According to the latest information from the “Global Fab Forecasting Report” announced at the end of February 2018, the micro-network news will show that global fab equipment spending will increase by 5% in 2019 and will continue to grow substantially for the fourth consecutive year. With a drastic change in the picture, China will be the main promoter of equipment growth for global fabs in 2018 and 2019. Global fab investment has been strong. Since the mid-1990s, there has been no record of three-year growth in equipment spending in the industry. .
SEMI (International Semiconductor Industry Association) predicts that global wafer fab equipment spending will be topped by Samsung in 2018 and 2019, but the investment amount is not as high as 2017. In contrast, it supports multinational and local fabs. It is planned that in 2018, the spending on wafer fabs in mainland China will increase by 57% from the previous year and 60% in 2019. The spending on equipment in Mainland China is expected to surpass South Korea by 2019 and become the world’s highest expenditure area.
Following the record-breaking investment amount in 2017, Korean fab equipment spending will decline by 9% to 18 billion U.S. dollars by 2018, and will drop by another 14% to 20 billion U.S. dollars by 2019. However, both spending will exceed 2017. Before the end of the year. As for Taiwan, which has the world’s third-largest investment in wafer fabs, wafer equipment spending will decline by 10% in 2018 to approximately US$10 billion. However, in 2019, it is expected to rebound by 15% to more than US$11 billion. .
As the previously built fabs entered the equipment-installation phase, the spending on wafer fab equipment in mainland China continued to increase. There were 26 wafer fabs that started to set a new record. Equipment will be installed in the next two years. However, domestic companies can do so in 2019. We hope to increase fab investment, which will account for all related expenditures in mainland China from 33% in 2017 to 45% in 2019.
2. The supply of silicon wafers exceeds supply The global gross margin will increase to 36.3% this year;
According to the micro-network news, the Asian Department of Foreign Investment believes that the continued shortage of semiconductor wafers and the growth of demand will help promote global wafer product prices and gross profit margins, and maintain an “outperform” rating, with a potential price increase of about 20%.
The Asian Department of Foreign Investment issued a research report stating that the supply of silicon wafers is in short supply, and the global wafer 12-inch wafer price is expected to rise by 24% next year this year, 17%, and the 8 inch wafer price will increase by 15% next year, 8% next year. As a result, global wafers have been synchronised and upgraded this year. The EPS forecast for next year will be 6%, 17% to 28.75 yuan, and 40.1 yuan. In addition, the management will continue to watch silicon wafers of all sizes and will continue to rise until 2019. It also implies that 70% to 80% of capacity before 2019 has been ordered by customers.
Universal Crystal benefited from the growth of semiconductor demand, coupled with the gradual opening of production capacity in wafer factories in mainland China, which pushed up the supply and demand of silicon wafers, and also contributed to the success of Global Crystal's operations last year. Revenue, net operating profit, net profit after tax and per Shares of pure interest, all write history high record.
The Asian Department of Foreign Investment pointed out that Global Wafer's customers have stable demand for advanced and traditional technologies, and their applications cover industrial ICs, power management ICs, and automotive electronics. The expected gross profit margin will increase from 25.6% last year to 36.3% this year. 40.8% next year.
Looking into the future, according to the current market outlook, the semiconductor industry will continue to increase the demand for silicon wafers. In addition to the current production of semiconductor wafers, Global Crystal will also invest in the next generation of new products, SiC, and GaN. Production, in response to customer-end new products, including the rapid growth trend of 5G and automotive components applications.
3. Is it worth investing in a 2 nanometer process?
Even a 5nm process has made it difficult to determine whether any advantages can be found. 3nm is likely to become the semiconductor's ultimate advanced process, and 2nm seems too distant...
In the path to 5nm, 3nm or even 2nm semiconductor process technology, engineers in the industry may have a variety of options, but some people are not sure whether they can still find any commercial benefit from it, even the 5nm process.
In order to build ever-decreasing wafers, the complexity and cost required are getting higher and higher, but it leads to diminishing returns. Recently Qualcomm (Qualcomm) at a symposium at the Synopsys User Conference (SNUG). An engineer pointed out that the data rate of the mobile processor will peak at 3GHz, while the power consumption and area gain will start to decrease from 7nm.
Paul Penzes, senior engineering director of Qualcomm's design technology team, pointed out that due to the presence of electrical resistance in metal wires, 16% of the speed increase at 10nm is depleted at 7nm. In addition, from 10nm to 7nm, the power savings will be from 30%. Reducing to 10-25%, the area shrinks from 37% to 20-30%.
For decades, the electronics industry has followed the development blueprint set by Moore's Law - the number of transistors that can be accommodated on a wafer has roughly doubled every two years. The result is from personal computers ( From PCs to smart phones, the sizes of products are getting smaller, faster and faster, and prices are getting cheaper and cheaper.
Penzes said: 'The current chip area is still continuing to shrink in a very high number of double digits, but the hidden cost behind the mask means that the actual cost advantage and other progress are beginning to slow down... It is unclear what is still possible at 5nm. ' This means that the 5nm node is probably only an extension of 7nm.
Technologists from Synopsys and Samsung stated that today's FinFET transistor version should also be able to be used at the 5nm node. And when it goes below the 3.5nm width, the FinFET will reach its limit.
According to Victor Moroz, a Synopsys researcher and transistor expert, designers may have to transition to using about three layers of lateral nanowire stacks, or 'nano-slabs'. Samsung announced plans to use gates. Full-ring (GAA) transistor to achieve 4nm process, the goal is to put into production in 2020.
Synopsys Munoz said that by the next technology node, the pitch reduction will be reduced to about 0.8 times per generation. This will force the designers to reduce the 7nm double fin, 6-rail 228nm cell height structure, at 3nm and 2nm. To single fin, 5-track 130-100nm structure.
He concluded that using this technology, 'silicon crystals seem to allow us to safely scale down to 2nm, and after that, we may start using graphene.'
However, in the final Q&A session, one participant was shocked by the structure of this single fin 5-track unit.
Synopsys Demonstrates General Development Roadmap to 2nm (Source: Synopsys)
Henry Sheng, director of research and development at Synopsys, said that the complexity of the finer processes has forced chip designers to face increasingly stringent design rules. For example, FinFETs bring new waves to waveform propagation, electromigration and component variations that engineers must follow. Effect. But he also optimistically believes that 'these effects will eventually be solved'.
Experts at this forum believe that success will ultimately depend on the close cooperation between the foundry, EDA, and the design engineer. When moving toward the goal, Qualcomm believes that in order to obtain the best productivity, Adjust advanced designs before production begins, and define process nodes more clearly.
'Because of the fierce competition in mobile processors, the nodes introduced by foundries are getting immature,' Penzes said. 'If you exceed your profits, then the average unit cost will increase and become less competitive.'
'Now, before understanding the electrical characteristics of a unit, it is necessary to master its environment first,' he added. 'Even a 10% variation may lose all the advantages of a new node. Therefore, all the noise that existed before was Must overcome. '
Penzes pointed out that some recent development work has brought hope for this. Foundries are looking for ways to scale down various units at different rates, and EDA vendors have also promised to improve wiring, perhaps by using extreme ultraviolet lithography ( EUV) technology.
Moroz said that engineers have also begun to explore many other technologies to reduce the resistivity on metal wires, thereby opening the door to speeding up the advantages. The approach includes new structures such as gradients and superconducting holes across multiple metal layers (super) -vias), as well as new materials such as cobalt (Co) and ruthenium (Ru).
In order to illustrate the challenges ahead, Moroz elaborated on the development blueprint. (Source: Synopsys)
The long-lasting and constant success factor is still the engineer's confidence to find a solution to the thorny problem.
For example, Samsung promised to develop specifications for the 7-nm process with EUV, and plans to build wafers this year, but it is still waiting for the stepper. Jongwook Kye, vice president of design support at Samsung Foundry, said at the symposium, 'As long as ASML can provide these Tools, we will begin to put a lot of manufacturing. '.
At the same time, Samsung is also trying to define new transistors for 4nm production in 2020. Kyle said: 'This is the challenge that we must overcome in the next few years; as long as we can work closely with tool suppliers and other companies, I believe we will eventually To achieve the goal. '
Compilation: Susan Hong eettaiwan (Reference: Path to 2 nm May Not Be Worth It, by Rick Merritt)
4. Steadfast increase in VCSEL contribution to increase revenue to 20%;
European Department of Foreign Investment pointed out that as more Apple products and Android camp use 3D sensing technology, GaAs giants will continue to secure VCSEL wafer foundry will contribute more than 20% of this year's revenue, giving "buy" rating and The target price is NT$380.
The latest report from the European Department of Foreign Investment has for the first time incorporated stable stocks into the tracking stocks. It is optimistic that Stable has a unique position in the compound semiconductor supply chain. In 2016, it has stabilized the global gallium arsenide (GaAs) wafer foundry market with a market share of over 66%. %, Ranked No. 1 in the world, started providing VCSEL (Vertical Cavity Surface-emitting Laser) Foundry service for Apple's 3D Sensing partner Lumentum in the second half of last year.
With more Apple products adopting 3D sensing technology, the European Union expects that the proportion of VCSEL’s contribution to revenue will increase from 10% in 2017 to more than 20% in 2018. Despite rising demand for 3D sensing, more new The entrants will join in, but they will have the advantage of advanced players. In addition, the Android camp may follow Apple's design and use 3D sensing, which will further promote the steady growth of VCSEL's performance.
European Department of Foreign Investment emphasizes that stable stock prices have faced volatility in the past six months, mainly due to changes in the expected demand of the iPhone and concerns about stabilizing customers Avago. Broadcom has been in a recession in the next iPhone market. In fact, stable stock prices have reflected most bearish growth prospects. Period. Economic Daily
5. Research: 2018-2020 global smart machine 3D sensing module CAGR value of 45%;
Micro-message news, TrendForce and its flagship Industrial Research Institute held today (27) '3D sensing technology rise: consumer electronics applications and business opportunities' seminar, invited AIXTRON, Qualcomm, Intel, Texas Instruments, Microsoft and other large The plant fully analyzes the development of 3D sensing technology. Terry Choi, research manager of Tiebo Industrial Research Institute, said that 3D sensing technology not only shines on smart phones, but will also be gradually introduced into notebooks, TVs, game consoles, and drones. Automated driving, home automation and other fields, from strengthening biometrics, enhancing AR effects to dynamic tracking, bring more possibilities and business opportunities.
Currently, the global manufacturers that have invested in 3D sensing layout include Apple, Microsoft, Intel, Google, Opto Semiconductors, STMicroelectronics, Austria Microelectronics, and Qualcomm, Himax, Sony United Technologies, etc.
From the perspective of the development of 3D sensing in the smart phone market, 3D sensing is not new technology, but it was not until the iPhone X introduced the TrueDepth camera module in 2017 that the 3D sensing was regained market attention. Next, the Apple 2018 Three new iPhone models are expected to be launched in the year. Takurai Industry Research Institute analyzes that in order to pursue changes in appearance, the three new models (including the LCD version) may use the 'Thai-hai' special-shaped screen design, thus equipped with a 3D sensing model. The group is highly likely to be in line with Apple's active product introduction strategy for 3D sensing. The iPhone 3's 3D sensing module is built by Apple in accordance with its PrimeSense technology. Due to the high cost of technology change and the high barriers to entry, it is expected to be 2018. Will maintain the same basic design.
Tuo pointed out that this wave of 3D sensing brought by Apple's iPhone X has also made the key component VCSEL a darling of the market. However, due to high technical barriers, suppliers with mass production capacity are still quite limited, resulting in tight supply of VCSELs. The problem, which in turn affects the follow-up speed of the Android camp.
In addition, there is a patent agreement between Lumentum, a major supplier of VCSELs, and Apple, which makes it possible for Android players to follow suit in the short term. They can only choose VCSEL and choose EEL (edge-fired laser). However, the photoelectric conversion efficiency of EEL is poor. And the high cost, which will make the Android camp's 3D sensing program is still difficult to compete with Apple in terms of efficiency and cost.
Accordingly, Takuma estimated that Apple will remain the largest adopter of mobile 3D sensing in 2018. It is expected that the total number of smartphones carrying 3D sensing modules in the world will reach 197 million in 2018, of which the iPhone will account for it. 165 million units. In addition, the market value of 3D sensing modules in 2018 is estimated to be approximately US$5.12 billion, of which the proportion contributed by the iPhone is as high as 84.5%. It is estimated that by 2020, the overall output value will reach 10.85 billion U.S. dollars, 2018 -CAGR was 45.6% in 2020.
Charlene Choi pointed out that the development of 3D sensing applications still faces the predicament of lack of necessity and motivation. How future manufacturers provide lower cost and diverse 3D sensing applications will affect the overall market's subsequent growth rate, and this will also depend on future third parties. The development of applications and the improvement of the cost-effectiveness of 3D sensing modules.