According to the timetable given by US President Trump on the signing of the presidential memorandum on March 23rd, the U.S. Trade Representative will present a list of products implementing punitive tariffs on April 6.
However, the U.S. side is very keen to solve the problem at the negotiating table. Earlier, U.S. Finance Minister Mukuchin said that he is negotiating with the Chinese government. It is only in the view of international trade experts that the Trump administration's demands have been reduced. The effect of the trade deficit is probably not great.
However, in the past short span of the past week, a number of U.S. media have reported that US soybean farmers, Boeing airplanes, etc. will be damaged if they start a trade war. , And consumers in the United States are even more vulnerable.
It is reported that US agricultural companies, including the Soybean Association, are communicating with U.S. trade representatives on punitive tariff issues.
Contradictory American Appeal
A few days ago, the Wall Street Journal reported that Munuchin stated that he was negotiating with China. Munuchin said that the United States hopes that the Chinese government will relax market access for foreign-funded enterprises, cancel joint venture restrictions, cancel technology transfer, and increase financial markets. Access, reduce auto import taxes, increase purchases of US semiconductors, etc.
According to Tu Xinquan, dean of the WTO Research Institute of the University of International Business and Economics, the U.S. demands are not very effective for Trump's consistent claim to reduce the trade deficit between the United States and China.
These requirements are almost exactly the same as the "China Business Environment Survey 2018" published by the American Chamber of Commerce in China earlier this year.
Cai Ruide, chairman of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, told the “China Business” reporter that Trump’s measures to raise tariffs and restrict Chinese investment in the United States are very worrying for the members of the Chamber of Commerce. It’s just an eyebrow because they fear that China will take revenge. Obviously, It will cause harm to the United States, China, and the global economy. 'The United States took this measure at the risk of economic damage, which shows that the United States believes that China's forced technology transfer, theft of cyber crimes, and discriminatory industrial policies are very serious.'
According to a survey conducted by the American Chamber of Commerce in China, US companies in China most hope that the U.S. government can win a fair business environment and reciprocal market access for them. We believe that China and the United States maintain close communication and focus on reciprocal treatment. , will be the best way to create a fair business environment. ' Tsai Reid said.
Tu Xinquan believes that if China and the United States negotiate successfully, China may make some concessions in market opening, mainly addressing the issue of US companies investing in China.
However, asking China to open up investment and reduce the trade deficit is to some extent counterproductive. Competitive American companies expanding investment in China and setting up factories may also increase the trade deficit between the United States and China. 'There are only a few people. Regarding the industries in which they are located, no one really cares about the macroeconomic aggregates, does it reduce the trade deficit, even if Trump does not really care about the trade deficit? ' Tu Xinquan said, 'They are self-contradictory, different people think There are different things that can be calculated. The American steel industry wants to protect, the US market is closed, and the high-tech and financial industries want Chinese market access.
'The trade deficit is a false proposition. The real substantive issue is import competition and investment access.' Tu Xinquan stressed.
Zhou Shichen, a senior researcher at the Center for Sino-U.S. Relations at Tsinghua University, said that China has been working hard to reduce its trade surplus with the United States. It has been purchasing oil and natural gas in bulk since last year.
However, according to Tu Xinquan, the competitiveness of other U.S. products is not high. U.S. car companies have already set up factories in China, and the impact of lower tariffs is not significant. In addition, Chinese tourists are in Europe for consumer goods and luxury goods. The amount of purchases far exceeds that of the United States. And China wants high-tech new technologies exported by the United States. The United States has been slow to relax its export controls.
Trump supporters will be injured
According to the South China Morning Post, on March 30, US local time, U.S. Trade Representative Lite Shizzle invited U.S. agribusiness groups, including the American Soybean Association and the U.S. Pork Producers Council, to discuss the impact of the Sino-U.S. trade war.
According to statistics from the Agricultural Research and Development Center of Iowa State University, from 2000 to 2015, the export of agricultural products from the United States (7.250, 0.04, 0.55%) to China increased threefold, from US$51 billion to US$150 billion. One quarter of soybean production, 60% of exports, are destined for China.
Trump’s decision to impose punitive tariffs on China has just been introduced, and the US soybean growers could not sit still. According to foreign media reports, the soybean delegation from Iowa to the US Ambassador to China Blandstad and China Officials from the Ministry of Agriculture reflected concerns. Now, American agricultural companies, especially soybean farmers, are worried that China will no longer import US agricultural products.
Tu Xinquan stated that U.S. agriculture will have a certain influence on the measures taken in the 301 survey, because agricultural voters have always been strong supporters of the Republican Party, but how much influence can be produced depends on the strength of the agricultural representative's lobbying. 'Agricultural output value accounts for U.S. GDP. Only 1% or so, the U.S. agricultural population is only 0.4%, and the number of votes is very small, which makes sense for members of some constituencies. However, it does not make much sense for Trump. Members can only use Members to put pressure on Trump.
On the other hand, U.S. retailers such as Wal-Mart et al. stated that if 'Made in China' products are taxed, they will inevitably cause price increases. This means that low-income families will pay more for this, and these low-income families Voted for Trump during the election.
The U.S. Tax Foundation pointed out that Trump’s punitive tariffs on Chinese products will affect the benefits of the tax reduction act by about 20%.
Zhou Shiji believes that the US Tax Foundation's estimate is very likely. 'I once said that China's exports of cheap and affordable American goods will help reduce US inflation and improve the lives of the majority of low- and middle-income people. The United States’ former Secretary of State Powell also I agree with this sentence. Trump imposes tariffs that do not actually increase the tariffs on Chinese exporters, but instead add American importers, pass them on to wholesalers and retailers, and pass them on to consumers.
In Zhou Shixuan's view, the Chinese people and society are far more tolerant of trade warfare than the United States. 'From 1950 to 1972, the United States imposed a blockade and embargo on China. China has no blasphemy. The days of the Chinese people's past are very simple. It is very strong. And if American shoes, textiles, and clothing increase by 20% to 30%, the American people (71.210, 1.68, 2.42%) will go to the president.'
Trump intends to vote in mid-term elections. If the Republican Party cannot guarantee a majority of seats in the two houses, Trump will become a lame duck in the years following his term of office, because all expenses must pass through the National Assembly, otherwise the government will close. The mid-term elections will also threaten re-election. Trump is now anxious to re-election, even slogans have come out. 'Zhou Shiyi said that everything Trump has done is to tell the American people, 'In order to defend your interests I have nothing Dare to do it.
'Unfortunately, this earth did not leave without leaving the United States. Trump announced its withdrawal from the TPP on the third day after taking office. Japan is very hopeful that Trump will be able to change his mind. Trump asked to amend the agreement before he considers joining. On March 7th this year, the original 11 members of the TPP, including Japan, signed in Argentina and entered into force in 2019. 'Zhou Shiyi said.
The impact on China remains to be assessed
Previously, the U.S. Trade Office reported that the U.S. punitive tariffs were mainly targeted at the "China Made 2025" industry. Although the list of specific taxable products has not yet been announced, many agencies have already given their own. Analysis and forecasting.
ICBC International believes that US measures may bring about 0.1% to 0.3% negative impact on China's economy. More foreign institutions suggest that the impact on China's GDP may reach 1.3% to 3.2%. However, many Chinese brokers The results of the analysis are all optimistic. They believe that the impact of media predictions on multiple industries that may be taxed will not be significant.
In response, Tu Xinquan stated that China’s high-tech products do not have a lot of exports to the United States and therefore have little impact; The specific impact still needs to be assessed after the list is issued, and the list may not be implemented in the end.
The intention of the United States to push China back to the negotiating table is obvious. On the day Trump signed the president’s memorandum, US Secretary of Commerce Ross clearly expressed this point: 'You will come to me for a few shots and you will eventually return to negotiations. The table comes to an agreement. '
Subsequently, the Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. Treasury Secretary stated that he was in secret talks with China. On March 28, local time, Wright Seazer said in an interview with a media reporter that the number of days for the United States to impose tariffs on China’s products will be 30 days extended to 60 days, no tariffs will be imposed before June this year.
But soon, Rose said in an interview with a media reporter that Trump may soon publish punitive tariffs against China.
Zhou Shijun said: 'Trump wants to use the stick to force China to sign the alliance under the city. However, the window period for soliciting opinions has been extended from 30 days to 60 days. It seems that he is guilty. The attitude of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs is very clear: First revoke the 301 investigation, and then Sit down for equal negotiation. '
The U.S. and U.S. forces have now undergone significant changes. In 2001, U.S. GDP accounted for 33% of the world's total, and in 2016 it dropped to 24.66% of the world; in 2001 China's GDP accounted for 3.8% of the world, and in 2016 it rose to 15% of the world. In 2001, China's GDP accounted for 12.8% of the United States, and it accounted for 62.2% in 2017. ' Zhou Shizhen said that China is emboldened and we are not afraid of trade war.
Zhou Shiji believes that China cannot compromise this time. Compromise will lead to endless troubles. 'On the Taiwan issue, Trump is the most arrogant American president since Nixon. Trump has used Taiwan as a card to force China to make concessions on economic trade. If this is the case, then it will be used to persecute China in the face of dissatisfaction. China and the United States are now looking to see who can't calm themselves. Trump's blackmail tactics can only intimidate the nervous breakdown.'
Zhou Shikai believes that Trump is a typical businessman. He will be more pragmatic than anyone else when he encounters real opponents.