According to the traditional rules, the spring season entered the peak season of the agricultural machinery industry, but the overall market performance in January and March this year was far from satisfactory. In the conventional agricultural machinery category, tractors and wheat machines can be regarded as two major focuses of attention in the industry, including tractors. As a representative of power machinery products is more concerned about.
After going through the market decline for two consecutive years in 2016 and 2017, the industry placed endless expectations and hopes on the market in 2018, systematically analyzed the trend of the tractor market in recent years, combined with the current operating environment, comprehensively, the overall development trend It is optimistic, but 2018 is still mixed, not as optimistic as in imagery. The four views are open to discussion.
1. Supply and demand adjustment, high operation, stable development in stages.
Looking at the changes in the market sales volume of medium-sized and medium-sized tonnage since 2008, it has been increasing year by year for six consecutive years from 2008 to 2013. The growth rate has exceeded 30% in 2009, and the annual sales volume has exceeded 300,000 units. In 2014, the sales volume of medium and large towed markets has declined significantly. The market entered the adjustment transition period. The sales volume of medium and large companies dragged on 473,600 units, which represented a year-on-year decline of more than 8%. In 2015, the market rebounded and sales exceeded 580,000 units. In the following two consecutive years 2016 and 2017, the overall market sales volume continued to decline. Sales remained at around 500,000 units.
Traditionally, overcapacity in traditional categories has become a huge obstacle to industry upgrading. Take Dazhong Tow as an example. According to conservative statistics, the annual production capacity of China’s large and medium-sized companies has exceeded 800,000 units, and the actual demand is also about 400,000 units. This surplus is structural and is the aftereffect of repeated output. With the constant adjustment and upgrading of industrial structure, the supply and demand of various agricultural machinery categories have changed a lot. Rigid demand and rational consumption are gradually becoming the development trend of the agricultural machinery market. As a representative of the traditional category, the medium and large drag and drop category analysis from the perspective of long-term development, whether it is deep, deep, large-scale operations, organic farming or 'machine-for-man' and other needs, will certainly be destined for a wide range of prospects. However, judging from the current stage of development, in 2018, the overall market is still operating at a high level. The stable operation period, adjustment of supply and demand, replacement of old and new products, and chasing of backward markets will become market operation labels. It is expected that annual sales will not show ups and downs, which is equal to 2017 or Slight reduction, the overall sales of 48-50 million units.
Second, the segment of the horsepower was significantly delayed, and market competition became more subdivided.
From the analysis of the sales structure of medium and medium-term trailers in 2017, 25 to 100 horsepower towed in the market is still the mainstream of market sales, the overall proportion of more than 80%; and in 100 horsepower or more drag products, 140 horsepower or more products increased significantly, 150-180 horsepower segment The product has experienced a two-fold increase, and the horsepower segment has seen a prolonged upward trend. The overall situation can be summarized as follows. Domestically large and medium-sized companies are dragging the market, medium-sized products are the mainstream, and large-scale products are the trend.
From the analysis of the sales of large and medium-sized companies in 2017, the traditional main sales market has experienced a steady decline in saturation, such as the three major northeastern provinces of the traditional agricultural machinery market, and Shandong, Hebei, Jiangsu, Xinjiang, etc., with double-digit declines. Some individual regions even fell by more than 30%, which made people fully feel the infinite pressure and misery caused by the downturn in the general market. At the same time, individual regions such as Inner Mongolia have seen a rare upward trend, but the volume growth has been limited. .
In addition, from the perspective of state subsidies adjustments to Dazhong-Zhong policy, the “National List of Public Capital Finance Subsidies for National Agricultural Machinery from 2018 to 2020” published by the Agricultural Mechanization Extension Center of the Ministry of Agriculture (publications) is displayed. The country's subsidy quotas for Dazhongzhong in different horsepower segments have risen and fall, and its characteristics are summarized in three. First, for the two-drive model, the maximum subsidy limit for 70- to 100-horsepower is increased, and when it exceeds 100 horsepower, the same standard is implemented to prevent The two-wheel-drive type of horsepower was blindly delayed; second, the subsidy subsidy increased the subsidy quota of 70 to 110 hp and reduced the subsidy ceiling below 70 hp and 110 hp or more to prevent the power from being falsified; Thirdly, for models of more than 200 hp, the maximum limit of 200 to 210 hp was increased by nearly 20,000 yuan, and the maximum subsidy limit was 129,600 yuan, while the subsidy limit for tractors of 210 hp and above was reduced by more than 30,000 yuan and 200 hp or more. As for the file subsidy limit, they are all 129,600 yuan, to stabilize the high-end market monopoly and price hikes.
For business operations, it is clear that the mainstream and development trend can determine the direction for future development. In the face of increasingly fragmented market changes in competition, it is necessary to establish its own areas of excellence for intensive cultivation, improve product quality, and optimize family services. To win a place. In terms of development strategy, we must follow the direction of national policy in order to obtain more long-term development.
Third, brand chaos, price competition will continue.
Tractor as a representative of power machinery products is more concerned about.
From 2004 onwards, until 2014, agricultural machinery subsidies led to the recognition of the “golden decade” recognized by the industry. Since 2015, the adjustment of the agricultural industry has continued to deepen. During this period, more than 2,600 large and small agricultural machinery enterprises have been derived. Take power machinery manufacturing as an example. According to incomplete statistics, currently there are more than 180 large and medium-sized drag manufacturing companies that have been named. In the continuous declining market competition, companies and brands are disappearing one after another, but there are also new enterprises and Brand entry.
Along with the continuous improvement of the tractor industry system in China, parts are manufactured by suppliers. The supply chain cooperation model of the complete assembly of mainframe plants has become the mainstream of development. This model has not only achieved the scale expansion and rapid growth of the first-line brands, but also created The duplication, imitation, and plagiarism of product homogenization. At present, the vast majority of second- and third-tier brands in China and around the country have emerged around first-line brand manufacturing centers. They are rapidly expanding through socially mature resources formed through the development of first-line brands, and they impact the market at low prices. Actually, scale companies are caught off guard. Further, at present, China’s total farm machinery power capacity has reached 972 million kilowatts, and tractors have more than 24 million units, including over 6.5 million large and medium-sized tractors. The huge amount of ownership has determined China’s agricultural power market. It has tended to saturate. Most of the increase in the market comes from the update of old machines. The situation facing them can be described as squeaky, and the competition among brands has entered the stage of “close combat”.
According to statistics, in 2017, the operating profit margin of the agricultural machinery industry decreased by 0.37% year-on-year, and the loss-making enterprises reached 8.9%. Some companies have difficulties in operating, and the market demand is limited. Overcapacity needs to be gradually digested, user income is reduced, and buying enthusiasm is frustrated. It is estimated that by 2018 It is inevitable that the price competition in the market will be unavoidable. It is becoming the most direct test for many agricultural machinery manufacturers and distribution companies to identify the risk minimization business model under the vicious competition.
Fourth, product upgrades are imminent, reliability, differentiation, and intelligence are still the key.
For a long time, the shortage of high-end products, lack of reliability, insufficient refinement of manufacturing, and lack of intelligent industrial design have widened the gap between domestic and medium-sized trailer products and global first-line brands. Domestic agricultural machinery manufacturing is in technological research and development, industrial design, Process upgrading, lean manufacturing and other aspects still need to catch up.
The quality of the product, the user said! For the specific statistics of tractor failures, the relevant agencies in 2017 to 500 different regions, different brands, different horsepower use domestic tractor users within 2 years of failure summary analysis, ranked first The problem of “three leakages” (leakage, air leakage, and oil leakage) remains, and the proportion exceeds 18%; the engine failure, white smoke, and powerlessness are the second most important factors, indicating that the reliability of the three products still exists. Insufficient, with a proportion of 17.2%; ranked third, fourth is poor sealing, lack of driving comfort and heavy handling, with a proportion of around 15%, which shows the user's pursuit of driving comfort and intelligence; In the fifth place, the sixth place is the clutch failure and hydraulic component failure, respectively, the proportion of 9.5%, 7.8%; ranked seventh is the instrument, lighting failure, the proportion of 5.8%. This investigation is unavoidable, but It is enough to explain some problems. The domestic manufacturing industry for medium and medium-sized tractors must be upgraded. It is necessary to carry out improvement and improvement of seeking truth from facts on the basis of user experience. The current users have shown new characteristics with age, reliability, and comfort. Sexuality, intelligence, beautiful appearance, etc. are all attracting attention.
In the face of severe global market competition, it is extremely urgent for China’s medium-to-large-scale product upgrades. Without upgrading, it will not be able to achieve transformation and structural adjustment. Without upgrading, it will make the huge volume scale become a heavy burden for any farm machinery company. It is of far-reaching significance that the success of the upgrading and transformation in 2018 is related to success or failure.
No matter how the environment changes, there will be competition in the market. For large and medium-sized enterprises, 2018 is still a matter of interest, survival, and subsequent development. Confidence is the most important. We believe that companies that stand the test of market competition will surely deduct Different kind of wonderful time.