First, development status
Industry scale remains stable
By the end of February 2018, there were 24 domestic polysilicon producers (including normal maintenance companies), with an effective production capacity of 293,000 tons/year, and a total output of 47,700 tons in the January-February period, an increase of 27.2% year-on-year. '1'. 2018 - In February, the output of China's modules reached about 8 GW, which was basically the same as in the same period of 2017. The output of polysilicon production was even full-scale or even over-production. Most of the output of components was driven by overseas orders. The statistics of the four leading component companies were domestic. Order shipments accounted for only 20% of total shipments. Most SMEs have low capacity utilization due to poor domestic market, and industry average capacity utilization rate is about 65%. In January-February, 8.5 GW of new photovoltaic capacity was installed, but The actual market demand was limited. In January, the export value of solar cell products was 1.054 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.1%, a decrease of 3.8% from the previous month.
(b) Product prices continue to decline
As the first quarter was the traditional off-season and the Spring Festival in February affected the upstream production and downstream installations in January and March, the market demand declined, and the technical progress of the photovoltaic industry continued to advance, resulting in the continued decline in the prices of photovoltaic products. For polysilicon, the product price has dropped from 150 yuan/kg in January to 124 yuan/kg at present, and 115 yuan/kg has also appeared. Polysilicon wafers are currently 3.6-3.7 yuan per wafer, single crystal wafer 4.3 -4.5 yuan/piece, component price is around 2.5-2.6 yuan/W.
(C) Foreign trade situation is not optimistic
On January 5, 2018, the General Directorate of Safeguards of India made a preliminary investigation of India's PV protection measures and proposed an interim measure to the Central Government of India. The General Directorate of Safeguards proposed the introduction of solar photovoltaic products (including crystalline silicon cells and components and films) into India. Batteries and components) 70% of the ad valorem tax is levied as a temporary safeguard measure for a period of 200 days. On January 22, 2018, the Trump administration formally approved the US to impose a levying on imported photovoltaic cells (over 2.5 GW) and components. % tariffs, tax rates are decremented by 5% year-on-year for the next 3 years, and the implementation period is 4 years. India and the United States are the world's major PV markets. Both markets have successively imposed higher punitive tariffs on China, which will greatly affect China's photovoltaic products. Direct exports.
Second, the development trend
(a) The global market will slow down
The world's 2018 market may experience negative growth at 90-95 GW. The United States is affected by 201. The increase in prices may result in a decrease in installed capacity, and in addition to the accumulated 5 GW inventories, the actual demand is expected to be only 6 GW. Japan's PV subsidy continues to decrease as the PV subsidy continues to decrease. The number of people also dropped sharply, so the market may drop to 5GW. India's market demand affected by anti-dumping policies will also decline. China's optimistic situation may have 45GW, a 15% year-on-year decline, and uncontracted pre-construction projects exceeding 5GW will Occupying the scale of ordinary power plant indicators does not generate new demand. In the case of pessimism, if the general power plant indicators are not released and the distribution is included in scale management, the market may drop to 35 GW. Although Europe, South America, China, the United States, the Middle East, Australia and other countries And regional photovoltaic market will show growth, but due to small increment or small volume, it is not enough to make up for the reduction of the global total installed capacity caused by the decline of the top three markets.
(II) The whole industry is facing greater price pressure
As a whole, the prices of photovoltaic products will remain stable in the first half of the year. However, due to the slowdown in market demand and the release of new production capacity in the second half of the year, product prices will decline. Polysilicon is stable at about 120 yuan/kg before the third quarter. However, with the concentrated release of new production capacity in the fourth quarter, the price of polysilicon products will fall to RMB 110/kg in the fourth quarter. Due to the rapid growth of production capacity, the product price may fall below RMB 100/kg by 2019. The state is responsible for captive power plants. The tightening of policies may increase the production cost of the company. As a result, the profits of polysilicon shrunk. It is expected that a group of companies with low cost competitiveness will be eliminated. In terms of wafers, the polysilicon film is expected to fall to 3.3- in the second half of the year. At 3.4 yuan per piece, the company can only maintain financial balance. As for components, the profitability of components in 2017 is poor, and good companies also have a net profit margin of only about 1%. It is expected that the price of products may decline to the end of 2018. 2-2.1 yuan / W, and due to glass, aluminum frame and other raw material prices and terminal prices continue to decline, the cost pressures are growing.
(III) Industry mergers and reorganizations will start substantively
In 2018, it is expected that the domestic market demand will tend to high-efficiency battery module technology. Some low-tech and low-efficiency battery manufacturers will be eliminated. In addition, a batch of inverter manufacturers will also seek mergers and acquisitions due to price impact. The whole polysilicon manufacturing company will stop production at the end of 2018 to 2019 because the production cost cannot cover the product price.
Third, there is a problem
(I) Policy changes may occur
At the beginning of February 2018, the National Development and Reform Commission held a meeting to discuss relevant companies' opinions on the disputes raised by various sectors of society, such as 'excessive development of the photovoltaic industry' and 'subsidy amount', and proposed to strictly control the scale and speed of photovoltaic power generation. , And the idea of integrating distributed photovoltaic power generation into scale management. If this policy is implemented, it will seriously affect China's newly-developed distributed photovoltaic market, and will also have a greater negative impact on China's overall photovoltaic market growth.
(B) The imbalance between supply and demand warrants vigilance
In 2018, the international and domestic markets will all slow down, while the expansion rate of domestic photovoltaic companies will not slow down, as shown in the table below. In particular, in the case of polysilicon expansion, it is forecasted that in 2018, the production capacity will increase by 127,000 tons and will increase in 2019. 300,000 tons. China's photovoltaic industry will face another round of imbalance between supply and demand. And because the domestic market has been fully released, there is no increase, the cash flow of enterprises is also stretched, so it may be more serious than the winter 2011-2012 photovoltaic winter.
(III) There is a large gap in subsidy funds
The rapid expansion of the photovoltaic market scale and the additional imperatives for the collection of renewable energy have led to a growing gap in subsidies. As of the end of 2016, the additional funding gap for renewable energy has reached 52 billion yuan. It is expected that by the end of 2018, the subsidy gap will reach 100 billion yuan. Most photovoltaic power generation projects are difficult to get subsidies in a timely manner, which increases the capital cost of the entire industry chain. In particular, photovoltaic companies are mostly private enterprises and have a single business, and their financing capacity is weak. Once the market fluctuates, it may bring huge impact to the industry.
(IV) Higher non-technical costs for power station construction
The non-technical costs of land, taxes, power grid access, financing, and lighting conditions in China's investment in photovoltaic power plants are relatively high, exceeding 20% of the investment in power plants, and even reaching 30%-35%, directly affecting photovoltaic power generation. The process of online access to the low-cost photovoltaic power plant began to return to the government, but there was local protection in the tendering process. The bidding and bidding of large-scale terrestrial power plant projects also had the phenomenon of resource replacement, and increased the non-technical cost of power plant investment.
(v) Mixed use of household photovoltaic market
In 2017, China's household PV market will exceed 2GW, and in 2018 it is expected to approach 5GW. However, from the perspective of development, some integrators or distributors use consumer information asymmetry, shoddy, and non-standard installation operations. From time to time, even a half board is an inefficient component, and half of it is a bad piece of paper, which greatly damages the interests of consumers. At the same time, it also brings hidden dangers to people's lives and property. The photovoltaic industry suffers from negative Misunderstandings, such as fraudulent subsidies, 'high energy consumption, high pollution', etc., have always been a stumbling block to the healthy development of the photovoltaic industry. If this damages the interests of consumers in the household photovoltaic market once the fermentation, the public opinion environment of the entire photovoltaic industry And social cognition will suffer a fatal blow.
Fourth, measure suggestions
(I) Confidence in the development of photovoltaic industry
Do not introduce policies to limit PV development in the short term, especially the development of distributed photovoltaics. In the top-level design, photovoltaic power generation will be used as the main renewable energy source and even all energy sources.
(B) rational guidance of industry expansion
Strengthen industry early warning and guide enterprises to expand rationally. Improve domestic market scale management and price regression mechanism to increase market predictability. Give full play to the role of industry associations, strengthen industry self-discipline, and avoid vicious competition.
(III) Improve industry support policies
Renewable energy quota system will be introduced as soon as possible to change the support methods for renewable energy policies. Further improve the subsidy allocation procedures, publish renewable energy subsidy catalogues on a regular basis, ensure that PV power generation projects receive subsidies in a timely manner. Continue to implement photovoltaic electricity price reduction mechanism, continue to increase competition Distribution of photovoltaic power generation projects to promote the discovery of real prices, study the “small-step, fast-moving” approach to price adjustment, taking into account the scale management of the power plant, rationally controlling the frequency and magnitude of price adjustments, and clarifying price adjustment expectations. Vigorously promote the marketization of distributed photovoltaic power generation Transaction, clarifying the responsible entities declared by pilots in various cities and ensuring related work is carried out in an orderly manner.
(IV) Reduce the non-technical costs of power station construction
Many measures are taken to solve the problem of abandoning light and electricity. Coordination of agriculture, forestry, and other departments also studied the supporting measures for supporting land for photovoltaic power generation projects. Studying work to reduce the tax burden on enterprises in the field of renewable energy, including tax reduction and fee reduction, and reducing financing costs. Contents such as the selection of regions with better conditions, the implementation of a low-cost Internet demonstration base, settlement of land, grid access, low-interest financing and other issues, launch pilot demonstrations of cheap Internet access.
(5) Strengthening the normative guidance of the household photovoltaic market
Conduct industry-wide research on household PV systems, master the status quo, sort out issues, and implement comprehensive measures. Give full play to the role of industry organizations, speed up the standardization and revision of household PV systems, and guide the normal development of household PV markets.
