According to the report of Bloomberg News on March 27, informed sources revealed that the Trump administration is considering cracking down on China’s investment in technology. The US side believes these technologies are sensitive and will adopt laws designed for national emergencies.
Informed sources said that U.S. Treasury officials are developing a plan to determine which technology areas Chinese companies will be prohibited from investing in, such as semiconductors and 5G communications.
The report said that investment restrictions will be the latest step in Trump's plan to punish China, and the United States believes that China has violated its intellectual property rights.
2. If the trade friction between China and the United States deteriorates, how can China's semiconductor industry behave?
In the morning on March 23, US President Trump signed a memorandum, announcing that it will take measures to impose tariffs on Chinese products, limit Chinese investment, and apply relevant issues to the WTO dispute settlement mechanism. The US government plans to scale up Up to 60 billion U.S. dollars of Chinese imports are subject to a 25% tariff. These include 1300 product categories such as modern railways, new energy vehicles, and high technology, which will be affected by tariffs.
Then, if this trade friction is not a matter of course, what will be the impact on the semiconductor industry?
Nearly 200 billion U.S. dollars in trade deficit and the increasingly heavy Chinese market in U.S. semiconductor companies
Although the Sino-U.S. trade war has been in rapid swing, it seems that there is a turning point today. Reuters and other foreign media disclosed today that China and the United States are holding consultations. During the negotiations, senior Trump administration officials demanded that China lower the tariffs on imported cars and allow foreign investors to hold The financial services company holds a majority stake and buys more semiconductor products produced in the United States.
According to reports, China is willing to increase US semiconductor imports. However, it is not known how US chips will replace South Korean and Taiwan chips. There are few overlapping parts between US chips and Taiwan-Korea chips. In terms of amount, Reuters calculated based on China Customs data. It was concluded that last year the United States accounted for only 1% of China's total semiconductor imports.
Some analysts believe that the Sino-U.S. trade friction is aimed at "Made in China 2025" and aims to limit China's high-tech and high-value-added fields. As a strategic industry that affects the nation's overall competitiveness, the level of integrated circuit technology and industry has been It has become an important indicator of a country’s industrial competitiveness and comprehensive national strength. The IC industry in this trade dispute has also attracted much attention. However, since 2013, the annual import volume of China’s integrated circuits has reached more than US$200 billion, and the 2016 China crude oil The import amount was US$115.308 billion. More importantly, the import amount in 2017 increased by a large margin of 14.6% year-on-year, and the overall deficit was close to US$200 billion.
In terms of demand, the size of the domestic integrated circuit market in 2017 is estimated to be 1,382.92 billion yuan, and the growth rate of the scale will remain at double digits over the year. Supply is viewed as a serious shortage of self-sufficiency in the domestic semiconductor industry, especially in high-end equipment, materials, storage and other fields. The rate is extremely low. According to SEMI data, China's chip self-sufficiency rate is expected to be only 27% in 2017. China's IC industry's external dependence remains strong. The supply and demand gap continues, and the industry's import-oriented situation will remain.
This analyst believes that there is less impact on the continued import-oriented domestic semiconductor industry.
Looking at the development of U.S. semiconductor companies in China, the following are some of the major U.S. semiconductor companies in China that have a high percentage of U.S. revenue. In addition, Texas Instruments (TI) exceeds 40%, Xilinx (Xilinx). ), Intel (Intel) and other large factories rely on the Chinese market more than 20%.
It is worth noting that the semiconductor market in China and the rest of the world is actually becoming more and more important in the Chinese market. It is also basically doing localization in China, such as Qualcomm, TI, etc. Obviously. For example, when Trump visited China at the end of 2017, Qualcomm signed a memorandum of understanding with Xiaomi, Oppo and vivo. The three companies will purchase chips of no less than US$12 billion from Qualcomm in the next three years.
It can be said that Sino-U.S. trade and semiconductor play a very important role in it. Although the United States accounts for a small amount of Chinese semiconductor imports, China is highly dependent on importing semiconductor chip products and related equipment from the United States. Similarly, many semiconductor companies in the US The dependence on the Chinese market has also been too large to get out.
The following is an example of the two areas, the situation between China and the United States.
Comparison of smart phone chips in China and the United States
A smart phone contains a variety of chips, such as baseband, application processing, RF front-end, wireless communication, power management, memory, touch screen and fingerprint identification chips. Currently, U.S. manufacturers are mainly in baseband, application processors, and radio frequency. The front-end and power management chips have great advantages. The 95% market for RF chips is occupied by European and American manufacturers, and the localization process in China is slow. Basebands and application processing chips are on the mainland and are being pursued by manufacturers. Currently, there are separate high-end and low-end chip markets. Hass and Spreadtrum’s two major SoC design houses accounted for 5% and 7% market share of chip shipments. On the touchscreen and fingerprint recognition chips, mainland manufacturers have basically achieved domestic substitution.
Memory chip comparison between the United States and the United States
In many other areas of semiconductors, the mainland self-sufficiency rate is still relatively low, such as storage (mainstream memory DRAM and NAND Flash mainland self-sufficiency ratio is currently about 0%), semiconductor equipment (sole 2016 self-sufficiency rate is 11.5%) and some semiconductor material fields. (Self-adjustment rate in the field of photoresists is 0%) etc. Once the self-sufficiency rate is too low, and foreign suppliers are too concentrated, it will easily cause the corresponding downstream manufacturers in China to get caught in the neck, resulting in the government's countermeasures being limited by multiple factors.
As the third DRAM, NAND Flash’s fourth-largest giant Micron’s reliance on the Chinese market is increasing. In 2009, China’s mainland surpassed the United States as Micron’s largest source of revenue, and since then mainland China’s share has continued to grow. Revenue in mainland China reached 10.4 billion U.S. dollars, a growth rate of 96%, accounting for 50% of Micron's total revenue.
At present, there are more restrictions on the taxation of American companies' memory products. In the case that there is no substantial production capacity released on the mainland, the two memories are expected to maintain the supply shortage. Take DRAM as an example, if it is on the DRAM products of Micron. Taxes, on the one hand, may exacerbate the shortage of storage supply on the mainland and harm the interests of China's downstream end-use manufacturers. On the other hand, it may increase the monopoly of Samsung and SK Hynix in the Chinese DRAM market, which is not conducive to the Chinese semiconductor industry in the long run. The benign development.
China's storage started late, and there are many technical backwardness. Although we are currently trying our best to catch up with the strong support of the state and the capital, and we have also seen the establishment of three major bases for mainland storage, it takes more time to achieve real storage and domestic substitution. And more energy.
What aspects of China's semiconductor industry were addressed in the 301 survey?
In the first chapter, the 301 survey focused on the process of the introduction, absorption, and re-innovation of foreign intellectual property and technology in China. One important example of this is the integrated circuit, and mentioned many areas in China's integrated circuits. Industrial policies such as the '12th Five-year Development Plan for the Integrated Circuit Industry', 'the Outline for the Development of the National Integrated Circuit Industry', etc.
Secondly, the second chapter of the 301 investigation report, 'China's Unfair Technology Transfer System to US Companies in China', quoted the US Department of Commerce and the Department of Homeland Security's investigation report on the US integrated circuit industry, saying '25 US ICs. The company stated that they had to form joint ventures with Chinese entities to develop the Chinese market and transfer intellectual property rights. In 2017, the total sales of these companies exceeded 25 billion US dollars.'
Third, chapter 301 of the “Investment Outward” section of the 301 survey report lists China’s “going out” strategy. It has highlighted the overseas acquisitions and seas strategy in the integrated circuit sector supported by a number of national policies. It also focused on the analysis of Beijing, Tsinghua University (Ziguang Group), and participated in several acquisitions, such as Micron, Western Digital, etc. Meanwhile, in the report, this chapter proposed that the emergence of 'national support funds and investment companies' is the Chinese financial industry. An important new feature', and the national integrated circuit industry fund as a typical case. Finally, the report listed several Chinese investments in U.S. integrated circuits, such as the acquisition of iML by Chichuang North, the purchase of Mattson by U.S. Capital, and the acquisition of ISSI by Zhuang Guotou. Case and so on.
Chen Ping, chief analyst of Haitong Securities pointed out that the United States is mainly focused on China's strategic emerging industries represented by the semiconductor industry can be summarized as:
1. Complete the introduction, absorption and re-creation of foreign intellectual property and technology through government-encouraged incentive policies; 2. Take market entry conditions as a challenge; require foreign-invested enterprises to transfer intellectual property rights; 3. Under the support of state-led industrial funds Cross-border acquisitions.
These accusations are obviously irrational. Chen Ping stressed that the Sino-US trade friction has made it difficult for the external environment of China's semiconductor industry to deteriorate further, and highlights the importance of establishing a complete independent industrial chain.
If trade frictions deteriorate, how can China counter it?
Analysts pointed out that if the trade war intensifies, both parties will inevitably take further sanctions and countermeasures. From the aspect of countermeasures, on the one hand, China can strengthen its taxation quota and increase the scope of taxation. In the semiconductor field, Domestic products with alternative capabilities such as NOR, mid-to-low-end chips, etc., may cancel tax cuts or additional tax increases, thereby strengthening the price competitiveness of domestic products in the market.
In addition to tax countermeasures, China’s biggest advantage lies in its market advantages. It can adopt various means. For example, in response to the United States’ M&A restriction policy on China, the Ministry of Commerce of China can reasonably reject the mergers and acquisitions of some US-owned companies, especially some or will. After the completion of a new monopoly, such as the acquisition of NXP by Qualcomm.
In addition, it can also increase the penalties for the investigation and punishment of monopolistic enterprises, such as Qualcomm, Intel and other US-funded enterprises. If you take the opportunity to request the merger party to provide considerable compensation and preferential measures, to a certain extent, it will benefit the domestic related industries. development of.
It is worth noting that currently in the field of semiconductors, there is still a large gap between China and the mainland to achieve domestic substitution. It is difficult to counterattack through the tax rate policy. Trade friction is not a long-term behavior in any case. In terms of long-term development, only more attention is paid to self-development. Accumulation of industry, increase the support of policies and capital, improve internal strength to compete in a favorable position, counterattack from the inside out.
3. The Sino-American trade war affects the global economy What do Taiwanese companies think?
According to a comprehensive report by Micronet, Sino-US trade war broke out and spread to the global economy. The 2018 Smart City Fair was opened on March 27th. Chairman of the Computer Association of Taipei City, Mr. Tong Zixian, chairman of Heshuo, stressed that he opposed protectionism because of protectionism. It will only bring obstacles to the development of the industry and economic recession.
In response to the US-China trade war, Inventec’s general manager Wu Yongcai also stated that if the customs wars are launched, there will be impacts. However, the company has server factories in Mexico and the Czech Republic, which can produce some laptops, and Taiwan also has pen-power plants. Each year shipments are about 1 million units. If this happens, the Czech Republic, Mexico factory can do so, so that the impact of the product is not too much.
Tong Zixian pointed out that Heshuo has factories in Mexico and the Czech Republic, which helps resolve the impact of the trade war between China and the United States. At the same time, there is a maintenance line in the United States that can accommodate thousands of people. It can be changed to a production line at any time to meet the needs of six months to one year. Short-term order requirements.
'The trade war made everyone laugh, but management's 'urgent' and 'important' are different things. The real threat will not come from the current 'emergency,' but it is an important evolution that cannot be seen at all. The real threat is not immediate The threat, but unwittingly evolved. 'Feng Zixian emphasized, 'Everyone is talking about the current phenomenon. In fact, many component suppliers in China have risen. This is a threat. There was no mainland manufacturer in the mobile phone supply chain ten years ago. , But now the mainland directly cuts into the smartphone component supply chain, such as glass, and if there are more threats in the future, it should be closely watched.
In terms of customer performance, Wu Yongcai disclosed that he had returned from the United States a few days ago. At that time, he asked the customer about the issue of tariff warfare between China and the United States. The customer's performance was more intense than Inventec and the pressure was even greater. He believes that the US President Trump interacts with mainland China. There is no benefit for both parties. Inventec through triangular trade, orders from Taiwan, mainland shipments, trade wars between China and the United States, many industries in Taiwan will suffer. For example, smartphones, laptops and other products, many suppliers cannot follow. In the United States, only part of the components can be produced through partitioning in countries that do not have tariff barriers, and then shipped to the United States for assembly. The issue of tariffs on certain parts and components can be solved. In order to solve all component problems, Inventec has no means.
TSMC's three arrows have minimal impact
TSMC has revealed that it is optimistic about automotive electronics, high-speed computing and the Internet of Things at the beginning of the year. Good news came through the spring. Virtual currency, AI boom is booming. External investment film, Global IDM plants are rushing to invest in the development of the Internet of Things, and the three arrows of Taiwan's stock market are glowing. The trade war between China and the United States has little impact. In 2018, revenue growth of 10% to 15% can be achieved. The growth value is better than global value. which performed.
Zhang Zhongmou pointed out at the beginning of this year that the continuous improvement in the three major areas of high-speed computing, the Internet of Things, and automotive electronics will continue to drive the continued growth of TSMC's operating performance this year. The high-speed computing business will gradually increase the proportion of TSMC’s revenue, and it is optimistic about the future of high-speed computing. Applications such as artificial intelligence and GPUs are more widely used, and IoT applications are gradually maturing. More customers will be put into mass production this year.
The global mad virtual currency and AI with Wanda, TSMC's high-speed computing operations are stronger than expected. The legal person expects that high-speed computing revenue will increase by 80% this year, and the revenue share will increase from 20% in 2017 to 25% in 2018. The automotive electronics segment, TSMC and Advanced subsidiaries of the company have successively obtained orders for automotive electronics from the world's largest IDM plants. The world’s advanced advanced loading of 8 wafers due to orders from Infineon and NXP is full, while TSMC’s 28-nm technology is mature, with better yield and performance than its peers. Global outsourcing of IDM plants became a trend. TSMC became the biggest winner.
In addition, in response to the recent trade war between China and the US, Taiwan Semiconductor’s Terrorist Zhongjian pointed out that currently the United States is engaged in wafer foundry mainly for Global Foundries. Since its FinFET technology cannot break through, it will use FD-SOI instead, mainly for automotive applications. In mature markets such as networking, for FinFETs under 14, 16 nanometers, TSMC has an absolute leading position. As for Intel's main production of its own CPU in advanced processes, its foundry business has extremely low profitability, and Intel has no advantage in the low-power mobile phone AP market. , Yield, patents, parameter databases are all less than TSMC.
Hong Wei Shi Zhenrong: Mastering new opportunities for change
According to Shi Zhenrong, founder of Acer, everyone will find a new model for reciprocity. You can wait and see how this changes. Taiwan can continue to increase its own core competencies and keep abreast of new opportunities that are constantly changing.
Regarding Taiwan’s response, Shi Zhenrong said that it is necessary to pay close attention, increase its own core competencies, and continue to make the greatest contribution to its partners. This is the role we should play. The outside world is constantly changing and changes may occur. Dilemma or opportunity, can make good use of Taiwan's flexibility, speed, entrepreneurship, etc., to grasp new opportunities for change.
4. China has become a hot spot for investment by high-tech companies. The US 301 investigation allegations are not justified;
On the afternoon of March 22, US local time, Trump formally announced that based on the results of the '301 investigation', it will impose large-scale tariffs on goods exported from China and restrict Chinese companies from investing in the United States. Trump agrees before signing The media said that the scale of Chinese goods involved in taxation could reach 60 billion US dollars.
Evidence of the U.S. 301 investigation in China is obviously insufficient. In fact, China’s protection of intellectual property continues to increase. China has abundant intellectual resources and a complex market structure. With the recent years, multinational companies have accelerated the pace of setting up R&D institutions in China. China has become an important link in the global technology invention creation value chain.
Insufficient evidence from U.S. China 301 investigation
U.S. 301 investigations in China lacked direct evidence. First, in terms of quantity, only less than 20% of the testimonies provided by the U.S.-China Trade Commission provide opinions on technology transfer in China, which means that more than 80% of the members are majority members. There is no objection to this type of issue.
Second, on the issue of equity, China’s foreign direct investment has changed from a Sino-foreign joint venture to a wholly foreign-owned one. The U.S.-China Trade Committee’s report states that about 75% of U.S. companies can operate in China with 100% equity. It is not subject to joint venture and equity restrictions.
Again, there is currently no U.S. domestic industry filing application and evidence to prove the allegations. On October 9, 2017, the United States did not focus too much on mandatory technology transfer at the public U.S. 301 investigation hearing.
According to the report of the member companies of the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products, the contents of the 301 investigation allegedly did not conform to the actual situation. The joint venture of the company and the technology transfer were freely negotiated and initiated after the equal negotiation, which was purely a market activity. And its subordinate departments did not participate in, and did not engage in any form of intervention. In addition, Chinese companies have full autonomy in the investment and acquisition options, and there is no promotion or promotion of the Chinese government during the investment acquisition process. Chinese companies have no possibility and means to force US companies to transfer assets and technology to Chinese companies.
On the contrary, the United States’ Export Administration Act imposes very strict regulations on the transfer and export of technology. The U.S. Foreign Investment Commission also has a number of U.S. rules under the “Foreign Investment and National Security Law” and the “Foreigner Mergers, Acquisitions, and Takeovers Regulations.” A large discretionary power decides whether or not to approve a foreigner’s investment in M&A by U.S. companies. In fact, the normal market-based commercial trade and investment behavior of Chinese and U.S. companies is often hampered by the U.S. government.
China has become a hot spot for high-tech companies to compete for investment
China’s intellectual property protection has been continuously strengthened and a relatively complete legal system for intellectual property protection has been established. China has been actively developing cooperation with the United States in the protection of intellectual property rights. China and the United States held three important negotiations on intellectual property issues and signed a memorandum. China has adopted many U.S. Patent and Trademark Bureau professionals' advice when it comes to amending the intellectual property legal system; China's State Intellectual Property Office and the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office signed the Sino-U.S. data exchange agreement in 2012 on patent searches and public housing for both parties. Intellectual property information provides new ways.
In addition, the cooperation between Chinese and US companies in the area of intellectual property rights has also continued to expand. In 2016, between Huawei and Apple, in January 2018, Google and Tencent reached a patent cross-licensing agreement. The legal system of intellectual property protection On the other hand, China has established a relatively complete legal system including the Patent Law, the Trademark Law, the Copyright Law, the Technology Contract Law, and the Science and Technology Achievements Conversion Law, and continues to improve. The intellectual property courts in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou have been established one after another. The number of intellectual property-related lawsuits has continued to increase, and from the individual cases announced in Guangdong Province, the proportion of Chinese and foreign parties winning similar lawsuits is similar. In addition, China’s patent applications for inventions have leapt to the top in the world. Payment of intellectual property royalties has become an important part of China's service trade deficit, reaching US$28.6 billion in 2017, which is 20% higher than 2016.
As China’s protection of intellectual property continues to increase, it has abundant intellectual resources and a complex market structure. In recent years, multinational corporations have accelerated the pace of setting up R&D institutions in China. China has become an important link in the creation of global technology inventions in the value chain. General Electric proposed 'In China, for China and for the World' (in China, China, and the world) as the vision and positioning of GE China.
U.S. companies have used China's indigenous resources, markets, and platforms to achieve more than expected growth in China through the spontaneous transfer of technology. For example, U.S. cars have actively transferred technology after entering China, and have achieved significant market share in a relatively short period of time. With the improvement of China's innovation environment and improvement of innovation levels, the way in which transnational corporations maintain their technological competitiveness has changed, and US companies have actively chosen to increase their R&D investment and technology transfer in China's innovative regions. Apple has now set up 2 in China. A research and development center, whose CEO announced that it will set up two more R&D centers in China. If it restricts the international circulation of technical knowledge, it will actually limit the innovation of American information technology companies.
Individual cases meet international practice
Individual cases requiring technology transfer conformed to international practice. According to the requirements of the “second supplier” in the “Anti-Monopoly Law” of China, technologies related to the products and services related to the development of the national economy are related to the formation of market monopolies after the merger of enterprises and require technology. Transfer. For example, when U.S. Pfizer merged with Wyeth, U.S. Department of Commerce requested that the merged enterprise transfer the technology patent for pig vaccine to Chinese companies.
China requires that the provisions of the open source code conform to international practices. Many countries in the world, for the purpose of maintaining national cyber security, require companies to share the source code with the regulatory authorities so that they can be included in the government procurement catalog. China requires the open source code to be In consideration of national security to prevent hackers from attacking, it does not mean technology transfer or spillover. As in the disclosure of technology in the patent system, while the government is open, government regulators are responsible for protecting the technology and intellectual property of related companies, but for There are no special requirements or restrictions on these products in the commercial and consumer markets. For example, since Win7 uses a different cloud service than window XP, the government procurement catalog does not include Win7, but the operating system can be legally sold in the Chinese commercial market. .
China has not used the internationally-applicable standard patent compulsory transfer terms. In accordance with international practice and commercial practices, all countries require the owner to transfer the right to use the standard patent. This means that in the high-tech fields such as electronic information, technology-based With rapid development and changes in industry standards, relevant government departments in various countries can impose mandatory authorizations on standard patents, which are also included in the Chinese “Patent Law.” However, at present, China has not used any standard compulsory patent transfer provisions. ( The author is a professor of strategic management at Guanghua School of Management, Peking University.
5. Disturbed A-shares in the trade war between China and the United States: Advanced manufacturing has become a safe haven, saying 'limited impact';
On March 26th, under the influence of the Sino-US trade warfare, the A-share shock wave continued to spread. However, the differentiation has already appeared. On the same day, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 collectively 'dilemma', bank, insurance, agricultural sector fell the highest, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 all-day drop. At one point over 2%, it closed down to 1.88% late in the day, while the GEM index rebounded sharply, with a gain of more than 3% late in the day.
After the close of the day, Zeng Linghua, research director of the Good Buy Fund Research Center, told 21st Century Business Herald that 'China-US trade friction has increased market uncertainty and will increase market volatility. The United States intends to impose a large-scale tariff on imports from China. , mainly for China's information technology, new energy, biotechnology, high-end equipment and other directions, the electronics industry or become a key target. In the short term or related industries have an impact, long-term but can not stop the full rise of China's manufacturing. '
On the same day, the 21st Century Business Herald reporter interviewed Yilian Network (300628.SZ), Leybold High Tech ((002106.SZ) and others. All of the above-mentioned company members expressed that they have coping strategies for the development of the situation and they are expected to have limited impact on the operating results.
Funds Favors 'Safe Haven'
'This trade friction between China and the United States has caused great turmoil in the global market including A shares. But the more market sentiment fluctuates, the more it needs to maintain a rational attitude. In the long run, the Sino-U.S. trade conflict will Promote China to further increase its investment in domestic technological innovation and increase the competitiveness of its own brands. ' On the same day, the relevant person in charge of Chongyang Investment said.
It is worth mentioning that the military sector was strong throughout the day and became the 'safe haven' for the main funding.
According to the Wind data, on March 26th, when the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.60%, the defense industry (CITIC level) index rose 4.99% on the day, ranking 29th in the CITIC level industry. one.
In the intraday trading day, Huali Chuangtong (300045.SZ) closed in a straight line in the morning, followed by a daily limit on July 12th (603712.SH). In addition, Zhenxin Technology (300101.SZ), AVIC Aircraft (000758.SZ) also With the increase, the final gains reached 6.83%, 5.53%.
'In the context of the Sino-US trade war, the military sector is one of the least affected sectors and should receive excess returns.' Analyst Yang Zhidong of the Huashang Fund said in this analysis that the military sector's resistance to changes in the external environment and the nature of its resistance to economic cycles Will continue to highlight, from the fundamentals to see the military sector reforms continue to move, after the second quarter military-related companies' orders and performance may be warmer.
According to public information, on March 24th, the second aircraft of the COMAC C919 large passenger aircraft successfully completed a test flight. In addition, as the recent Sino-U.S. trade war continues to ferment, Boeing, as the largest U.S. exporter, has been included in China’s suspension of concessions. The possibility of the product list, the C919 industry chain is expected to indirectly benefit from the import substitution effect brought by the trade war upgrade.
Zeng Linghua believes that although the short-term volatility of A shares has increased, the measurement of medium and long-term stock market is still a valuation and profit dimension. 'The factors that currently affect these two levels have not yet emerged (but trade frictions still need to track the development of events). We recommend Investors do not have to be overly pessimistic, adjust their positions appropriately, and more importantly, adjust the position structure, and pay attention to the over-expected earnings period.
In the face of uncertainty, relevant investment institutions have also responded.
On the same day, Peibei Investment stated that it would appropriately reduce its position center and hoped to combine investment by looking for companies with obvious self-improvements that were relatively weak in macroeconomic correlation. Hao Cheng Investment revealed that it will maintain a medium position and make a balanced allocation. At the same time actively looking for structural stocks opportunities.
The Shifeng Assets also stated that the investment portfolio is mainly based on the consumer industry, and the operating performance of all the target companies is basically driven by domestic demand. Even if the trade war is intensified, the impact on the company’s own operations is small, and the impact on the portfolio is small. Do not make adjustments for the time being.
Some companies respond limited impact
Under the impact of the Sino-US trade war, the market is more worried that listed companies that have business dealings with the United States, such as new energy, biotechnology, and high-end equipment, are affected.
On the same day, Yilianlian Securities Department officials responded that “At this moment, we do not know whether the company is included in the list of tariffs in the United States. However, from the perspective of the entire US imported products, domestically produced SIP phone products account for a very small proportion. Even if the company is on the list of additional tariffs, the company will take corresponding measures, including production transfer, and select countries or regions where labor costs are lower than China, on the one hand to save processing costs, while avoiding increases in tariffs. . '
According to sources from Yilian Securities, the SIP phone is relatively small compared to 5G, mobile phones and other concepts in the field of communications technology. The possibility of concern is low. Most of the global SIP phone manufacturers are manufactured in China. And the tariff is determined according to the attributes of the origin. If tariffs are added, almost all manufacturers will be affected, and basically will not change the competitiveness pattern.
Even if the company does not take any measures, considering that the final implementation of the tariff will still have a certain period of time, the impact on the company's performance in 2018 may also only affect one quarter in the end, and the US revenue accounted for about 30% of the company's annual revenue. Operations will not have much impact. 'The above person said.
On the same day, the employees of the LEYBOLD Hi-Tech Securities Department also stated that the company’s medium and large-size capacitive touch screen products are not produced in the United States. The company’s products are basically exported directly to the designated OEM/ODM manufacturers in the bonded area in China, and then After the OEM/ODM manufacturer completes the production of the complete machine, it is then exported to a specific country or region according to the customer's specified requirements. Therefore, the initial judgment on the increase in the tariff rate imposed by the United States on some high-tech products in China should not constitute a large Impact. On March 26, Sai Jinyu (601058.SH) responded on the interactive platform that the company’s sales through Vietnamese subsidiaries could effectively circumvent trade barriers.
Abby (300389.SZ) stated that the company’s products are sold globally, and the US market is only a part of it. In recent years, China, Europe, Asia Pacific, Latin America and other countries and regions have had strong demand for LED displays. The business growth has never depended on a single country or market. The company has considered the impact of this trade protection measure and prepared it. 21st Century Business Herald
6. Secretaries of the US Department of Commerce officials Zhang Zhongmou;
According to foreign reports, mainland China promised to reduce its purchase of semiconductors from Taiwan and South Korea, and to expand its purchases in the United States. This may affect Taiwan’s semiconductor industry. However, Ian Steff, deputy assistant minister of the US Department of Commerce in charge of manufacturing, was in Taiwan at the close of the day. Zhang Zhongmou, the chairman of the board, also met with the semiconductor industry in Taiwan to close the meeting. It is understood that he has repeatedly stressed that the Taiwan semiconductor industry is an important ally of the United States. He hopes that the two parties will strengthen and deepen the cooperative relationship; this will give a strong boost to the Taiwan semiconductor industry. needle.
Said Taiwan Semiconductor Industry is an important ally
Shi Yien served for nearly a decade at the Semiconductor Industry Association in Washington, DC, and was elected vice president of the Global Policy and Technology Partnership. Participants reported that Shi Yien went to TCC headquarters to meet for more than two hours and went to a nearby meeting. The Royal Hotel closed talks with members of the Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Association (TSIA) and the International Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Industry Association (SEMI). However, due to his late arrival, he disclosed that he had talked with Zhang Zhongmou for a long time and Zhang would give him many comments before he arrived.
Participants pointed out that Shi Yien, who was visiting Taiwan for the first time as an official deputy assistant minister, emphasized that the Taiwan semiconductor industry has always been highly complementary to the United States. It can be said to be an important US allies and hopes that both parties can have more exchanges and cooperation in the future; Concerned about the status of American companies including Taiwan Micron Semiconductor and other companies in Taiwan.
U.S. trust in Taiwan's supply chain far exceeds that of mainland China
Industry experts pointed out that last year, global semiconductor output value was nearly 500 billion U.S. dollars, and the United States with a crown was more than 200 billion U.S. dollars. However, many IC design company's chips are used for wafer foundry and packaging testing in supply chains such as TSMC, UMC, Riyueguang, and silicon products. Many of them are applied in the US defense industry. It is evident that "the United States relies on and trusts Taiwan's supply chain far more than China's."
Deng Maosong, general manager of Etron Technologies, and Huang Yijun, vice president of Realtek Semiconductor, have also raised the issue of stealing Chinese corners and stealing intellectual property (IP) money to prevent blockage. Some industry sources disclosed that due to the interaction between Taiwan's semiconductor industry and the mainland High-quality, the United States attaches great importance to the United States in the Taiwan Association (AIT) two months ago also met with industry representatives in the same place to discuss issues such as Chinese encroachment.
Officials of the Ministry of Economic Affairs confirmed that Shi Yien did visit the Ministry of Economic Affairs on the same day for a short time and exchanged views with the Taiwanese industry for further cooperation. He did not discuss specific issues or industries. Free Times
7. Sino-U.S. Trade Center Semiconductor Middle Arrow? IC Factory: It is impossible to switch orders this year;
Trade wars eased, foreign reports were reported, the United States demanded that mainland China purchase more of the United States semiconductors, Taiwan factory fear of the impact. However, industry sources said that wafer foundry can not be single, DRAM is now tight supply, the probability of a single transfer is very high low.
IC design factory said that mobile phone chip design and orders have been finalized this year, and transfer orders are not possible. However, if orders are transferred to Qualcomm next year, there may be room for discussion. However, with technical support, 5G will have to be Qualcomm next year. Main. (Chen Yu/Taipei report) Apple Daily
8. Chip makers take a cautious view of the Sino-US trade war;
Just hours after President Trump proposed to impose tariffs on about 60 billion U.S. dollars worth of Chinese-made products, China quickly launched a counterattack, announcing plans to impose tariffs on about 3 billion U.S. dollars of U.S. products. The semiconductor industry is cautious about this...
Under the banner of 'fighting China’s unfair trade policy,' the Trump administration of the United States recently announced plans to impose tariffs on Chinese goods of up to 60 billion U.S. dollars, and the semiconductor industry has taken a cautious approach to this.
U.S. President Trump elaborated this tax collection action on Thursday, March 22, and conducted a seven-month investigation of China’s technological policies and practices. This action will include restricting China’s access to U.S. technology companies. The investment, as well as challenges to China's technical licensing activities in the World Trade Organization (WTO), China almost immediately launched a counterattack, and proposed a tariff proposal on US products including pork, wine, fruit, and steel.
Although chip makers have long complained about China’s policies and attitudes regarding intellectual property (IP) protection, many remain wary of the unclear consequences of the comprehensive trade war between the United States and China.
The United States Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), a trade organization that represents American chip makers, issued a statement on Thursday to support 'to avoid costly trade conflicts protecting US IP'.
SIA President and CEO John Neuffer said that the SIA is also reviewing the government's findings and recommendations. Neuffer said: 'The US semiconductor industry, like the Trump administration, is concerned that China's unfair and discriminatory trade practices pose risks to US IP. '
The U.S. government will submit a list of Chinese products within two weeks, and these products will be subject to a 25% tariff. According to U.S. government regulations, tariff products will include aviation, IT, communications equipment and machinery.
However, starting from the official release of the US Trade Representative’s list of target products, the new tariff plan will not come into effect until the end of the 30-day public comment period. The long waiting time leads to speculation that the new tariff policy will eventually Will be lobbying groups and elected representatives to downplay.
Trump said that the United States is currently negotiating with China, which has led people to speculate that the tariff policy and other actions put forward last Thursday were only part of China’s negotiation strategy.
When Trump spoke at the White House on Thursday, he said: 'Therefore, we exchange views with China on this. At present, the two sides are conducting a large-scale negotiation. We will soon see the final result. 'He added that The proposed action will be carried out at the same time as 'at the same time'.
Trump’s taxation action was made on the basis of the survey results. The survey results showed that China’s policies and practices related to technology transfer, IP, and innovation are unreasonable or discriminatory. This survey was conducted by the United States last August. Trade representative Robert Lighthizer conducted under the direction of Trump.
U.S. companies face mandatory technology transfer to China?
In this 215-page survey, Lighthizer concluded that China’s policy on joint ventures, foreign investment, administrative review and authorization procedures is designed to force or pressure US companies to implement technology transfer.
Trump said: 'We are facing a serious IP theft situation, which is also worth hundreds of billions of dollars, and is calculated on a yearly basis.'
U.S. government officials are increasingly tired of acquiring Western companies with Chinese entities that have financial relationships with the Chinese central government. Trump and his predecessor, Barack Obama, have all blocked Chinese companies from acquiring U.S. companies and assets. Earlier this month At the time, Trump blocked Broadcom's acquisition of Qualcomm on the grounds that it would weaken the US position in 5G technology.
The semiconductor industry has always been a specific target of Chinese investment. The Chinese government has drawn up a strong plan to build a domestic semiconductor industry with a 10-year investment fund of more than US$160 billion. This is considered by some to be a threat to the leadership of the US semiconductor industry. In addition to the government's policy of coercive or pressured technology transfer, American chip companies have long accused China of using fake IP protection and openly plagiarism.
Shortly before the departure of Obama in January 2017, Obama published a tough-worded report stating that China is actively pursuing strategies for a more important position in the global chip field and that US semiconductors are under threat. The report concluded that China’s policies Distorted the market, undermined innovation, reduced the U.S. share in this market, and also plunged the U.S. into national security risks.
In a statement issued by the SIA on Thursday, Neuffer said that U.S. wafer companies 'should be able to compete in foreign markets while ensuring that their key IPs are not at risk.'
But Neuffer welcomes China's participation in the global semiconductor industry, but it must be 'in line with its international obligations and consistent with market principles'. Neuffer added that: 'Ultimately, only strong protection of IP can meet the long-term interests of the United States and China.'
Compilation: Luffy Liu eettaiwan