China, Japan and South Korea 'Three Kingdoms for Hegemony'
At the press conference of the Volkswagen Group, Volkswagen Group CEO Müller announced a battery procurement plan of up to 50 billion euros. In China and Europe, the largest market, has already reached 20 billion euros in procurement, among which the short-listed supply There are only two merchants - one is the Ningde era in China. Mill did not disclose the name of another company. It only said that the purchase plan from South Korea. The public shows the current market structure in the battery field.
In addition to China and South Korea, Japan, also in East Asia, is also a strong presence in the field of batteries. For example, its domestic Panasonic is already known around the world for supporting Tesla. Battery manufacturers in China, Japan, and Korea have already formed the strongest lineup in the world.
In the sales of global power battery companies in 2017, in the top ten rankings, Chinese companies accounted for seven seats and accounted for most of the market share. Japan and South Korea remained Panasonic, LG, Samsung, and three shipments were 10GWh and 4.5GWh, respectively. , 2.8GWh.
The lithium-ion battery industry has been around for 30 years since its inception in the early 1990s. From the beginning, it was monopolized by Japan to Japan and South Korea for hegemony. Today, China, Japan and South Korea are three pillars. Looking at the current pattern of lithium battery industry, China, Japan and South Korea are competing for the hegemony. It will continue for a long time to come.
Ningde era 'landing'
At present, the global power battery market is long-term entrenched by five large Asian companies. Including the Ningde times, Japan's Matsushita, South Korea's Samsung, South Korea LG, Shenzhen BYD.
The Ningde era is located in an obscure unnamed suburb in the suburbs of Ningde. This third-tier city in southeastern China is unlikely to be at the forefront of the technological revolution, but the company born here is expected to surpass Tesla, Samsung and others. Old-style manufacturers.
While Tesla took away the layout of the newspaper in a high-profile manner, Chinese battery manufacturers did not noticeably make significant advances in battery technology.
According to the “2017 China Unicorn Enterprise Development Report” published on March 23, the Ningde Times ranked the sixth with a valuation of US$20 billion and became a super unicorn enterprise.
In addition to the Ningde era, Tianjin Lishen and BYD also followed closely. Under the government's active support policy, China’s battery companies are beginning to dominate the industry dominated by Japanese and Korean companies such as Panasonic for 30 years. leading.
As automakers increase investment in electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries will become key technologies for at least the next 10 years. Goldman Sachs estimates that by 2025, the market will reach US$40 billion. Leaded by China.
According to Goldman Sachs, in 2013, China surpassed South Korea to become the world's largest supplier of lithium batteries for electronic equipment.
A year later, as China's electric vehicle market took off, lead prices rose. In 2016, the Chinese market sold 507,000 electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles, an increase of 50% over the previous year.
According to research group Bernstein, although Panasonic is still the world’s largest supplier of electric vehicle batteries, China’s BYD and Ningde era are close behind.
Duncan Goodwin, head of global resource stocks at Barings, a fund manager, said: 'The Japanese invented this technology, the Koreans expanded their scale and put into production, and China will eventually dominate the market, because this is the ultimate direction of the market.'
According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance, if Chinese battery companies can achieve their goals, by 2020 they will be able to produce 121 GW of batteries.
In contrast, when Tesla reached full capacity in 2018, its target was 35 GW.
One unit of GWh will be enough to supply 100 kilometers for 40,000 electric vehicles.
The research and development department of the Ningde era has 1,000 employees. The company has more than 2,000 battery-related patents. Goldman Sachs analysts said last year that they expect the company to 'reach the global peers in terms of product quality'.
On March 15th, the Ningde Times (or “CATL”) was also awarded the “Boldness in Business Awards” 2017 by the Financial Times. As the world’s leading power battery system and energy storage system company, The company won the 'Most Reliable Emerging Market Company Award' for its courageous and innovative business aspirations. It has become the first award-winning lithium-ion battery company for new energy vehicles.
Battery Industry 'Ebb Tide'
The polarisation of the power battery industry has created technical barriers. First-timers have cost advantages and customer barriers, and have also formed the main moat of the industry. Therefore, in the field of power batteries, some latecomers have already announced their abandonment.
For example, Germany's Bosch, the world's largest auto parts manufacturer, announced that it will abandon self-powered battery cells and switch to outsourcing battery cells. In the future, it will provide a complete battery system through its own battery management system technology and system integration capabilities. .
Previously, Bosch invested approximately 400 million euros each year in an attempt to make breakthroughs in the field of electric mobility. Most of these were used for the research and development of battery technology. Last December, Bosch stated that it is considering investing 20 billion euros to make its battery production capacity at 2030. It reached 200GWh in a year to fight against competitors from Asia. Since last year, giants including Nissan and NEC have begun to withdraw from the lithium battery business.
'Batteries' greatest risk comes from the market, technology and resources. ' Zhongguancun Secretary-General of the New Battery Technology Innovation Alliance, Chairman of the Battery Hundred Persons Association Yu Qingxuan stated that in the future, the world will have no shortage of the best batteries, but it lacks core materials and Resources. With the motives in the raw material market hot, capital has become the key driver in the new round of competition. 'Bosch and other abandoned battery investment is very sensible.'
In recent years, it is not uncommon to hear about the lithium battery business. In addition to Bosch, in August last year, NEC Corporation decided to withdraw its lithium-ion battery business and sell its electrode-producing subsidiary NEC Energy De-vice to China’s private equity investment fund Sands. GSR Capital. This subsidiary is mainly manufacturing Nissan Pure Electric Vehicle's LEAF's onboard battery electrode with annual sales of approximately 15 billion yen.
In addition, Nissan and NEC’s joint venture Automotive Energy Supply (AESC) Division was also sold to Jinsha River Capital. AESC’s investment ratio was 51% for Nissan, and 49% for NEC and NEC Energy Device. At that time, Nissan would start from NEC acquires 49% of AESC shares and holds AESC in its entirety. It is then packaged and sold to Jinshajiang Capital.
AESC purchases batteries from NEC Energy Device to produce batteries with annual sales of approximately 30 billion yen. In 2016, AESC ranked first in the world with Panasonic, BYD, and LG Chem, with a shipment of 1,622 MWh. Therefore, AESC’s At the time of sale, it was regarded as another heavy bomb in the global power lithium battery industry after the old Sony cell phone business was withdrawn from Sony. The sale price was considered to be around 100 billion yen.
Regarding Bosch's withdrawal from the lithium battery business, Bosch stated that the current global power battery market is long-term entrenched by the five largest companies in Asia. Including the Ningde times, Japan’s Matsushita, South Korea’s Samsung, South Korea’s LG, and Shenzhen’s BYD. These have already achieved great climate, and Bosch has The production of battery cells will take a lot of market risk.
Secondly, at the cost level, 75% of the cost of a battery cell comes from lithium and other raw materials. After processing, packaging, transportation, and other expenses, the profit margin is very limited. Once the price war is set off by competitors, it is easy to lose everything.
According to Puritans, the top ten battery manufacturers have already occupied 70% of China's battery market. These battery manufacturers already have a complete layout of the four key materials. Dr. and NEC, including Mercedes-Benz, Daimler , Volkswagen, does not have the advantage of resources in the Chinese market, and the materials are all purchased from China. Therefore, there is no confidence in the cost level.
In addition, Bosch's abandonment from the perspective of investment is also very obvious. After careful consideration by Bosch, it believes that by 2030, the global power battery capacity will reach 1000GkWh. If Bosch wants to reach a market share of 20%, it needs at least Investing 20 billion Euros to purchase equipment for battery cell production, testing, recycling, etc. This huge investment puts pressure on any component company. Once a revolutionary innovation in technology occurs, the upfront investment is likely to become a sunk cost. .
Currently, the energy density of lithium batteries based on liquid electrolytes is still insufficient to meet the demand for electric vehicles. While Bosch plans to 'turn overboard', it will invest in solid-state batteries and next-generation lithium battery technology, but it is expected to mature until 2025. In Puritanism, unless there is a clear overturn in the material, lithium batteries will remain the mainstream power battery for at least the next three to five years. Other technological innovations and substitutions still have a long way to go.
Industry will welcome deep shuffle
Although Chinese companies have already occupied most of the market in the field of power batteries, they still rely heavily on government subsidies. Now, with the fall of government subsidies, this situation will likely change.
Japan, South Korea and other battery manufacturers have factories in China and are awaiting policy bans. Currently, Panasonic has established a factory in Dalian and Suzhou, China. The Dalian plant produces square batteries. The first phase of the project has been put into production. The Suzhou factory produces 18650 cylinders. Battery. Samsung has a factory in Xi'an. Samsung SDI battery plant will be put into production in Xi'an. Its production line will annually produce 40,000 high-performance automotive power (pure electric EV standard) batteries. In addition, LG's factory in Nanjing can provide over 55 10,000 battery products, supporting about 180,000 new energy vehicles.
In fact, currently many Japanese plug-in hybrid vehicles are equipped with Japanese and Korean batteries, which is not very good for Chinese battery companies. On the other hand, Chinese power batteries have not been very successful so far. International case.
The Ningde era plans to build a factory in Europe this year, but the current address has not yet been selected. From the public's 'super' orders, its attitude toward Chinese batteries is still - China exclusive. Ningde era 'going out' or rely on The growth of the "elegant" - BMW Group, the latter through the introduction of technical standards, to help Ningde era quickly become China's leading power battery supplier.
Of course, Bosch's detachment of the battery business does not mean that this market will be abandoned. It will continue to increase its R&D efforts in terms of integration of battery systems. In the future, Bosch will focus on three projects: system integration, energy efficiency, and standardization. Continuous efforts. And this is exactly what many battery manufacturers currently do not have. In addition, the R&D of next-generation batteries will also make Chinese companies feel the pressure of the future.
In the industry's view, the refinement of the division of labor will become the future direction of development in the field of batteries. In 2019 China will begin to implement the new energy vehicle integration policy, which will be the turning point for electric vehicles to truly become popular.
Under the two-wheel drive of 'Markets and Policies', the implementation of the double-integration policy, the ban on the sale of fuel trucks on the agenda, the continuous improvement of infrastructure such as charging piles and power resource allocation, and the increase in power battery energy density and cost reduction, energy storage The industry ushered in a long period of time... In this context, Qingchai believes that the market competitiveness of the battery industry chain will be greatly improved.
'The gap between China and Japan and South Korea in terms of technology routes is gradually narrowing. 'In the view of Puritanism, China's battery companies are likely to surpass Samsung, LG and Panasonic in the future. On the one hand, Chinese battery companies will include mergers and acquisitions through various means. , Or obtain relevant technologies from the market. On the other hand, China, which has the largest battery market in the world, is likely to formulate standards and rules through its own voice after the technology matures.
In the context of accelerating production expansion of leading power battery companies and increasing competition, the new energy industry for lithium batteries will usher in a new round of deep reshuffle.
