According to the medical network of March 27th, the defense properties of the medical sector highlighted last week. Although the entire week remained slightly lower, the horizontal comparison still outperformed the Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 and the ChiNext, which ranked second in the industry. Analysts explained that The market is within the adjustment range. The high certainty of the performance of the pharmaceutical sector and the improvement of the industry climate index provide a higher valuation for the sector. Investors can pay attention to innovative drugs, pharmaceutical consumption upgrades and 'big medical insurance' to benefit the related stocks.
Consumption upgrade boosts sales
In terms of market conditions, the biomedicine sector continued to lead the gains for the first four trading days last week, with an increase of 2.56%, ranking first among all sectors. The market fell sharply on Friday due to frictions between China and the United States. It is 0.94%, second only to agriculture. It ranks second in 28 SWS.
From the segment analysis, medical services, pharmaceutical commerce, and biological products performed slightly better, being +0.31%, -0.06%, and -0.15%, respectively. Analysts believe that the main reason is that medical services have stronger consumption attributes and higher prosperity. Exports accounted for a relatively small proportion and were less affected by the incident. In addition, the raw materials accounted for the largest share of exports fell the most, 5.74% overall.
In the medium and long term, the long-term value of pharmaceutical stocks has been recognized by the capital market. BOC International believes that the current upsurge of domestic innovative drugs and emerging biotechnologies has also driven the inflow of funds into the biomedical sector; zero-tariff import of anti-cancer drugs will Further promote the entry of new foreign drugs into China, prompting domestic pharmaceutical companies to accelerate transformation and innovation to meet challenges. Operational attention can be paid to innovative drugs and related industrial chains, and it is recommended to increase the allocation of high-quality small and mid-cap stocks.
On the other hand, the sub-sectors of the pharmaceutical sector's sub-units of traditional Chinese medicine pharmacies also maintained a continuous upward trend this year. Analysts believe that strong industry-driven, new retail value reassessment, growth certainty and sustainability are the main reasons for the pharmacy sector continued to rise. Everbright Securities Research believes that the pharmacy sector that has continued to focus on the recommendation has continued to rise this year and has performed strongly. In terms of industry driving force, the concentration of the pharmacy industry has increased, prescription outflows and consumption upgrades have clearly promoted the continuous growth of pharmacy leaders; drug Net sales emphasizes that offline supervision is at the core to enable pharmacies to usher in a new revaluation of retail value. In the long run, the pharmacy's leading growth is decisive and continuous, which is the cradle of slow-moving stocks. medicine Under the background of the obvious differentiation of the industry structure, pharmacy The sector deserves a higher valuation premium. It is recommended that long-term high-quality companies with high boom segmentation be proposed. Specifically, retail pharmacies will benefit from accelerating consolidation and prescription outflows in the long term and are expected to continue growing; secondly, performance growth is highly deterministic and Reasonable valuation of the 'big medical insurance' benefit of the era; Finally, we can focus on the consumption upgrade trend of the medical sector and the accelerated adoption of the inspection group procurement model.
Valuation switch to defend as attack
As of last Friday's close, based on the TTM holistic method (excluding negative values), the overall price-earnings ratio of the pharmaceutical industry was 37.36 times, which is relatively low in history. Compared with the overall A-shares, the premium rate of the financial industry was excluded by 32.72%, and the premium level was also Historical lows.
In terms of performance, as of March 24, a total of 46 listed companies in the pharmaceutical biotechnology industry released the 2017 annual report. Among them, there are 39 companies with a positive year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to listed companies, accounting for approximately 84.78 of the issuing company. %.
Southwest Securities believes that at the beginning of each year, it is the best time to switch valuations. In the pharmaceutical industry, PE valuation was approximately 29 times in 2018, but it is highly cost-effective relative to other sectors in the consumer sector. In addition, public funds are relatively low in the allocation of medicines, and public offerings at the end of 2017 The fund's ratio of positions to drugs is approximately 6.6% (net of medical funds), and although it has recently improved, it is still at a relatively low level.
Soochow Securities believes that the emotional level analysis, the next month is the key period of the game between China and the US, financial markets will focus on risk aversion, may wish to focus on the pharmaceutical sector. Configuration level, due to the current market environment, the uncertainty increases, the market The demand for defense is strong, especially the current allocation ratio of other defense plates such as food and beverages and household appliances is already at a high level, so the defense properties of medicines are further manifested. At the fundamental level, the pharmaceutical industry ushered in an upward turning point in 2018.
Since 2017, the profit growth rate of the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry has risen significantly. The upward trend of the economy has been remarkable. At the same time, the growth logic of the pharmaceutical industry has been strengthened. With the adjustment of the medical insurance list, Bidding With the landing, the fee control policy is drawing to a close. Consensus evaluation has increased market concentration, and innovative drugs and other policies that guide industrial upgrading have opened up the growth space for the pharmaceutical industry.
