Technology upgrades reduce costs, and photovoltaics are rapidly evolving toward parity.
On March 24th, with the Datong front runners issuing the final winning bid results, all eight front runners in the third batch of 10 front runners’ bases released the winning bid results (Delingha and Golmud suspended due to policy reasons).
China Merchants Securities' new team pointed out that the leader project is rapidly approaching parity, and the proportion of subsidies is expected to rapidly fall from the current 40% to 10%-15% (within one year), and the endogenous nature of the industry will gradually manifest itself with the expansion of new production capacity. .
Price war
In the development of photovoltaics, the industry has been calling for a price war, but it is inevitable. In the 2018 China Household Photovoltaic Branding Exhibition Foshan Forum held in the same period as the exhibition, many people in the industry also published their own view.
According to Zheng Hanbo, deputy general manager of Huawei's Smart Photovoltaic Business Unit in China, because of the cost-based pricing, the company’s household inverter products are still very expensive. At the moment when the inverters are fighting, everyone starts to cut prices, but we dare not. After the drop, the profits are very thin. This year we changed our strategy and we cannot implement cost pricing. The household market is now living at this stage. Below, so many dealers, everyone must live.
In addition to inverters used in household photovoltaics, the prices of PV modules are also declining, which affects the performance of related companies to a certain extent.
On the evening of March 22, JinkoSolar announced its 2017 annual results report. Although its shipments and sales increased by 47.3% and 23.7% year-on-year, respectively, the company’s annual business revenue plummeted from RMB 1.35 billion in 2016. In 2017, it had a net profit of RMB 141.7 million, a decrease of 92.24% year-on-year. The gross profit margin decreased from 18.1% in 2016 to 11.3% in 2017.
In the annual report, JinkoSolar pointed out that the decrease in gross profit margin was due to increased production with OEM partners in order to meet aggressive market demand. In addition, it was affected by rising raw material prices and falling component prices.
A component manufacturer told reporters that in addition to being affected by the rushing tide, prices of single crystal modules and polycrystalline modules have also been reduced to some extent.
In the period from 2009 to 2011, mainly monocrystalline and polycrystalline were used. However, after the EU's dual-reduction in 2012, the polycrystalline market has gradually risen due to its cost. Although polycrystalline silicon is relatively inefficient, its early appearance is not very good. , From the sales point of view, everyone’s first impression is not good. However, taking into account the cost of no way, the single crystal slowly withdraws, and continued until 2015-2016, has been boosted by technical requirements such as the leader, single crystal regained occupation. market.
'Lonky contributed to the promotion of monocrystalline silicon. 'The above said that Longji currently accounts for about half of the monocrystalline silicon market.
However, he pointed out that, in fact, it is very difficult in 2018. The distributed market capacity of domestic ground power stations and industrial plants is shrinking, but the production capacity continues to expand. At the same time, the single-crystal market is fragmented, especially in the field of household use. It is difficult to reach large-scale coverage, requiring many dealers, agents, and the household market is still dominated by polycrystalline. Single crystals need to go through volume reduction and polycrystalline competition. Longji actively reduced wafer prices by 0.5 yuan last year.
In this case, the price drop of single crystals caused the polycrystalline linking price reduction effect, which is the 'price war'. At the same time, the monocrystalline silicon manufacturers Longji and Zhonghuan are still expanding their production. In 2018, Longji is expected to be in wafers. End to build 28GW capacity.
In Zhang Bing’s opinion, the actual significance of these two products is not too great, but it is ultimately decided by the market. Because the price of components is calculated on the basis of power. High power density, converted to system cost, not necessarily high price.
'Single crystals have high efficiency, less floor space, and less use of auxiliary materials such as brackets. The capital density of investment volume per unit area can be higher.' Zhang Bing said that at present, the spread is reasonable for the time being.
PV loan risk
In household photovoltaics, the price difference is even more pronounced. The scope of the quotation basically ranges from 4.5 yuan/watt to 9 yuan/watt. However, unlike on-ground power plants, the price competition in the household photovoltaic market comes from dealers more. Assembler pressures low-cost competition.
Because of the lack of guarantee for system quality, it brings a series of risks. Behind the malignant situation of household PV systems being blown down and caught fire, more attention is paid to financial risks. Some users loaned photovoltaic products and eventually failed to meet quality problems. Power generation, resulting in capital credit risk.
In this regard, Zhang Bing said that at present many places have turned the PV loan model into a zero down payment, or that the overwhelming majority are relying on loans to shake up. Many places rely excessively on financial leverage, actually because of user-to-product And the future earnings are uncertain, due to lack of cognition.
Abuse of PV loan has harmed users, distributors, and banks. Users do not realize the investment risks. Dealers need to have a standard for user's choice because they want to expand sales quickly. For dealers, if they want to push the system For users, directly allowing users to loan, short-term may be due to subsidies can not be put in place, resulting in less than expected, in fact, will ultimately affect the credibility of the user, at the same time, the loan is often dealers need to support the bottom, or certain guarantees, also Will affect the dealer's liquidity.
Zhejiang is the promotion of household photovoltaics, and it is also the earliest region to promote photovoltaic loan finance. Local banks have great support and the sequelae of photovoltaic loans have also emerged earlier. Zhang Bing said that some banks in Zhejiang Province, grid companies have actively recommended users to choose large The brand cooperates with a systematic platform. 'We have been receiving customers from local banks in Zhejiang since last month and we are actively looking forward to cooperation. At present, some regions in Zhejiang are no longer willing to cooperate with small assembly companies.'
In South China, household photovoltaics have not developed as fast as the north and Zhejiang provinces, attempting to attract household PV brand owners through more aggressive financial policies.
In 2017, there were more than 500,000 household PV installations in China, Zhejiang, Shandong and Hebei. Each province exceeded 100,000. However, the Guangdong region has a rough estimate of no more than 20,000 households.
Wang Shujuan, deputy general manager of the technical standards department of Beijing Jianjian Energy Consulting Co., Ltd., believes that the development of the photovoltaic loan model will slow down. The direct reason is that the loan has reduced the yield. The cost of photovoltaic loan is generally 6-7. %. The cost is 7 yuan/Wh, the income in most regions (11) is about 7%; the cost is 6.5 yuan/Wh, the income in most regions is 8-10%, the yield in 4 western cities is less than 8% .
It is understood that some rural households in Guangdong have been reluctant to lend because the loan cost is high. If the user pays in full, the current price in Guangdong can be recovered in the Foshan region in six or seven years. If the loan, it may take ten years. the above.
