'5G is too hot, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology requires us to be cautious.' Recently, Li Jing (a pseudonym) close to a communications company executive told the Daily Economic News reporter. According to the plan, some cities in China will be able to use 5G in the second half of 2019. , 2020 is expected to start commercial scale.
The arrival of 5G means that the three major operators are returning to the starting point technically and are expected to reconstruct the market competition situation. However, the status quo is not satisfactory. Many people in the industry have expressed similar views to reporters. Operators face 5G. Pressure on construction funds. Excitement and ambiguity enveloped the three major operators, especially China Telecom and China Unicom, where market share fell.
'The three major operators faced an ambiguous attitude toward 5G construction, and they looked forward to the application of new technologies. At the same time, they were worried about their power. They were afraid of being overtaken by competitors, and the investment pressure was too high. The 4G cost has not yet been recovered.' A Heilongjiang operator told reporters .
4G is still in the investment period
At present, China has carried out 5G scale tests in multiple cities. According to the corresponding plans, China is expected to achieve 5G pre-commercial use in some regions by 2019, and to achieve large-scale formal commercial use in 2020.
In fact, users really need to use 5G? Institutional forecast, analogous to the growth rate of 4G users, it is estimated that 5G penetration will increase to 60% in 2022. In other words, by 2022, more than half of users will use it. On 5G mobile phones, operators as the main body of communication network construction and operation will directly influence when users can use a new generation of high-speed communication technology.
Prior to this, the three major operators have been pursuing 4G network coverage nationwide. From China Mobile, China Unicom, and China Telecom, it can be seen that the optimization of 4G networks is still the focus of operators this year. 2018 The investment in mobile 4G is estimated to be in the order of 50 billion yuan. Last year, a large proportion of China Unicom's funds were used in the 4G network.
Take China Mobile as an example. At the end of 2013, China Mobile obtained a 4G TD license. Since 2014, China Mobile’s 4G network has been opened for scale construction and commercial use. The financial data show that between 2014 and 2017, China Mobile’s 4G network investment was 80.6 billion yuan respectively, 791 Billion yuan, 83 billion yuan and 65.7 billion yuan, this figure is predicted to be 58.5 billion yuan in 2018. During the five-year period, China Mobile's investment in the 4G network exceeds 360 billion yuan.
According to statistics, as of the end of 2017, China Mobile has 1.87 million 4G base stations nationwide, covering 99% of the country's population. China Unicom, China Telecom’s total number of 4G base stations in the same period was 850,000, 1.17 million. According to this estimate, plus other matching Facilities costs, the three major operators in the 4G network to build at least 800 billion in size.
Li Jing told reporters that operators' 4G construction needs to enter remote villages to achieve universal service, and the input and output of these places cannot be balanced. Looking at the overall situation, operators' 4G investment has not yet been recovered. 'On the one hand, it is profitable. On the other hand, we must also do a good job in the national information infrastructure. Operators' profit space is getting smaller and smaller. ' Li Jing said to the reporter of the "Daily Economic News".
In addition, the speeding up and fee reduction work has continued to push forward, and the performance pressure of the three major operators has also increased. After cancelling long distance and roaming charges in September last year, operators' traffic roaming charges will disappear in July this year.
5G Needs Accurate Investment to Find a Low Cost Solution
The data provided by the analysis department of the CITICS communications industry to the reporter of the “Daily Economic News” shows that it is expected that China will officially start 5G construction in 2019 and build it on a large scale from 2020. It is expected that the future 5G base station volume will be 2 times that of 4G. The main investment of operators in 5G network construction may reach 1.23 trillion yuan, a 68% increase over 4G investment.
In addition to continuing to increase network speeds, 5G will also meet the low latency, high reliability, and high-density performance required for human-to-human and object-to-item communication. This will ultimately open the era of “all things connected,” all of which will make 5G construction costs comparable to 4G era steep increase.
Does the 5G construction method choose independent or non-independent networking? The three major operators did not give a clear answer to the Daily Economic News reporter. An operator told reporters that the industry is generally recommended as an independent group. Net, and this means higher investment.
Huawei told the "Daily Economic News" reporter that different countries and regions may need to apply different strategies. In China, the gradual transition from a non-independent network to an independent network, the upgrade is smoother and more suitable for national conditions.
Considering the compatibility of existing network resources, operators may build 5G networks in some densely populated areas and use 4G networks elsewhere to achieve complementarity between 4G networks and 5G networks. Asked whether it is for 'cost saving' consideration. Operators directly use a 'poor' word to describe the operator's embarrassment, 'do not do the whole network, after all, to consider the actual application'.
Some industry analysts believe that with China Mobile’s current cash flow of more than 400 billion yuan, it is possible for China Mobile to build a nationwide 5G network.
Judging from the current situation, China Mobile is the most active in 5G construction, but it is also facing the cost pressure of 5G construction. Vice President of China Mobile Li Zhengmao stated at the World Mobile Conference in 2018 that it is difficult to build 5G networks, and the investment is large. High frequency bands, difficulties in adding new sites, etc. Even with the use of medium-frequency bands, it is difficult to achieve continuous network coverage. In terms of cost, large-scale antennas make 5G base stations more expensive, and new or large-scale core network reconstruction is needed. Transmission network, all operators need to explore low-cost solutions.
China Telecom also stated that it is an important issue for global operators to fully utilize the advantages of 5G technology and make rational use of existing 4G investments. It is an important issue for global operators to realize network investment and maximize value on the basis of guaranteeing service capabilities and user perception.
“The current industry consensus is that 5G should be precisely invested and should not be fully rolled out. Although the network is the operator's core competitiveness, but the business model, service is also a driving force for the advancement of the information society. ' Li Jing said.