In 2017, the shipments of global component shipments will generally be at a low level. According to the statistics of EnergyTrend of New Energy Research Center's New Energy Research Center, Jibang New Energy Network, the total shipment volume in 2017 reached 103GW, including five major integrated plants (Jinke, Trina, Jingao, Artes, Hanwha) and the two major silicon faucet factories (GCL, Longji Leye) play an integral role. The shipments of these companies are nearly 50 GW; almost half of them are shipped. Shares are estimated based on the expected expansion of the above-mentioned manufacturers in 2018; each is looking at the situation of shipments that exceed 10 GW; both the actual shipments and the proportions have the opportunity to exceed half of the global, it can be said The future market is indeed a big game for Evergrande.
Table 1, Top 5 Global Module Shipments in 2017
The above table shows Jinko Energy, which ranked first in 2017. For example, in 2017, 9.8 GW shipped to the 10 GW mark, which is 47.4% higher than the 6.65 GW in 2016. The 2018 forecast also came to 11.5-12 GW. Level, based on the information released by other manufacturers; If it really meets the above figures to break through 10GW, it seems that one of the key factors in securing a position is that shipments continue to grow at a double-digit rate year after year.
Monocrystalline and polycrystalline: Brothers climb their respective efforts
Since the layout of the single crystal and polycrystalline module production capacity will vary depending on the market and product requirements, together with the results of multiple technology stacks; indirectly affect the competition between single crystal and polycrystalline silicon, we Here we describe the two products of single crystal and polycrystalline.
If we look at the single crystal module shipment rankings, we can clearly see that monocrystalline silicon chip maker Longji Leye jumped to the top in one fell swoop, mainly because the factory focused on the production of single crystal products; everything from the upstream Silicon wafers, the middle of the battery to the module shipments, are all known as single crystal brand, is expected to have more than double the strength of growth in 2018.
Overall, the total shipments of single-crystal modules in 2017 accounted for approximately 31.1%; the shipment volume was equivalent to 32GW, regardless of the proportion and the number; both had a lot more growth than 2016, although the overall market is still polycrystalline. The world; With the expansion of two large single crystal silicon wafer factories in 2018; including 28GW of Longji Music and 23GW of Central; plus the production capacity of other manufacturers, we estimate that the single crystal production capacity can reach 60GW. The proportion of single crystal components and shipments will certainly exceed the 2017 data.
Table 2, the top five global single crystal module shipments in 2017
In addition, we also saw the ranking of another polycrystalline wafer faucet maker. The reason for the victory is actually similar to that of the above-mentioned Longji Leye. Both are focused on silicon products produced in the industry. And then derived from the export of components of their own brand, GCL integration can not jump the top spot in one fell swoop; but through the expansion of downstream production and market demand, I believe there is also the opportunity to become the top of the list.
In 2017, the overall polycrystalline silicon shipments also exceeded the 70GW level, although the overall proportion decreased slightly. However, as shipments increased across the entire market, shipments of polycrystalline silicon modules also rose, and polysilicon wafers expanded. The progress of the project is not stopped either. With a GCL head plant, the company can produce 24GW, plus the capacity of other manufacturers. Easily surpassing the 77GW capacity of last year is not a problem.
Table 3, Top 5 Global Polycrystalline Module Shipments in 2017
Overlay of multiple technologies; the power of the components
The popularity of PERC technology
In 2017, no matter how many single-crystal manufacturers are making full efforts to develop their own PERC process, in addition to the leading limit of China's “leadership plan”, various manufacturers have listed PERC as a standard to maximize production efficiency. The production process, at the same time as the improvement of process capability; manufacturers continue to develop breakthrough conversion efficiency improvements, so the standard PERC process has been unable to meet the existing process capabilities, additional small technology changes added; such as: selective emission Electrode or screenless screen printing and other related micro-efficiency enhancement methods are the direction of the manufacturers.
Double-sided, half-cut and multi-gate applications
In addition to making breakthroughs in battery manufacturing, the changes in the components are also part of the efforts of manufacturers to improve their capabilities. Take the PV EXPO in Japan in early 2018 as an example. The products displayed by each component factory will not be left half cut. HC) technology and related products of Multi-Bus Bar (MBB) technology; even multi-technology overlay, some manufacturers even show PERC technology to superimpose double-sided technology products, these messages also indicate that the 2018 component products are not Again just a single form (technical) display, it will be a diversity of combinations and changes.
Looking forward to the ranking of each shipment in 2018, expanding its own seaport is a matter of utmost urgency. Once sufficient demand can be grasped, there is no need to worry about the issue of overcapacity. Take China’s domestic demand as the top spot in the world. It is still preferred for everyone, but it is not the only solution for over-concentrated market betting. It is necessary to create an even distribution of product and distribution of its own products; this can be regarded as the strategic layout of mature and integrated manufacturers. For the two major silicon chip leader. When the plant enters the stage of integration and expansion in 2018, it will be necessary to expand the overall supply chain layout so that it will have the opportunity to catch up with the top five traditional integrated factories. This is also the trend that the latecomers must catch up with.
