Ethylene is a basic raw material for the petrochemical industry and is known as the “mother of petrochemicals”. It is also an important indicator of the development level of a country's petrochemical industry. Ethylene products are mainly used to produce downstream derivatives of polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and ethylene oxide. Alkane / ethylene glycol, styrene, vinyl acetate and other chemical products.
According to the forecast of IHS in 2017, the global demand for ethylene derivatives will increase by 5 to 5.5 million tons per year between 2020 and 2030, which means that the total ethylene production capacity will also need to increase by 50 million tons. Of these, the United States will increase another 10 to 12 million tons. Capacity, the rest of the region will build the remaining 40 million tons / year of production capacity. Asia's populous country with large capacity for ethylene will appear in full swing, especially in China, India, Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines.
In recent years, with the rapid development of the national economy, the domestic ethylene industry has developed rapidly and has now become the second largest ethylene producer in the world after the United States. According to the statistics of Chemical Industry Online (www.chemsino.com), China's ethylene in 2017 The production capacity reached about 24.3 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4%; the output reached 18.22 million tons, an increase of 2.4% year-on-year; the annual ethylene imports amounted to 2.16 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 30%. With the market for polyethylene, ethylene glycol As demand for downstream products continues to increase, China’s demand for ethylene has steadily increased. In 2017, the apparent ethylene consumption was approximately 20.37 million tons, an increase of 4.8% year-on-year. The ethylene equivalent consumption was approximately 39 million tons, and the equivalent gap reached 20 million. Ton, the downstream dependence of ethylene on imports is still serious.
In the next few years, China will usher in an outbreak of the new ethylene plant on the oil route. According to incomplete statistics, by the end of 2019, more than 8 million tons of ethylene production capacity will be put into production in China, including the production capacity of the oil route and coal (methanol) route. About half of them are worth mentioning. It is worth mentioning that in 2017, several sets of ethane (light hydrocarbon) crackers were started and planned for construction in China. The cracking capacity of ethane (light hydrocarbons) under construction and planned production reached 15 million tons. If these devices can be put into operation on schedule, the shortage of domestic ethylene supplies will be greatly improved by then.
After several years of development, the route of domestic production of ethylene has undergone major changes. In 2010, the proportion of steam cracking routes was as high as 97%, and in 2017 it decreased to 81%. The proportion of ethylene produced via coal/methanol was increased by 2010. 2% increase to 19% in 2017.
In 2017, LLDPE accounted for 27% of total consumption in domestic consumption structure of ethylene, HDPE accounted for about 26%, LDPE accounted for about 11%, ethylene glycol accounted for about 11%, ethylene oxide accounted for about 8%, styrene about It accounted for 8%, of which ethylene glycol, LDPE and HDPE had the lowest self-sufficiency rates, which were 42%, 48% and 49%, respectively. The contradiction between supply and demand was outstanding.
Overall, at present, China's ethylene industry is still at a stage of development. The scale of the equipment is generally small, and it is at a disadvantage in cost compared with foreign large-scale ethane crackers. In addition, the downstream high-end products still rely on imports, and the market competitiveness needs to be improved. With the advancement of the construction of the seven major petrochemical bases in China, many coal (methyl alcohol) olefins production units will be put into operation, especially the construction of a large number of ethane (light hydrocarbon) crackers. The ethylene industry will usher in explosive growth, and import dependence will also be completely reversed. .