■Reporter Sun Bin Yu Jianping Beijing Report
Within a week, Trump’s trade war will target a wider range of Chinese goods. In the short term, the impact of Trump’s seemingly tough new tariff on the traditional manufacturing of automobiles may not be as desirable as the industry wishes. The United States’ largest auto market is in China, but with the current sales capability of the Chinese auto manufacturing industry, even if the US maintains a 2% tariff, the returning vehicles from China’s ports are compared with those of Buick, Ford’s in China. , It is also completely unstoppable to an order of magnitude.
From the standpoint of the several Huaxia Times automakers that were exposed to the China-based Huamei Automobile manufacturing company, it can be seen that the automakers that have a large number of export trade in China have stepped up the pace of localization. Instead of traditional trade, Starting from the new energy manufacturing sector that Trump cares about, a large number of new forces in the development of new energy vehicles are evolving in this round, and they need to be vigilant enough to prevent the hollowing out of the industry after the technology blockade.
Tesla or more dangerous than the traditional US Department
In the current Sino-U.S. automobile trade pattern, the Chinese output is mainly automotive spare parts, and a small amount of U.S.-made cars are returned to vehicles and electric buses, while the U.S. is full vehicles, among which are many non-traditional car manufacturers such as Tesla that rely entirely on import channels. Business, also includes General Motors, Ford, JCEP brands under the FCA Group, etc.
After Trump announced the above tariff decision, the three largest car companies in the U.S. General Motors, Ford and FCA shares fell by 3.9%, 3.0% and 2.8%, respectively.
According to previous OEM reports, GM’s China-based Buick Electronics Co., Ltd. and Cadillac CT6 models are all sold back to the US market in the form of imported vehicles. GM China stated that 'this information company needs to learn more details' , and promised to release an official statement at the right time.
Ford China said in an interview, 'We hope that the two governments will work together to solve the problem between the two major economies'. This US automaker announced in June 2017 that it will be the 4th sales in the United States since 2019 Defox (fourth-generation models) will be imported from China.
Now Chrysler (China) Automobile Sales Co., Ltd., which basically relies on import trade in its profit structure and channels, is pushing the new JEEP large commander to local production in the Changsha factory. Currently in the terminal market, this product Car sales companies, which are known for their sales, are using flexible price-performance tactics, and Jaguar Land Rover, which is also trying to gain greater market share in this market, has accelerated PK.
But Alan Musk, the CEO of Tesla Motors, which really started the tariff, needs to face the current Shanghai Lingang (24.940, 0.01, 0.04%). Maybe it should be the Chinese government’s trade countermeasures. Backdating from December 15, 2011 to December 14, 2013, the Ministry of Commerce issued an announcement announcing that it was originally produced in the United States in accordance with the provisions of China’s anti-dumping and countervailing regulations. Imported cars and off-road vehicles with a displacement of 2.5 liters or more are subject to anti-dumping duties and countervailing duties. The implementation period is two years. During this period, some imported cars in the United States have to increase their prices and their competitiveness in the Chinese market is seriously impaired.
Considering Tesla's electric vehicle background, perhaps the Chinese government will not choose the new energy sector as a trade cut for the sake of industry protection. However, Tesla has not tried the channel-building mode for many years, mainly relying on electricity. The sales strategy of the sales may not be able to stand still for the time being, and no better Chinese market can be found.
German Reactions
The market opportunity is often fleeting, and it is you who come and go and pay lip service.
When Cadillac just turned around and seized the fourth place in the Chinese luxury car market in addition to the BBA last year, it first needed to face another zero-sum game within the SAIC system. Before the U.S. government made the relevant statement, it was March. On the 23rd, Audi officially announced its cooperation with SAIC and there were market rumors that the two parties would establish a sales company in Hangzhou covering Audi FAW, SAIC Audi, and Audi's three major systems. 'SAIC Audi' began rumors from the end of 2016 to 3 Falling real hammer.
After joining Audi, SAIC will bid farewell to the era of Cadillac luxury car brand and formally own a first-tier luxury brand. A SuZhe supply company supplier in the SAIC supply chain stated: 'In the past, it was only for general use , Audi to join, will greatly enhance the level of supply chain of SAIC Motor itself. The direct beneficiaries at the same time include SAIC Volkswagen. The indirect beneficiaries also include SAIC Passenger Vehicle.
In other words, in addition to the US Department's option, SAIC just had an extra German channel in March. China-EU cooperation may gain more negotiation space because of the impact of tariff events. The reporter took special note of a detail. Last week, Volkswagen (China) ) In collaboration with North and South China Volkswagen, several SUVs were released in China. There are even two new products specifically designed for the Chinese market. The competing market that the new Volkswagen models are directly facing will be Buick, the existing living space for Chevrolet. .
Similarly, from the Toyota side, during the two sessions, Toyoda President Toyoda took off in Beijing, and then Toyoda's father, Shoujiro Shoujiro, also rushed to Beijing. For the purpose of Toyota's highest level of visit to China, the official maintains this. According to Bloomberg News, Toyota began suspending autopilot test drive in California and Michigan in March, and announced that suspension of the L4 road test was suspended.
The road test in the United States is only part of Toyota's autopilot road test plan. For US companies such as Google, General Motors, and Ford, this will be all of them. The suspended L4 is not in Toyota's autopilot strategy. Including 'priority', for the urgency of mass production of L4 in late 2018 and the mass production of L4 in 2019, is a top priority.
It can be said that Toyota will use its own "little sacrifices" in exchange for the "great sacrifice" of rivals like Google and General Motors. It will advance at its own pace, but it will either force its opponent to stop at its own pace or let you raise it repeatedly.
Preventing technological hollowing
The purpose of Toyota's visit to China was impossible to speculate until Toyota's official explanation was obtained. However, a clear signal sent by Toyota is worthy of caution for all Chinese auto makers and the capital circle for betting on new energy.
In addition to the Chinese market, the major sales destination for Japanese OEMs is the United States. Therefore, the layout of their models and the focus of technical advancement are also focused on the high-speed operation of the US market. If we only observe the wrestle between China and the United States from the perspective of trade, With respect to the buying and selling relationship, there is no more open space for capital outflows; or, if Toyota Akio only cares about whether a U.S. origin model can be exported to China or a Chinese-made hybrid engine, can it be sold overseas? , It is easy to narrow the thinking of global car owners.
Toyota’s car companies really care about the comprehensive analysis of how the Chinese and U.S. governments are in a brand new situation, how both sides deal with energy structure, market guidance, and competition in new technologies and core intellectual property fields. Whether it will lead to cross-country car companies in the R & D route, market judgments are inaccurate.
A fairly obvious example is that as many as thousands of new energy vehicle supporting enterprises have gathered in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, only waiting for the NDRC. The number of new energy vehicle projects approved by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has reached 100, and it seems to be a blue ocean market space. , Only a handful of complete vehicles and supporting companies have mastered battery, motor, electronic control, and automatic driving development core technologies.
On the other hand, the U.S. side looks like Google’s operation and maintenance in the area of automated driving, giant car companies like Ford and GM are turning their elephants from their own operations, or high-tech companies such as Nvidia’s tech giants who are able to influence the prospects of car networking. In fact, this is the key factor in the current trend of global car companies in the determination of the limelight.
An interview with a reporter from an unnamed Fujianese Taiwanese businessman in the Foxconn supply chain said: “The Taiwanese companies’ experience in farming in the Su and Guangdong markets for many years tells us that as long as we rely on scale, we can rely on the mainland market. Rapid copying and manpower dividends reduce costs. The problem is that when you are accustomed to the traditional model and the technology becomes hollow, it will be difficult for the representative to develop into a brand business. “I believe this sentence is not just for many traditional car companies. Hearing, for many of the new forces that are determined to break down barriers in the industry, hope to use capital to shuffle their manufacturing circles, and upgrade their intellectual circle, are equally useful - to explore billions of trade wars and learn that Toyota does not follow suit, otherwise, sooner or later Become someone else's leeks.