Recent trade wars between the United States and China, as well as other countries, have aroused global concern. Although the trade war has not yet begun a substantial war, the world is keeping a close eye on this 'war'.
China Synthetic Resin Supply and Marketing Association 2018 Industrial Situation Analysis Conference and the Second Session of the Second Council, HC Consume Buying Plastics Industry Internet Group Supply Chain Chief Strategy Officer and Chief Economist Yang Xianghong was invited to do "China's economic status quo, Future Opportunities and Challenges” theme report will provide in-depth analysis of China's economic impact on the chemical industry and the future development trend of the chemical industry.
In his report, Yang pointed out that in 2017 GDP growth: China still tops the globe, but per capita GDP is still low in China. China’s per capita income is much lower than that of developed countries. China’s economy is institutionalized, industry and industrial chain advantages, products 2. With technological innovation, and the multiple push of the Internet economy, China has maintained a stable development.
A big variable in Sino-U.S. relations is that China’s rise is much faster than Americans expect. China’s manufacturing industry has begun to shake several crowns in the US manufacturing industry, aviation, semiconductors, and the automotive industry. The US has raised interest rates, reduced taxes and recently launched The trade will have an impact on the Chinese economy. The formation of a united front between the European Union, Japan, and the United States will not be conducive to China’s commercial interests.
China's chemical industry development challenges in the next 10 years
At present, China's chemical industry is facing unprecedented challenges. Yang Zong stated: With the development of the national economy and the emphasis on environmental protection, the Chinese government is accelerating the reshuffle of the chemical industry. The main manifestations are: Strictly controlling VCO emissions, and failing to achieve environmental protection Enterprises do not allow production; regulations on transportation are promulgated; control over the storage and transportation of hazardous chemicals in chemicals is strengthened; new regulations are formulated, chemical companies are 'caught' to production, and chemical parks with more complete safety settings are established.
According to the HC Plastics Network, in accordance with the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Relocation of Dangerous Chemicals Production Enterprises in Urban Densely Populated Areas" policy, each province in China is actively formulating measures to promote the relocation and transformation process. Although the implementation method is slightly different, overall, In two steps: Small and medium-sized enterprises in the chemical industry and large-scale enterprises with major potential risks will start relocation and reconstruction before the end of 2018, and be completed by the end of 2020. Other large-scale chemical companies and extra-large enterprises will start relocation and reconstruction before the end of 2020, and will be completed before the end of 2025. At present, several domestic provinces and cities have promoted the relocation process of hazardous chemicals, such as Tianjin, Gansu, Anhui, Sichuan, Henan, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Heilongjiang, Guangdong, and Jilin, etc., have already formulated relevant plans to start the relocation of hazardous chemicals. Vigorously do a good job in production safety, green environmental protection, and sustainable development goals, and promote the rapid development of dangerous chemical companies under pollution-free and secure conditions.
At the same time, due to the increase in the cost of environmental governance, the increase in the cost burden of enterprises, the withdrawal of foreign capital, and the overcapacity of products, China's chemical industry is facing severe development challenges.
Mr. Yang used the data to display the production capacity of large chemical products. In 2017, China’s ethylene production capacity reached 24,555,000 tons/year, second only to the United States, and ranked second in the world. According to incomplete statistics, 2017–2021, the domestic plan is new. More than 40 ethylene projects were involved, involving at least 24 million tons of new production capacity per year. In 2017, China's propylene production capacity will reach 35.02 million tons. The CAGR of 2017-2021 will be approximately 9.52%, and will reach 50.4 million tons in 2021. .
In response to the development of the plastics industry, Yang pointed out sharply that in the next five years, the production capacity of China's general and engineering plastics models will be seriously and severely excessive. As China's capacity expansion is too rapid, domestic demand growth cannot be synchronized with capacity expansion. It is difficult to predict whether market demand is Growth; common models of general-purpose and engineering plastics were forced to go abroad to seek out overseas markets.
Specific analysis of three major plastics: PC, PMMA, nylon products
PC: Concentrated release of production capacity in the past two years
In 2016, China's polycarbonate capacity was 875,000 tons, output was 595,000 tons, and the operating rate was 68%. The apparent consumption was 1.69 million tons, +2.14% year-on-year, and the net import volume was 1.1 million tons. The foreign dependency was as high as 65%. , The future import substitution space is still large.
The development of polycarbonate industrial production process has undergone the solution phosgene method, interfacial condensation phosgene method, melt transesterification method and non-phosgene molten transesterification method. The solution phosgene method has been eliminated because of its poor economy and environmental problems. Non-phosgene melt transesterification method does not use toxic phosgene, raw material phenol can be recycled, does not require drying and washing, is an environmentally friendly production process, and is the development direction of polycarbonate production process in the future.
In terms of applications, both in the domestic and global markets, the electronic and electrical fields are the first choice for PC terminal applications. Domestically, electronic and electrical appliances accounted for 31% of the PC market, followed by 22% of the automotive industry, 21% of the plate and film applications, medical, The proportion of packaging and consumer goods is small, accounting for 16%, and the remaining 10% is in other areas. In the global market, electronics and electronics account for 34%, medical, packaging and consumer goods occupy second place, accounting for global share of 26%, followed by automobiles. Industry, accounting for 16%, sheet, film accounted for 13%, the remaining 11% of other areas.
Geographically, Northeast Asia has the highest capacity, accounting for 43% of global polycarbonate capacity, followed by West Europe, which accounts for 23%, North America, 17%, and Southeast Asia, 11%. Due to the high threshold of polycarbonate production technology, production capacity Mainly concentrated in multinational chemical companies, supply highly concentrated. According to relevant statistics, the world's top six companies accounted for more than 90% of production capacity.
At present, China’s polycarbonate production and consumption are growing rapidly, but the external dependence rate remains high. China plans to build more than 2 million tons of polycarbonate projects, and will concentrate more than 1 million tons of production capacity in the next two years. , It is expected that the proportion of China’s polycarbonate imports in consumption will decrease year by year. However, attention should be paid to the problems caused by excess capacity.
In the next five years, there will be an increase of 1.585 million tons of PC capacity, and the capacity will reach 2.48 million tons by 2022.
Global PC Development
Due to its special properties, PCs have more application directions. Yang pointed out that: At present, the global PC has several major development directions: high refractive index, light diffusion, heat conduction, heat shielding, biomaterials, high optical properties, and high water stability. , high hardness, halogen-free flame retardant, super toughness and other major trends, more and more widely used in LED lighting, automotive parts, automotive windows, etc. The high-performance PC market will maintain rapid growth.
PMMA: Domestic high-end products are highly dependent on foreign countries
PMMA products in the world are mainly divided into PMMA sheets and PMMA molding materials, and the production ratio of the two is about 1:1. Because PMMA production technology is mainly owned by companies in developed countries such as the United States and Japan, the United States, Western Europe and Japan have become The world's largest production area of PMMA.
In terms of market demand, current PMMA consumption is concentrated in Europe, the United States and Asia, where the market demand in Asia is growing most rapidly. With the rapid development of China’s economy, China has become the world’s largest consumer of PMMA. China’s consumption in 2017 The primary form of PMMA is close to 600,000 tons. Domestic PMMA supply depends on imports. From 2015 to 2017, China's average annual PMMA import volume is close to 210,000 tons.
From a technical point of view, PMMA production technology is monopolized by foreign-funded enterprises. At present, domestic production enterprises are mainly foreign-funded enterprises.
With the further development of production technology and production technology, the use of acrylic sheets has become more extensive. In addition to the field of sanitary ware, it is also widely used in decoration decoration, mechanical instrumentation, optical and other industries, such as for the manufacture of advertising light boxes, shop windows, sound insulation Doors and windows, sound barriers, vehicle doors and windows, instrument panels, light guides, liquid crystal displays, etc. PMMA modification and composite materials technology are rapidly advancing, and PMMA has expanded its applications in medical polymer materials, optical display materials, and plastic optical fibers. The prospects are bright. As the output of flat-panel TVs soars and the demand for on-board liquid crystal displays soars, the optical-grade PMMA has become the most promising field with a large potential market.
At present, the global PMMA market demand is expected to be 1.4 million tons, and the global production capacity will total about 2.14 million tons. The capacity is also out of serious excess.
According to the HC Plastics Network, PMMA is mainly used in the electronics industry and construction industry. Although the domestic PMMA production capacity is not small, but the product structure is not reasonable, only ordinary varieties can be produced, and high value-added products are lacking. The high-end varieties and quality are difficult to achieve. To meet domestic demand, the foreign dependency rate remains high.
Yantai Wanhua plans to build an 80,000-ton per year PMMA (ultra-transparent optical grade polymethyl methacrylate resin) plant and plans to start production in the first half of 2018. The project will have the world's largest PMMA single-line production capacity. Currently, the PMMA capacity in the mainland is only With 340,000 tons, accounting for 15% of global production capacity, the release of Wanhua PMMA will have a positive impact on the domestic PMMA market.
Special performance nylon product market demand
With the rising demand in the high-temperature nylon market in China, and the usage increasing year by year, it is expected that China's demand for high-temperature nylon will increase by 15% to 25% in the next few years. Although the most common market material for 3D printing is ABS, PLA In fact, nylon is the most widely used material. It is estimated that by 2021, nylon will occupy 30% market share of the 3D printing material market.
Total caprolactam consumption
Nylon 6Mainly used for the production of fiber, with a market share of 72%, engineering plastics accounted for 23%, and films accounted for 5%.
The domestic nylon 6 increased from 1.5 million tons to 2 million tons in 2010 to about 3.5 million tons to 4 million tons in 2017. The output has also gradually increased year by year. The global aspect, between 2009 and 2014, The output did not change much, ranging from 1.5 million tons to 2 million tons. Starting in 2015, production capacity began to increase, and it was already around 5 million tons in 2017. The output also increased to about 3 million tons.
In terms of imports and exports, the domestic nylon 6 import volume has been higher than the export volume. In 2017, the export volume increased to reach 105,100 tons, but the import volume was close to 3 times, reaching 364,500 tons.
Nylon 66 has a global production capacity of 3.08 million tons. On the import and export side, the import volume of nylon 66 in 2008 was 224,000 tons. During the period from 2010 to 2017, the import volume was maintained at over 200,000 tons. The export volume was 40,000. About tons.
In recent years, with the development of the automobile industry, energy saving and improvement of safety performance have gradually become the main direction of automotive research work. Special nylons that are resistant to oil, heat, shock, noise and self-extinguishing are favored by the automotive industry. , Through continuous technology upgrades, automotive engines will develop to miniaturization, turbocharging technology will become the mainstream, matching high-temperature nylon materials is expected to usher in a larger market. In addition, in addition to the automotive sector, with the integration of electronic products The high temperature nylon material of the electronic connector industry will also generate greater market demand.