The world even had such a thing: In 2017, the two major Chinese home appliance groups - Midea Group and Haier Group - had their operating incomes unchanged at the wonderful figure of '241.9 billion yuan'.
On March 30, Midea Group (000333) released the 2017 financial report on schedule.
According to the report, in 2017, Midea Group achieved a total operating revenue of RMB 219.919 billion, a year-on-year increase of 51.35%; a net profit of RMB 18.611 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.33%; and a net profit of RMB 17.284 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.70%; earnings per share of 2.66. yuan.
Among them, Midea's HVAC (including home and business space) achieved an operating income of 95.252 billion yuan, and consumer electronics (mainly ice-washed products, living appliances, and kitchen appliances are the four major segments), and achieved operating revenue of 98.748 billion yuan. Robots and automation systems (including KUKA robots, Andre Logistics) achieved operating revenue of 27.04 billion yuan.
The company decided to send a cash dividend of RMB 12 (including tax) to every 10 shareholders for every 10 shares.
'51.35% increase in revenue' + '7.7% of net margin' may be the most impressive impression of this report. Compared with 2016 net profit of 10%, the net interest rate of Midea Group decreased in 2017. 2.3 percentage points.
But overall, this is still an outstanding transcript:
1. The increase in the main business revenue exceeded the expectations of many people;
2. The market value rose by more than 100% for the whole year, and once stood on the market value of a Shenzhen city.
3, Good operating performance + forward-looking strategic layout is a profound impression of Midea Group to investors, which is also an impression of considerable imagination.
It is generally believed that the effect of the strategic transformation of the 'Global Business + Technology Group' established by Midea Group at the beginning of 2017 will begin to show.
It is worth mentioning that in 2017, Haier Group, another home appliance giant in China, had an operating income of 241.9 billion yuan. Hemei Group is almost exactly the same!
1, What has supported the growth of the Group's revenue of up to 51%?
As much as 51.35% of the revenue growth exceeded the expectations of many people. So, what supported the high revenue growth of Midea Group in 2017?
As a result, the revenue growth of Midea Group was due to the growth of the existing business + new consolidated statement business.
The existing business part: This part mainly refers to the United States of HVAC, consumer electronics and smart supply chain (Andre logistics).
In 2017, Midea's HVAC business revenue increased by 40.5% compared to 2016, contributing 27.8 billion revenue increments. Sales of ice, washing, small household appliances, logistics and transportation services increased by 26.6%, and contributed 22.1 billion. The increase in revenue.
In 2017, the original business segment of Midea Group realized operating revenue of 2015 billion, and the incremental revenue contribution for Midea Group was 50 billion yuan, an increase of 33% compared to 2016.
Then there is the new consolidated statement part: This part of the business mainly refers to the KUKA robot business and Toshiba white power business. 2017, KUKA Group, Toshiba Home Appliances and other completed M&A projects have been incorporated into the US Group Consolidated Statement.
Kuka and Toshiba's home appliance business contributed two to more than 32 billion yuan in revenue to Midea Group. Among them, KUKA’s revenue for 2017 was 26.723 billion yuan.
2. What lowered the net interest rate of the United Group by 2.3%?
In 2016, Midea Group achieved revenue of 159.8 billion yuan, net profit of 15.9 billion yuan, and net profit margin of 10%. In 2017, Midea's net profit rate fell to 7.7%. So, what brought down the group's net profit margin?
It is generally believed that the influencing factors are as follows:
First of all, in 2017, Midea Group amortized the expenses for acquisition of KUKA and Toshiba, which was 2.414 billion yuan.
Secondly, at the end of 2017, Midea Group launched an equity incentive plan, which included a stock fee of 841 million yuan in 2017 based on the relevant accounting standards.
The above two total payment of 3.255 billion yuan.
There are also other factors, such as the increase in operational investment, including the rise in raw material prices in 2017, the impact of currency exchange rates, and the increase in R&D investment. Taking R&D investment as an example, in 2017, the Group invested 8.5 billion yuan in R&D. This is an increase of 40.59% from the RMB 6 billion in 2016. It is expected that this part of the cost will further increase in 2018, and may exceed RMB 10 billion for the first time.
In addition, the profit margin of KUKA robots is not as good as that of the United States; the Toshiba white-light business has not formed a profit in 2017.
The above factors have become the main force for pulling down the US net profit rate of the group.
However, please note: There is an increase in gross profit margin in the business segment of Midea Group in 2017.
In December 2017, Fang Hongbo said during an exchange with the agency that in 2017, the average retail price of refrigerators in the United States increased by 20-30%, air conditioners increased by 10%, and the washing machine sales price also increased significantly. In Fang Hongbo's words, Now we would rather not market share, but also increase the average price.'
It can be seen that the 7.7% net profit rate of Midea Group in 2017 is the result of the upward and downward forces.
However, I tend to think that the 7.7% net profit rate may become the bottom of the group's net interest rate. The future net profit rate will only be higher than this figure and will not be lower than this figure.
3. Guess what: May 2018's group revenue may be?
In the past three years, the revenue growth of Midea Group was:
2015: Achieved revenue of Rmb138.4 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.28%;
2016: Total operating revenue of 159.8 billion yuan, up 15% year-on-year;
2017: Achieved total operating revenue of RMB 241,919 million, an increase of 51.35% over the same period last year.
Then, what is the likely number of US group revenues in 2018? Without large-scale mergers and acquisitions, will revenues increase substantially?
At present, it seems that the decline of the revenue of the Midea Group in 2015 is basically impossible, but it is unlikely that the growth rate of the Group will be as large as in 2017.
In order to make conjectures about the US Group’s revenue in 2018, it is necessary to make predictions about the possible revenue growth.
Perhaps, Fang Hongbo's statement can provide us with some inspiration.
He said, 'We have focused our strategy on endogenous growth, home-space, ice, washing, and the kitchen's four major business units. The top priority is the Home Office Division. We believe that there will be greater growth in the future of home-space, followed by Refrigerator, washing machine. Air-conditioner domestic market will increase by 30% next year. Ice-washing is also the case. Kitchen-electricity also puts forward a great goal. At present, the number of sales is already the first.
Can we conclude that in 2018, the US Group’s revenue growth targets for home air conditioners, refrigerators, washing machines, kitchen appliances, and the four major industry sectors are all 30%—this possibility is very great.
The above four major segments accounted for more than 80% of the Group's total revenue. If these four blocks can achieve the expected growth, then the original industry sector of Midea Group will continue to grow rapidly in 2018 - in 2017, the Group's existing industry The increase in the sector is 33%.
We cannot equate goals with facts. I think that the likelihood of continuous growth of 30% in the US group in 2018 is not without possibility, but it is very difficult. Generally speaking, the continuous high growth rate of a company with a high market share is There are difficulties.
For example, in 2016, KUKA Group achieved a revenue of 3 billion euros (approximately 23 billion yuan), and in 2017 it achieved a revenue of 26.723 billion yuan, an increase of only 16%, which is not very high.
However, KUKA’s investment in China has further intensified and will support future high-speed growth. On March 28th, Guangdong Smart Manufacturing Innovation Demonstration Park, the Sino-German Intelligent Manufacturing International Cooperation Demonstration Zone Launching Ceremony, and the Library of Midea Card smart manufacturing industry base, just held a groundbreaking ceremony.
Then, where is the growth momentum of Midea Group in 2018?
In my opinion, the most important growth driver is the increase in the unit price resulting from the continuous improvement of the product development of Midea Group. This is due to the special willingness of Midea to spend money on R&D and innovation. Of course, the increase in product power will also promote the sales volume of products. growth of.
Fang Hongbo said that in 2018, the United States will launch some 'new things, something that shines.' What are these things that are refreshing? It is worth looking forward to.
In addition, in the past few years, the United States has invested more and more in brand building, and it is even preparing to launch a self-owned high-end brand (as Haier Group launched Casa Di), which will increase its brand strength, and will also contribute to revenue growth. Contribute. However, it is unrealistic to expect a high premium for the product in the short term.
In general, the growth in product revenue and brand power is the highest in terms of revenue growth, because such growth will also contribute to the improvement of corporate profitability.
With reference to the Group's growth ratio in the past three years, combined with the 2018 revenue targets of the US division's business units, I tend to think that it is more appropriate to use 20% as the revenue growth of Midea Group in 2018.
If this assumption is true, then the value of the Group's revenue in 2018 may be 290 billion yuan, which is already close to the integer mark of 300 billion yuan.
It should be noted that this kind of speculation is not a rigorous argumentation process. In fact, we cannot solve the equation as 'because', 'so'. I predict the revenue of Midea Group in 2018, to a large extent. The above is a qualitative analysis, so it is not recommended as an investment reference.
In fact, I have learned something in this regard. In the first half of 2017, I predicted that the US Group’s revenue for the year would be between RMB2.3 billion and RMB240 billion, which is actually RMB241.9 billion; I predict that the US Group’s net profit in 2017 may rush to as high as RMB20 billion. Yuan is actually 18.611 billion yuan.
However, it is an indisputable fact that the capital market has placed high expectations on the US group. I believe that there are two basic logics to support this: First, in recent years, the US Group’s operating results have indeed been outstanding. This is what everyone sees. Followed by the layout of Midea Group based on the future, it is in line with the cognition of most people. In other words, a series of strategic layouts of Midea Group in recent years have clear logic, unlike the behaviors of some companies that look more like family moments. Impulse. For example, it is not difficult for everyone to understand that Midea needs to transform itself into a globally operating technology group and develop industrial Internet. The capital market is confident and normal.
However, I still think that the time when the U.S. group reborn and changed should appear in 2020.
On March 30th, Midea Group issued a 2017 financial report and also issued a letter to “Shareholders.” The letter stated that in 2018, Midea will start a new round of transformation and propose four 'further': The endogenous growth of the enterprise further promotes the digital transformation of the enterprise, further promotes the integration and business expansion in the robotics and automation field, and further promotes the integration and collaboration of global operations and mergers and acquisitions projects. This is actually the focus of the Group's work in 2018.