In the early morning of March 23, US President Trump signed a memorandum, announcing that it will take measures to impose tariffs on Chinese products. The scale of Chinese commodities involved in taxation may reach 60 billion US dollars.
In the meantime, on the morning of March 23, the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China announced the countermeasures and announced that it has implemented a suspension of concessions on US$3 billion U.S. exports to China, and plans to import from the United States. Some products have imposed tariffs to balance the losses caused by the US's levy of tariffs on Chinese interests... Since then, the Sino-U.S. trade disputes have only officially come to the stage. Some analysts believe that the Sino-U.S. trade friction has It may be the trigger for the 'Sino-US trade war'. If the world's largest economies have a full-scale economic confrontation, the world will be affected.
According to information recently provided by the U.S. Trade Representative Office (USTR), the United States will impose a 25% tariff on certain Chinese products. These products include: 1,300 tax products such as aviation products, modern railways, new energy vehicles and high-tech products. , belongs to more than 100 categories, at the same time, the United States will also step up restrictions on Chinese companies' investment in U.S. companies and mergers and acquisitions.
The list of suspension concessions issued by the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China against the U.S. 232 measures. The list tentatively contains seven categories and 128 tax products, involving approximately US$ 3 billion in U.S. exports to China. The first part consists of a total of 120 taxes. Involving US exports of 9.7 billion U.S. dollars to China, including fresh fruit, dried fruit and nut products, wine, modified ethanol, American ginseng, seamless steel pipes, etc., with a 15% tariff increase. The second part totals 8 taxes. Involving US exports to China of 1.992 billion U.S. dollars, including pork and products, recycled aluminum, etc., to impose a 25% tariff.
The goods and industries involved in the tariff increase between China and the US are relatively extensive. Among them, the U.S. trade action against China mainly includes aviation, railways, medicine, and information technology, among which the automobile industry has explicitly involved new energy sources. Car. So what impact will this have on China's new energy auto industry? If the 'China-US trade war' really starts, what impact will it have on the auto market in China and the United States?
The United States has become China's largest exporter of new energy vehicles
According to statistics, in 2017, China exported 214 pure electric passenger cars to the United States with sales of 1.65 million U.S. dollars, and 1,042 electric hybrid passenger cars exported to the United States with sales of 61.15 million U.S. dollars. The country with the largest number and amount of new energy vehicle exporting countries.
At present, China's new energy vehicle companies occupy an important position in the US market is BYD, which occupies more than 80% of the US pure electric bus market share. From 2013 to date, BYD's pure electric cleaning bus footprint has spread all over the United States over 30 states. In addition, BYD’s Lancaster plant in the United States has also started production in May 2013. The third phase was completed and put into full operation last year. The annual production capacity reached 1,500 vehicles, creating thousands of jobs for the local people. It is the first in the United States. China's wholly-owned bus factory is also the largest pure electric bus factory in North America. In addition, BYD's market share in the US energy storage power station has also reached 50%.
JAC Motor also publicly signed a contract to start an electric vehicle export program in 2013. 2000 JAC New Energy Vehicles took the country for the first time and entered the US market. Although the number of new energy vehicles produced by JAC is not very high in the US market, For JAC, being able to enter the US market and maintain a certain amount of sales, it is clearly advantageous for the JAC brand.
In addition, new energy vehicles produced by Chinese brands such as Ankai Bus and Zhidou Automobile also have a certain sense of presence in the United States. Including Weilai Automobile, Chuanqi Automobile, and car and home car companies, etc., within the established development plan. , There are also plans to enter the US market.
This trade friction has little impact on China's new energy car companies
Obviously, in this Sino-U.S. trade friction, the United States has already explicitly imposed tariffs on Chinese new energy vehicles. For BYD, which has an 80% market share of pure electric buses and has built factories in the United States, it will It will be more passive. Originally in the United States to build a factory production, the cost will be higher than in the country. At the same time, according to the local laws and regulations in the United States, BYD will pay a higher cost in the negative aspect of production supervision. Therefore, for BYD, it is taxed. The increase will further reduce its profits. However, considering that BYD's 'big head' is still the domestic market, for BYD, such an impact should be affordable. On the other hand, the US pure electric bus market has also formed a BYD is dependent, and BYD has also built factories in the United States, creating more jobs. It is impossible for the United States not to consider these factors when it is 'starting' with BYD.
For a new energy vehicle company such as JAC, which has a certain amount of sales in the US market, its market share is not high. Even if its new energy vehicles stop being exported to the United States, it is only a small part of the overall sales volume. (Chinese market for these The car companies are still the most important thing.) The impact on the overall brand profit is not great.
However, for car companies that plan to enter the U.S. market in the near future, such as Weilai Automobile, Guangzhou Automobile Chuanqi, Car and Home, Karma Automotive (formerly known as Fisker Motors, was acquired by China Wanxiang Group after bankruptcy in 2014, (Moreno Valley has set up factories to focus on new energy vehicles), Atieva (a new energy vehicle company formed by Beibei Automobile and Mercedes-Benz, a modern cooperation, and Beiqi holds a 25% stake), etc. Taxation plans for cars clearly disrupted their own future development plans, with slightly greater impact.
In terms of lithium batteries, after the Sino-U.S. announcement of this trade strategy, the lithium battery sector in the domestic A-share market experienced a general decline, but considering that the current production range of the new energy vehicle power battery manufacturing industry is almost entirely in the country. The supply of domestic new energy vehicles is therefore affected by this trade friction, and the occurrence of minor market fluctuations is also normal, with little actual impact.
China has greater dominance in the automotive market
This time, the United States is targeting this trade friction initiated by China. It is clear that China is in a passive position. At present, the United States is only targeting the automotive industry in the area of new energy vehicles with a relatively small amount of money. It has little impact on China's new energy vehicle market, but if China launched a counterattack against traditional fuel vehicles, so most American auto groups will be under greater pressure.
According to statistics, in 2017, only General Motors, vehicles sold in joint-venture or import status on the Chinese market, had a total sales volume of 4 million vehicles, and Ford Motor sales in China reached 1.2 million in 2017. In the department of cars, the number of cars sold by the United States in China is close to 5.5 million vehicles a year, and the United States has a trade surplus of 8.9 billion U.S. dollars in the Sino-U.S. auto trade.
Summarizing the trade friction between China and the United States has a certain negative impact on the economy of each industry in both countries, but judging from the current situation, the impact on China’s auto industry is still relatively limited. However, if the two countries Without addressing subsequent trade issues and continuing to expand the scope of the 'trade war', it is inevitable that the automobile sector will be burned by 'war', which will have great impact on major auto makers and consumers in the United States and China. Injury has a huge impact on the rising auto trade on both sides.
At present, China and the United States are still coordinating and negotiating to avoid genuine 'trade wars'. After all, the 'trade war' is not a solution to the current problems, but will only be a trigger for more trouble. This point China and the United States must be very clear in their hearts.