Affected by the recent fluctuations in international oil prices and plastics futures prices, the price fluctuations of domestic chemicals futures are centered on the upward movement. At the same time, the price of propylene monomer is relatively strong. In addition, the Asian refineries are concentrated in the maintenance season in March and April, and polypropylene supply is expected. The cost support will increase, and it will be in a state of supply and demand.
Polypropylene raw materials mainly include naphtha, coal and purchased methanol. Naphtha to olefins accounts for a major part of domestic production capacity, over 80%. Outsourcing of methanol accounts for a relatively small proportion, and coal-to-olefin production capacity expansion trend remains. The price of crude oil stabilized and rebounded, and the price of coal rebounded. Due to the increase in the price of polypropylene, the profits of production enterprises are considerable, and the production power is also high.
Since 2015, the domestic polypropylene capacity has cumulatively increased by nearly 6.5 million tons. With the increase in production capacity, the diversification trend of polypropylene raw material sources has become increasingly apparent.
It is understood that coal-to-olefins have high energy consumption and high pollution. Today, with increasingly stringent environmental protection regulations, the development of coal-to-olefins is difficult. In 2018, whether the coal-to-olefins project can be put into production according to plan is still unknown. The high cost of waste treatment The production and development of coal-based polypropylene units will be limited.
Compared with the development of coal-based polypropylene, the production capacity of propylene monomer for PDH expansion is rapid. The main reason is that the propane dehydrogenation unit has a high yield, single product, mature technology and relatively low environmental protection costs, and has been favored by the market.
In addition, the profit of oil-produced polypropylene has always been relatively satisfactory. The profit for January to August 2017 was 1656 yuan/ton. PDH companies benefited mainly from low propane prices, outstanding production cost advantages, and their profitability remained at a relatively high level. The average profit for January to August 2017 was 1,763 yuan/ton. From the beginning of 2017 to date, the profit of coal-based polypropylene averaged 597 yuan/ton.
In recent years, the production capacity of polypropylene in China has been continuously improved, and the self-sufficiency rate has also been improved. In 2016, the polypropylene production reached 17.678 million tons, and the apparent consumption was 204.68 million tons. In 2017, the new polypropylene production capacity in China was 1.5 million tons. The total output of polypropylene in China was 21.55 million tons, including 9.29 million tons of oil, 5.95 million tons of PDH, and 6.08 million tons of MTO/MTP. In 2017, the domestic polypropylene self-sufficiency rate increased slightly.
It is worth noting that the export volume of polypropylene in China is less than 1% of apparent consumption. Neglecting minimal export volume, the continuously decreasing import volume is the gap of polypropylene. In 2016, this gap was 2.58 million tons. According to the apparent consumption The estimated growth rate is 8%. The capacity gap of polypropylene from 2017 to 2018 is about 2.8 million tons.
In the future, the environmental issues in the domestic polypropylene industry, the cost conversion rate of end products, and macroeconomic operating conditions will have a substantial impact on the production of new installations.
The reporter was informed that in recent years, although the scale of polypropylene plants in China has been continuously improving, it is still less than the international average. From the perspective of the scale of production facilities, there are many types of small-scale production facilities, and there are few facilities with large production capacity; More, less equipment for the production of special materials.
China's polypropylene is mainly used to produce woven products, film products, injection molding products, textile products, etc. In the next few years, the demand for polypropylene in various fields will continue to increase, and the consumption structure will gradually change. Currently, the domestic polypropylene demand structure The first three are drawing, injection molding, film materials. Among them, the proportion of plastic woven downstream of polypropylene is large, and its development speed has a direct impact on the sales volume of polypropylene.
Experts caution that polypropylene manufacturers must take a serious view of changes in the downstream market. First, they must seize market opportunities and entry points from a low-efficiency space. Second, they must improve product competitiveness as a driving force to achieve product differentiation and specialization. The third is to adapt to environmental protection requirements and comply with the green energy conservation trend. The fourth is to rely on the integration of upstream and downstream of the entire industrial chain, give full play to the main advantages of chemical industry innovation, and promote the healthy development of the industry.
Close to the market to seize opportunities
For market analysis and insights, it is the biggest advantage and competitiveness of refining companies in market-oriented reforms. From the past one-way, what markets will accept what they have produced, and to the present market-based changes, not only Only the model, but also the concept and thinking.
For the judgment of the market, it is necessary to look at the immediate need to face the long-term, to adjust the production organization from the endogenous mechanism, to more flexible and rapid, adapt to the rapidly changing market demands, fundamentally make production close to the market, feel the market, and maintain At the same time as its own core competitive advantage, the implementation of product differentiation, specialization strategy.
The traditional oil refining and chemical industry is facing enormous challenges, but confidence in facing the market should not change, and the insistence on deepening reforms needs to continue.