The China-US trade war commented on a lot, some of them are self-conscious, and most of them are muscles;
It's not right to ignore China's progress because of the Trump 301 investigation.
Hyun muscle is also not necessary. In the high-tech field, the United States is far ahead of China.
Huawei is very strong. One Huawei can't support the entire high-tech industry in China, but it has made the United States realize that China's rise is terrible;
Although China's semiconductor industry has made rapid progress, it is far from challenging Europe and the United States.
The 301 survey used China’s acquisition of US semiconductors as an excuse. In fact, neither ISI nor iML is merely a scrap of US semiconductors;
These mergers and acquisitions are far from enough to allow China to challenge the United States. Otherwise, the United States will not approve, but it has become an excuse for the Chinese threat.
Not only the United States, including Europe, especially Germany, have begun to worry about the potential impact of China's M&A boom;
Not only Germany, even South Korea, Japan, and even China Taiwan, although they dare not openly clamour with mainland China, they continue to threaten and harass employees who work for the mainland.
All over the world, especially in developed countries and regions, have begun to feel the increasing threat from China. Whether these threats are in the water or in the moon, they are in the mirror.
If it is not feasible to change the technology before using the market, it has now proved that: Using money to buy technology is nowhere to go;
The United States and Europe believe in intellectual property rights, but these rules have made Huawei the same, unable to stop China.
This also aggravated the fear of Trump, fearing that China would rely on the rise of European and American rules;
The rules of the jungle, the jungle, and the US’s preparedness for China have increased, although China is not enough to challenge the United States;
China must rise by itself, rely on support for local industries, and rely on China's huge market;
Jungle rules, weak meat, if the United States is a lion, China is at least a tiger;
The international rules can be used by the United States, and China can also;
Although there are rules in market competition, rules are made by the leader; amendments are made to the strong;
When China came to amend its own industrial policy!
2. Zhu Shangzu made direct contributions, MediaTek won a large single millet
Since the second half of last year, Xiaomi has collaborated with MediaTek on a new machine R&D program for the P60 chip. Now it is reported that the new chip will be used in the new millet machine. The industry has reported that the key is the current partner of the Xiaomi Industry Investment Department and the former MediaTek Chief Operating Officer Zhu Shangzu's Center for Action.
New 12nm chip sprint shipment
MediaTek's new mid-range mobile phone chips are ready to use TSMC's 12nm process. It is reported that the first customers will be Xiaomi and Vivo. The volume production time is expected to be in the second quarter of this year, and volume shipments will begin in the second half of the year.
Xiaomi staged a large-scale counter-offensive drama for the Jedi from last year. According to the IDC data of the research institute, Xiaomi's mobile phone shipments reached 92.4 million units for the whole of last year, ranking fifth in the world, replacing the previous Vivo position.
Market news points out that Xiaomi will attack the Indian market this year and at the same time, he will fight against the mainland smart phone market to take a seat on the third continental brand.
Although Xiaomi is a mobile phone brand originally established by Qualcomm, in addition to using Qualcomm mobile phone chips this year, MediaTek's chip ratio has also increased significantly. In addition to MediaTek's 12-nm P60 mobile phone chip, the industry is now reporting that MediaTek is a new product. TSMC's 12-nanometer mobile phone chip will be available in the second quarter of this year. It is expected that Xiaomi will also place orders for MediaTek.
Zhu Shangzu moved to the millet investment department
The industry reasoned that Xiaomi decided to expand the adoption of MediaTek mobile phone chips this year. In addition to high cost-effectiveness factors, another reason is that Zhu Shangzu has been working for Xiaomi and MediaTek. Zhu Shangzu, who is now a partner of Xiaomi Industry Investment Department, still has a mobile phone related professional. Knowledge, so it is possible to provide advice at internal conferences and become one of the reasons why Xiaomi favors MediaTek mobile phone chips.
Currently among Chinese smart phone brands, including OPPO, Vivo, and Xiaomi have new machines in the end of the first quarter of this year and the second quarter of this year, which drives MediaTek P60 chip demand to be very buoyant. The new 12nm process chip is also well received by customers. MediaTek has already included TSMC's 12- and 16-nanometer manufacturing capacity and is preparing to sprint and ship in the second quarter of this year.
The industry watch the second quarter revenue
The industry expects that MediaTek’s combined revenue in the second quarter of this year will have the opportunity to exceed 60 billion yuan to rewrite the next highest level since the last six quarters. The shipments of 12, 16, and 28 nanometers will be bright, and the chips under cost improvement will also be improved. Thanks to the favorable comments from customers, this year's gross profit margin is expected to rise to around 39%, as MediaTek expects, to provide a glimpse of MediaTek’s operational transformation this year.
3. Semiconductor plant rankings Nvidia leaps into the 10th largest by AI
According to the latest statistics from IHS Markit, a market research organization, Samsung Electronics benefited from the surge in prices of DRAM and NAND Flash. Last year, sales rose to US$62.31 billion, taking the position of the largest semiconductor company. Intel lost 25 years as the leading semiconductor company. Graphic chip maker Nvidia (NVIDIA) due to artificial intelligence (AI) and cryptocurrency mining demand, revenue growth rate of 42.3% last year, ranking first among the top 10 non-memory manufacturers, ranking 10th.
Last year, DRAM and NAND Flash prices soared, simultaneous shipments zoomed in, driving the memory market scale to rewrite a record high in history, last year, the world's top 10 semiconductor factory rankings also appeared in a major reshuffle. Including Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, Toshiba and other memory The performance of the plant was better than expected. Micron and SK Hynix made great leap forwards, while Qualcomm and Broadcom ranked after five.
Samsung’s revenue increased by 53.6% year-on-year to 62.231 billion yuan last year, making it the world's No. 1 semiconductor company. Intel’s revenue was 61.406 billion yuan last year. It lost 0.2% to Samsung’s market share, but it will still be No. 1. The location of the big factory gave away. As for the 3rd manufacturer SK Hynix, the 4th manufacturer, Micron, etc., benefited from the increase in memory prices, ranking among the top 5 manufacturers.
Due to the slowdown in the growth of smartphone market demand, Broadcom, Qualcomm, MediaTek and other rankings declined. Among them, MediaTek, ranked among the top 10 in the world last year, has dropped out of the top 10 rankings this year, relying instead on catching AI and cryptocurrencies. Nvidia, the big chip maker for graphics chip mining, surged to $8.578 billion in revenue last year. The annual growth rate was as high as 42.3%. The ranking jumped from the 13th year of the previous year to the 10th last year.
4. The trade war affects semiconductors? Taiwan is very confident
The US-China trade war has spread to reduce the purchase of Taiwan’s semiconductor products, and to buy more semiconductor products in the United States to narrow the US-China trade deficit. Qiu Junrong, deputy chairman of Taiwan’s National Development Association, said yesterday that the semiconductor industry in Taiwan has matured steadily. , There is still great confidence in Taiwan's semiconductor industry.
The Taiwan Regional Executive Yuan yesterday discussed the possible impact of the US-China trade friction and responded to the special report. Qiu Junrong told a press conference after the meeting that as far as the government knows, the Taiwanese semiconductor industry is very strong and the mainland is still a long way behind; In terms of the relationship, the Taiwan-US semiconductor cooperation has been continuously strengthened.
The United States is currently aiming at steel and aluminum products. Does the government have any forecast on the next wave of targeted products? Qiu Junrong said that there is no very clear news at the moment.
However, it is rumored that the next wave of U.S. target products is the machine tool, because mainland China has already announced the policy direction of 'Made in China 2025', and the 'smart machinery' that Taiwan is striving to develop will not be affected.
Qiu Junrong pointed out that the main reason for the US launching a trade war is to reduce the trade deficit or prevent technological spillovers. On this logic, the mainland machine tool will not be the care of the United States at present. The machine tool is instead the strength of Taiwan. He believes that the next The risk industry that will be targeted should first inventory what goods are exported from the mainland to the United States.
According to a study by the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the United States may retaliate against 'Made in China's 2025' key industries, including communications products, medical equipment, biotechnology, medicine, telecommunications, semiconductors, new energy vehicles, aerospace and software, etc. If the United States decides Restrictions on import tariffs or service trade in the telecommunications electronics industry have the greatest impact on Taiwan’s indirect exports.
5. China-US semiconductor export data differ by tens of billions of dollars
The IC industry has recently become an unavoidable topic in Sino-US trade frictions.
According to the data of the US Department of Commerce, China's average annual imports of electronic semiconductor components from 2015 to 2017 is approximately US$10 billion.
However, from the actual situation in China, the data is much higher than this.
Excluding Broadcom, according to the 2017 fiscal year data of various semiconductor companies, sales of Intel, Qualcomm, Micron, Texas Instruments and Western Digital in China were US$14.796 billion, US$14.579 billion, US$103.88 billion, and US$6.6 billion, respectively. And 7.528 billion US dollars. Only the above five companies, total exports to China will exceed 50 billion US dollars.
Export data identification
How many integrated circuits (or semiconductors) do the United States export to China each year? For this issue, industry experts gave their opinions to reporters.
'China's annual purchase of semiconductors from the United States is certainly more than 100 billion U.S. dollars, which is more than the sum of aircraft and soybeans. It is the largest commodity. China is the world's largest market for semiconductor imports, and the United States is the largest supplier of semiconductors. This data is wrong. ' Gu Wenjun, chief analyst of the core research said. According to the analysis of the core research, China's imports of integrated circuits from the United States amounted to more than 120 billion US dollars.
But why are the statistics between China and the United States so different?
Wei Shaojun, director of the Department of Microelectronics and Nanoelectronics of Tsinghua University, said in an interview with a reporter from the First Finance Bureau that this is mainly due to the fact that the two sides have different definitions of origin. He explained that this has always been controversial in the semiconductor field. 'The United States has always insisted that The package is the place of origin. If the package is completed in Malaysia (re-import to China), even Malaysia exports to China, not the United States to China. 'He thinks this statistical model is very unreasonable because in the chip industry chain, the package Only a small part of the value. 'Early ten years ago, we debated this issue at the World Semiconductor Council meeting. At that time, the five members of China, the European Union, Japan, and South Korea, including Chinese Taipei, agreed that they should look Where is the place where the highest added value is in chip production? Where is the place of origin? Only the United States opposes it. The United States considers where it is packaged, so the statistics of the United States I think is unreasonable.
Wei Shaojun believes that another more reasonable way is to look at the chip company, 'if you look at the brand, China's imported semiconductors must be the most US brand'.
In terms of statistical methods and channels, there are other differences. Gu Wenjun said, 'Some American companies ordering production in China's Taiwan, manufacturing and re-exporting to mainland China are considered to be exported to Taiwan, even if the final chip enters the mainland market.' According to the company's procurement site, 'Actually, many companies have their headquarters for purchases in Singapore and they think that they are exporting to Singapore. In fact, the chips are ultimately in mainland China. ' In addition, there are also some agents that count, Difficult to count, but we estimate that basically every year, about 120 billion US dollars of integrated circuits are exported from the United States to China, and there are more than 120 billion and even more than 150 billion U.S. dollars.
Wei Shaojun pointed out that China and the United States should form a unified standard on this issue. 'I can't talk nonsense. I feel a bit nonsense now. Who is the biggest beneficiary? It must be the brand owner.'
Semiconductor has zero tariff
In the face of the continuing tight Sino-U.S. trade situation, not only Chinese companies, including Apple, Qualcomm, Intel, etc., have also felt the pressure.
Intel executives told the CBN reporter: 'We don't know yet which products will be affected, but we think that, under normal circumstances, tariffs are a problem for U.S. companies with global supply chains. We hope that the U.S. government will provide comments. When we have more information, we will assess the potential impact. '
Qualcomm President Christiano Amon had previously told reporters that Qualcomm’s chip business from Chinese OEMs in fiscal year 2017 was twice revenue from Apple’s revenue, and that Qualcomm came from Chinese OEMs. The compound annual growth rate of revenues reached 17%. In 2015, this figure was 4 billion US dollars. Last year was 6 billion US dollars, and Qualcomm is expected to reach 8 billion US dollars in 2019.
Wei Shaojun said that if the trade friction between China and the United States really starts in the semiconductor industry, the United States should lose more than China. 'If this happens, I think the US semiconductor industry itself should be firmly opposed to this matter. They may More urgent than we go against this matter. '
In his view, because this time it is necessary to raise tariffs, the United States exports the most semiconductors to China, and China exports very few integrated circuits to the United States. Moreover, if China exports to the United States, it must be a U.S. enterprise set up in China. The factory, or processing in China, then returned to the United States, then this approach must be harmful to US companies. 'On the IC, China is not a big exporter.' Wei Shaojun pointed out.
Gu Wenjun thinks that semiconductors have zero tariffs and the United States will not make any fuss about semiconductors. 'Of course, if you let China buy more products from the United States, the import amount will increase again, although it is possible, but it will be difficult to increase too much. On the one hand, capacity is limited. On the other hand, the United States has involved some high-end or military-type chips that are not sold to China.