Micro-message news, TrendForce and its flagship Industrial Research Institute today held a seminar on 'The Rise of 3D Sensing Technology: Consumer Electronics Applications and Business Opportunities', and invited AIXTRON, Qualcomm, Intel, Texas Instruments, and Microsoft to fully analyze 3D. Sensing Technology Development. Takurai Industries Research Manager Charlene Choi said that 3D sensing technology will not only shine on smart phones, but will also be gradually introduced into notebooks, TVs, game consoles, drones, autopilot, and homes. In fields such as automation, from strengthening biometrics, enhancing AR effects to dynamic tracking, bringing more possibilities and business opportunities.
Currently, the global manufacturers that have invested in 3D sensing layout include Apple, Microsoft, Intel, Google, Opto Semiconductors, STMicroelectronics, Austria Microelectronics, and Qualcomm, Himax, Sony United Technologies, etc.
From the perspective of the development of 3D sensing in the smart phone market, 3D sensing is not new technology, but it was not until the iPhone X introduced the TrueDepth camera module in 2017 that the 3D sensing was regained market attention. Next, the Apple 2018 It is estimated that three new iPhone models will be introduced in the year and Takurai Industry Research Institute will analyze them. In order to pursue changes in appearance, the three new models (including the LCD version) may all adopt the 'Thai-hai' heterogeneous screen design, and therefore carry the 3D sensing model. The group is highly likely to be in line with Apple's active product introduction strategy for 3D sensing. The iPhone 3's 3D sensing module is built by Apple in accordance with its PrimeSense technology. Due to the high cost of technology change and the high threshold, it is expected to be 2018. Will maintain the same basic design.
Tuo pointed out that this wave of 3D sensing brought by Apple's iPhone X has also made the key component VCSEL a darling of the market. However, due to the high technical threshold, suppliers with mass production capacity are still quite limited, resulting in tight supply of VCSELs. The problem, which in turn affects the follow-up speed of the Android camp.
In addition, there is a patent agreement between Lumentum, a major supplier of VCSELs, and Apple, which makes it possible for Android players to follow suit in the short term. They can only choose VCSEL and choose EEL (edge-fired laser). However, the photoelectric conversion efficiency of EEL is poor. And the high cost, which will make the Android camp's 3D sensing program is still difficult to compete with Apple in terms of efficiency and cost.
Accordingly, Takuma estimated that Apple will remain the largest adopter of mobile 3D sensing in 2018. It is expected that the total number of smartphones equipped with 3D sensing modules in the world will reach 197 million in 2018, of which the iPhone will account for it. 165 million units. In addition, the estimated value of the 3D sensing module market in 2018 is approximately US$5.12 billion, of which the contribution from the iPhone is as high as 84.5%. It is estimated that by 2020, the overall output value will reach 10.85 billion U.S. dollars, 2018 -CAGR was 45.6% in 2020.
Charlene Choi pointed out that the development of 3D sensing applications still faces the predicament of lack of necessity and motivation. How future manufacturers provide lower cost and diverse 3D sensing applications will affect the overall market's subsequent growth rate, and this will also depend on future third parties. The development of applications and the improvement of the cost-effectiveness of 3D sensing modules.