons of lithium carbonate production capacity.
Lockwood, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Albemarle, chose to sign a three-year cooperation framework agreement with Zhiyuan Lithium. According to the agreement, Zhiyuan Lithium will provide Lockwood with no less than 6,875 tons of lithium salt products (including lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide in 2018). ), Provide at least 10,000 tons / year of lithium salt products from 2019 to 2020. Prior to this, Albemarle has purchased new lithium materials from Lithium as a lithium salt production base.
Whether it is self-produced or foundry, SQM and Albemarle have the intention of expanding their production capacity to maintain or even expand their market share. The release of lithium business from FMC is also aimed at attracting more investment and better development of lithium business. Behind the rapid development of the layout of the major international lithium giants are based on the global wave of motorization, the lithium market is expected to be strong.
Although there are many new participants in the lithium industry, it must be acknowledged that the global supply of lithium resources will continue to supply mainstream market resources such as the spodumene mine represented by Australia’s Green Bush and the resources represented by the Acatama Salt Lake in South America. Continue to dominate the global market for a long period of time. The actual release time of some new production capacity, quantity and product quality are still very uncertain.
4. Import and export
In February 2018, the import of lithium salt totaled 3471.71 tons (lithium equivalent to lithium carbonate equivalent), a decrease of 1.66% compared to the previous month. In January-February, the import of lithium salt totaled 7002.06 tons, an increase of 21.17% over the same period of last year. The main imports were lithium carbonate from Chile and Japan. 2018 In February, the export of lithium salt totaled 1620.9 tons (lithium equivalent to lithium carbonate equivalent), a decrease of 27% from the previous month; January-February export of lithium salts totaled 3,841.24 tons, an increase of 85.2% year-on-year, of which most of lithium salt exports were lithium hydroxide. , Exported to Japan, South Korea and other countries.
In February 2018, China imported 2,517.09 tons of lithium carbonate, a year-on-year decrease of 4.36%, a decrease of 19.16%, and an average offshore import price of 13,283.27 USD/ton, a 3% decrease from the previous month and an increase of 34% year-on-year. In February, the traditional Chinese New Year, some downstream manufacturers stopped Purchase, which led to a drop in lithium carbonate imports.
In January-February, lithium carbonate imports totaled 5,632.62 tons, a year-on-year increase of 17.45%, and import volume remained basically unchanged. Under the circumstance that the subsidy policy continued, the production and sales volume of the downstream new energy automobile market increased significantly, resulting in an increase in lithium salt imports. In terms of subdividing the importing countries, 4264 tons were imported from Chile, accounting for more than 75% of the total imports.
In February 2018, the export volume of lithium hydroxide in China was 1,439.215 tons, an increase of 147.38% year-on-year, a decrease of 34.33% compared with the previous month and an average offshore price of 14,624.98 USD/ton, an increase of 11.14% year-on-year, and a 14.5% increase on a month-on-month basis. Total exports amounted to 3,630.79 tons, a year-on-year increase of 99.26%. In January, the export volume rebounded sharply, mainly due to the recovery of export volume in Japan and South Korea. The decrease in February was mainly due to the suspension of production during the Spring Festival.
At the beginning of 2018, excluding the impact of the traditional Spring Festival, the import and export volume of lithium remained on the rise as a whole. With the stimulation of the expansion of domestic and foreign new energy vehicles, the demand for battery-grade lithium salt in Japan and South Korea increased, and the export volume of lithium hydroxide increased. The increase; and the domestic material and battery manufacturer capacity expansion, driven by the continuous increase in lithium carbonate imports. It is expected that the total import of lithium salt exceeded 10,000 tons in the first quarter; the total amount of exports reached 6,000 tons, and the import and export volume increased year-on-year.
5. Future industry trends
At the beginning of 2018, due to lack of stockpiles of downstream material companies, the current down-payment of reserves was expected to expire. Although some lithium salt companies did not stop production during the Spring Festival, the market still showed a situation of oversupply, and lithium prices have risen. At present, orders for lithium salt production companies are stable. Considering that the effective new production in 2018 is still limited, supply and demand will remain tightly balanced; Second, the inventory of batteries and cathode materials will be cleared, and the downstream demand will be extremely high. The production and sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to continue exceeding expectations, and the marginal demand trend has become clearer. .
Under the presumption of high cost of new entrants, uncertainty of new capacity release and real growth of downstream demand, the price of lithium salt should be relatively stable before 2020, and the average price fluctuations in 2017; the majority of production capacity released in 2021-2023. In the post-market supply and demand balance may occur, prices may be adjusted, some of the cost is high, and those with poor technical skills will be eliminated, but there is a low probability that prices will fall.
In 2018, new lithium salt plant capacity release related time points were added, and the degree of progress in matching with the expansion of production of cathode material production lines will affect the supply and demand of domestic and international lithium salts. In the first half of the year, attention was paid to the impact of overseas rainy seasons on the supply of brine, and the start of the lithium salt plant. In the second half of the year, we will focus on the progress of the new capacity release of the lithium salt plant and the operating rate and stocking status of the battery plant.
