Ten Years: Home Appliances, Crossing 'Cattle Bear'
In the 2008-2017 decade, the Chinese economy experienced three rounds of complete real estate downturns; In the ten years, Wind's full A rose +7.2%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 gains -24.5%. During this period, the CS appliance segment was +270%, including Gree +748 % Little Swan +493% Vantage +1016% Boss +674% Qingdao Haier +302% Supor +257% Hisense +201%, Midea Group recorded +464% earnings since its overall listing in 2013.
As a result, the market value of household appliance faucets in the past decade is called 'Crossbow'; the historical process is a bit turbulent, but even in the downturn period of real estate, the white board still has a relative probability of 66%.
How does the tightening of property policies affect the price of home appliances?
Recalling the real estate tightening policy since the eight countries in 2005, one week after its promulgation, the probability of absolute gains from the appliance sector was 50%, and the probability of relative return was 37.5%; and one month after the policy was issued, the household appliances recorded an absolute return. The probability is 62.5% and the relative return probability is 75%.
In terms of segmentation, whether it is absolute income or relative income, the 'most dragged leg' is the refrigerator and small household appliances. This empirical evidence seems to be common sense.
White Power has a relative return; Strong stocks have absolute gains. Since 2008, in the down cycle of the Three-wheeled Real Estate, the overall probability of home appliances gaining a relative return was 33% (2008 outperformed the market, 2012 and 13.12- 15.2 were weaker than the market but run Ping or better than the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300) White winning rate is 66%.
In 2008, A-shares and sands went down; Gree Electric Co., Ltd.'s market share increased its profitability by 60% in 2012; Hisense Electric Co., Ltd. under the concept of “living room economy” in 2015 was once an astonishing counterattack; the valuation of kitchen appliances represented by the owner’s appliance followed. The real estate cycle fluctuates greatly. From an expected perspective, in the three months before the decline in real estate sales, the probability of household appliances getting a relative return was 66%.
"The fog through the real estate cycle - replay notes"
1. Golden years of 2007-2011: The average compound growth rate of Baidu’s sales during this four-year period was +17.4% for air conditioners and +24.2% for washing machines, which was +14.2%. Excluding the favorable factor of lower base amount, and household appliances The implementation of the policy also has a certain relationship (home appliances to the countryside + TMs + energy-saving Huimin). In four years, there was a downturn in real estate in 2008, but ended the year-end, only air-conditioned domestic sales -7.2%.
2. Ups and downs in 2012-2016: In 2012, due to the flood disaster in 2011 and the decline in property prices since Q4 and the drop in home appliance policies, sales within the company were synchronised with property sales (small household appliances were not spared). In 2014-2016, Refrigerator sales demand for policy overdrafts fell for three consecutive years. Domestic washing machine sales in 2010 -0.2%, and then regained its upward trend. 2015.6-2016.6, air-conditioning domestic sales cut cliff-type decline (2014 real estate down + air conditioning to inventory cycle, the monthly maximum decline of more than 40% ), Then it started to rebound strongly in 2016. July.
The fluctuations in the real estate economy exceeded expectations, and raw material prices fluctuate more than expected
