Incident report : U.S. local time on Thursday at 12:30 noon, Trump signed a memorandum on China's trade, in addition to the tax on Chinese products worth over 10 billion U.S. dollars, mainly related to the increase of taxation scope, restrictions on Chinese investment, and reductions. Visa and so on.
Event Impact Area : Ranking of the degree of negative impact of trade protection from the Chinese industry: Steel> Chemicals> Other Metal Products> Paper Products, Rubber Products, Wood Products> Agricultural Products> Electrical and Mechanical Category, Textiles and Apparel. Rankings of Sensitivity of Chinese Exports to U.S. Exports For: Electronic equipment> Machinery and equipment> Apparel manufacturing> Metal products> Furniture> Chemicals> Plastics and rubber products> Food products (Based on the proportion of exports, if the United States initiates a full-scale, not industry-wide trade war, sensitivity Higher industries are more affected.)
Event impact analysis
Futures stock market influence : There is no winner in the trade war, and the short-term pressure on the stock market futures continues to improve for a long time. The global risk aversion has heated up. The Sino-US trade war is not only affecting Chinese companies. In fact, more U.S. companies will face great challenges from trade wars. The impact, 'moving the rock to your own feet', global economic integration, are inextricably linked. The plunge of US stocks yesterday was the best proof.
Domestic industry influence and coping strategies : China will actively take measures to cope with the challenges. It has announced that it intends to impose tariffs on certain products imported from the United States, involving US exports to China of approximately US$3 billion. At present, most of the aforementioned taxable products remain on 'agricultural products', and China's follow-up is not ruled out. It is possible that further countermeasures will be imposed on the United States' tariff collection, including the areas of 'cars, aircrafts, agricultural products, and imported photographic papers'. Of course, China will also consider its own inflation for restricting the import of agricultural products.
Impact on the plastics (polypropylene) industry : Due to the impact of the above time on the domestic financial sector, the futures market opened downwards and market sentiment was suppressed. At the same time, the peers in the domestic petrochemical industry were under pressure and the ex-factory price was downgraded unplannedly. This indicates that this news has begun to affect the plastics industry, especially Propylene products. Although the impact of the plastics industry in the current round of trade wars is ranked behind, the impact of futures and stock markets will be even more severe than that of the industry. At the same time, orders and production of related domestic export-related trading companies will be weighed down to varying degrees, and market sentiments and operations will be suppressed. The tactics have produced great contrasts. For example, generic wire drawing in the PP pellet market was pressured by petrochemicals and futures, and the market price fell below the 8,500 yuan/ton mark and continued to decline. Although some downstream factories have appropriated their positions, it is difficult to quickly consume the two oil inventories. Pressure, short-term market rebound pressure again upgrade.