Qualcomm Xiaolong series has always been the most commonly used chip in China's flagship handset model. Some people speculated that the reason for this price increase was due to trade disputes between China and the United States. However, some industry insiders pointed out that the chip is still trade between China and the United States. The focus of the game, the reason for this price fluctuation is that Apple will launch a mid-range full-screen mobile phone in April, resulting in a shortage of chip upstream component wafers.
'Screens, chips, storage are still the most expensive three-piece mobile phone parts. The current screen supply has been relatively stable, and storage is still high as it is still being upgraded,' said Yan Zhanming, and the next wave is expected. There will be a slight increase in the price of the machine.
Trade Game Will Not Spread to Chip Supply
Last week, US President Trump signed the president’s memorandum and announced that it will impose large-scale tariffs on goods imported from China. This has also led to speculation that the industry’s mobile phone and chip industries will be affected.
'Once you start, the first impact will be the production of high-precision equipment and testing equipment for mobile phone components, resulting in production capacity can not keep up, the core components of the mobile phone and the overall price will rise,' the first mobile phone industry research institute Sun Yanmin Said, but not only domestic mobile phones, including Apple's production will also be affected.
The list of the top 200 suppliers of Apple in 2018 released by Rising Sun Data shows that there are 170 suppliers in mainland China, accounting for 85%, mainly in Jiangsu and Guangdong provinces. 'Apple's whole production is in China, It is very difficult for short-term manufacturing to return. If we take the whole machine, it would be equal to 'one thousand enemy kills and eight hundred damages'', said Li Chunli, research director of Rising Sun Data.
However, for the supply of chips, people in the industry believe that this will become the focus of Sino-US trade game.
According to data from the Haitong Securities Research Institute, the share of China's integrated circuit market in global share is still increasing, starting from 7% in 2000, and is expected to reach 46% by 2020 (about 43% in 2017).
'China has become the world's largest semiconductor consumer, so China’s trade decision has a huge impact on the semiconductor industry and its manufacturers. Once they are handed over, the US semiconductor companies represented by Qualcomm are the first to be affected', a person in the semiconductor industry. According to the statistics of the International Semiconductor Industry Association (SEMI), the local chip self-sufficiency rate is 25% in 2016, and it is expected that self-sufficiency rate will still be less than 30% in the next three years.
From the perspective of the supply chain, 80% of the total machine manufacturing currently takes place in China. The United States mainly provides semiconductor chips and patent-related services related to intellectual property. Therefore, the United States has a high probability that it will require China to increase its procurement of chips. Protection of intellectual property. ' Li Chunli said.
At the same time, domestic mobile phone manufacturers began to try to use their own chips. On the evening of March 27th, Huawei's P20 and P20Pro launched in Paris, France were all equipped with Kylin 970 chips developed by the company last year. The NPU integrated artificial intelligence processing unit. . Yu Chengdong, chairman of Huawei Terminal, said that the NPU can provide strong technical support for real-time scene recognition applications, so that mobile phones can continue to 'learn' and 'train' to obtain updates and upgrades. In the AI operation, Kirin 970 completely exceeded One of the most powerful mobile chips today, including Apple's A11 and Qualcomm's Xiaolong 845.
On the other hand, the government is also constantly increasing its support for the domestic semiconductor industry.
In June 2014, the State Council promulgated the “Outline for Promoting the Development of the National IC Industry” and established a large fund. In September of the same year, Guokai Financial Co., Ltd. and Beijing Yizhuang International Investment Development Co., Ltd. jointly invested to establish a national IC industry investment. Fund. At the recent SEMICONChina2018 industry and technology investment forum, Ding Wenwu, president of the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund Co., Ltd. (referred to as the 'large fund') introduced that by the end of 2017, the large funds had effectively invested in 67 projects, accumulating The project promised an investment of 118.8 billion yuan, and actually invested 81.8 billion yuan, accounting for 86% and 61% of the total fundraising in the first phase. The investment project covers all aspects of integrated circuit design, manufacturing, packaging and testing, equipment, materials, and ecological construction. , To achieve a complete layout of the industry chain.
Apple will release mid-range full screen mobile phone in April
Many people in the mobile phone industry believe that the Qualcomm Snapdragon 845 chip price rise has nothing to do with trade disputes, but rather the supply of chip suppliers upstream from the chip (wafer refers to silicon wafers used in silicon semiconductor integrated circuit manufacturing). shortage.
'Apple and Qualcomm are competing for the supply of wafers', Sun Yanxi pointed out that it is expected that Apple will release a mid-priced full-screen mobile phone in April to fill the price segment between iPhone 6s and iPhone X. 'Only iPhone 6s and iPhone X Is currently still selling two Apple mobile phones. 'Can see in the official website of Apple, iPhoneX price from 8388 yuan, iPhone6s price from 3788 yuan.
'Apple began stocking new machines in January. As a result, the production capacity of the entire Taiwan fab has soared to meet Apple's orders. With the rising demand from Xiaomi, OPPO and Vivo, the demand for wafers by Qualcomm chips is increasing day by day. The tight supply, the price stays relatively high,' Sun Yanxi said.
It is worth noting that the Xiaomi mix2s series equipped with the Xiaolong 845 chip has not changed in price, which is consistent with Xiaomi ix2 with Xiaolong 835 chip. The Xiaolong 845 chip needs 90 to 120 US dollars at the end of last year. , but millet's bulk can be obtained at the lowest price, and now it can be obtained for almost $50,' said one supply chain source. Currently, the price of the 835 (Qualcomm Xiaolong's previous generation flagship chip) is also between $40 and $50. 660 (Qualcomm Snapdragon high-end chip) price is about 18 US dollars.
For other mobile phone manufacturers with insufficient body mass, will there be another wave of price increase under the pressure of rising costs?
'Samsung and Xiaomi will be the largest two customers of the Xiaolong 845 chip, with shipments between 3 million and 5 million,' said Yan Zhanmeng, director of research at counterpoint. Other vendors' prices will be at least $10 more than millet. As far as the current exposure is concerned, OnePlus and Nubia have their flagship products equipped with Qualcomm Xiaolong 845 processor to be released. One network and one extra 6 are priced at US$749, which is about RMB 4,700. Compared with the current one plus 5T high version with more than 1,000 yuan increase; Nubia recently signed a partnership with PricewaterhouseCoopers to seek operational efficiency improvement.
'Screens, chips, storage are still the most expensive three-piece mobile phone parts. The current screen supply has been relatively stable, and storage is still high as it is still being upgraded,' Yan Zhanmeng said, expecting the next wave of new ones. There will be a slight increase in the price of the machine.