1. The investment cost of OLED production line is still high; the mainstream status of LCD remains unchanged;
At the end of 2017, the layout of OLEDs by major panel makers has become the focus of attention in the industry. However, due to the high cost of its production lines and LCD's efforts to improve technology, LCDs will continue to dominate the market for a short period of time. .
Organic Light Emitting Diodes (OLEDs) have a high-contrast, high-colored display characteristic, and their sound potential gradually increases. With the use of OLED panels, Apple's iPhone X, either in large or small sizes In the market, the volume of OLED panels has been pushed to the highest peak ever.
However, less than six months after the launch of the iPhone X, the rumors of discontinued production were reported due to unsatisfactory sales. In addition, liquid crystal display (LCD) camps actively developed various technologies to improve color contrast and achieve results. The special advantages of OLED panels Already faded. At present, LCDs will continue to dominate the status quo in both short- and long-term markets.
2018 Small Size OLED Terrorism Oversupply
After using the OLED panel on Apple's iPhone X, all the manufacturers were quick to invest in small-size OLED panels. However, the sales status of iPhone X was not as enthusiastic as expected. More rumours were about to stop production in 2018. If manufacturers in China continue to invest In the case of LG's joining the war situation, there may be an oversupply of small-size OLED panels in 2018 (Figure 1).
Figure 1 The sales of the iPhone X are not as enthusiastic as expected, but rumours about the discontinued production in 2018 are also coming. Image Source: Apple
Lin Zemin, manager of the Industrial and Economic Research Center of ITRI (Figure 2), pointed out that at present, the iPhone X is still the largest user of small-size OLED screens. However, the sales volume of the iPhone X is much lower than the industry’s expectations. From the fourth quarter of 2017, it will be able to See the relevant suppliers are constantly under revision of the production value forecast. At present, it can be seen that manufacturers at least reduced the projected output value by more than 25%.
Fig. 2 Lin Zemin, manager of the Institute of Industry, Production and Technology, pointed out that from the fourth quarter of 2017 onwards, it will be seen that the relevant suppliers are constantly reviewing the output value of the iPhone X.
In 2017, Samsung almost completely monopolized the market supply of small-sized OLED panels, which accounted for 92% of the production capacity. However, the largest user, the iPhone X, did not sell as expected. It can be seen from the output value disclosed by the relevant suppliers. The output is being greatly reduced, and even the fastest will be discontinued in the second quarter of 2018. Therefore, in 2018, Samsung's small-sized OLED panel may face the oversupply dilemma.
As China's BOE and LG invest in the small-size OLED market, even if they cannot immediately grab a certain market share, the pricing of Samsung will surely still be very strong. The market share and price of small-size OLEDs, It will probably be completely different from 2017's estimate.
Wide-gamut LCDs perform well
At present, in terms of the North American market, the cost of large-size OLED TV displays still needs 2 to 3 times that of LCDs. However, as the LCD camp is actively improving its backlight technology, the display quality of LCDs has also been improved. According to the current international manufacturers in each In terms of the show's display, in fact, the wide-gamut technology-enhanced LCD TV performance is no worse than OLED. According to this situation, it seems that the expansion of the panel factory's large-size OLED production line does not seem necessary.
Although large-size OLED TV displays can be made thinner and contrasted with higher performance, consumers' thin and light requirements for home displays are not as stringent as those for mobile devices. Lin Zemin pointed out that Samsung’s recent deployment of large-size displays, It is still focused on actively investing in various technologies on the LCD panel to improve the contrast and color performance. The performance and sales of its products are not inferior to those of the OLED TVs introduced by LG. Therefore, from the perspective of consumer reaction and vendor strategy, it is short-term. It may not be possible to see large-size OLED TV displays reaching popularity in the home area.
Lin Zemin estimates that even by 2020, the market share of OLED large-size TV monitors will probably not exceed 5%. The TV monitor market will continue to be dominated by LCDs in recent years.
Direct type LED backlight into LCD mainstream
The market research agency IHS pointed out that the percentage of direct-lit LED-backlit TVs continued to climb after reaching 69% in the second quarter of 2016; and it reached 77% in the same period in 2017, and reached a new high. Direct-type LED backlight technology by 2014 After the introduction of various kinds of TV sets in the year, the market share of edge-lit LED backlights is declining year by year. The direct-type LED backlight technology has now become the mainstream of the market (Figure 3).
Figure 3 Direct-type LED backlight technology has now become the mainstream of the market. Source: IHS Markit (1/2018)
The difference between direct-lit LED backlights and edge-lit LED backlights lies in the layout of LED dies. Direct-back backlights are relatively inexpensive to manufacture and require no light guides. They also have the advantage of local control. However, the direct The thickness of the LED backlight structure will be thicker than that of the sidelight type, so the edge-lit LED backlight architecture still has the advantage of thinness.
MicroLED stationed in LCD backlight applications
On the other hand, MicroLED display technology has also attracted much attention recently, but its technology maturity has not yet reached the level of mass production. In the short term, the display technology of the consumer electronics market will still be dominated by LCD and OLED. However, there are currently The industry began to apply MicroLEDs to LCD backlights, hoping to achieve High Dynamic Range Imaging (HDR) characteristics. However, compared with traditional direct-lit LED backlights, the production cost and power consumption of MicroLED backlights are much higher. Become a technical bottleneck to be solved.
IHS technical analysis director Xie Qinyi pointed out that the industry generally believes that the MicroLED backlight technology can simultaneously achieve high performance HDR and ultra-thin display appearance, so the current public panel manufacturers are actively introducing MicroLED backlight technology into LCD monitors.
Xie Qinyi believes that because of the local dimming characteristic of the MicroLED backlight technology, the LCD display can achieve better HDR, and the ultra-small LED die can also achieve more uniform light distribution than the traditional LED backlight. However, The biggest production bottleneck of MicroLED technology is still a huge amount of transfer technology. At present, the technology still needs further breakthrough. Therefore, the current production time of MicroLED is about 10 times longer than the traditional direct-type LED backlight, which also leads to a rise in cost.
In addition, the current introduction of MicroLED backlights into the LCD may encounter the following problems: First, MicroLED backlights require more LED chips than traditional direct LED backlight technology, and therefore consume more power. David Hsieh Further examples, 75吋 8K TVs need about 1,000 direct-type LED chips as light sources, while MicroLEDs will need at least 70,000 chips, and the power consumption will be 1.5 times that of traditional direct-type LED backlights. Due to the huge number of MicroLED chips, the mechanism of heat dissipation It will also become the key. On the other hand, although Color Binning is not a major issue, since the MicroLED backlight is white, there is no color control function and brightness uniformity may be affected.
8K resolution content transmission/storage challenge
As technology has advanced, the demand for resolution in the panel industry has shifted from 4K to 8K. No matter what the panel technology is, 8K resolution is the main sprint target. If end-users want to purchase 55-inch or more home TVs in 2018, All 4K products are on the market. Currently, 8K resolution is a major development aspect that all hardware companies actively invest in. However, due to the higher quality requirements of 8K resolution, data storage and transmission will also bring challenges. In the situation where the content industry has not been able to keep up with the situation, we must wait until the popularization of 8K TV before 2020 to make further progress.
Lin Zemin pointed out that to make high-resolution technologies universal, not only panelists need to reach their technical level, but also they need to support the entire ecosystem. Entertainment industry has only been able to build 4K photography equipment. The entire Hollywood industry can now support 4K. Content production. Only the content of sports events, due to the high speed, high real-time requirements, the number of frames per second requires nearly 1,000, so the resolution is easily considered secondary considerations.
Although the current 4K ecosystem has generally been completed, due to the higher quality requirements for high-speed imagery in sports, compared to the production of general video content, it will cost more to replace equipment with 4K resolution. Lin Zemin Further For example, the speed of a baseball ball is about 150~160 kilometers, and the speed of a tennis ball is more likely to reach 300 kilometers. For sporting events, the path of a high-speed ball can't appear afterimages, which is more important than high resolution. With high-speed motion and 4K image quality, storage and transmission costs will increase dramatically.
4K ecosystem is in place. 8K is still in the stage of panel technology display. It needs to be upgraded with content production equipment before it can be further popularized. It is worth noting that more forward-looking content manufacturers such as Netflix may be the first to introduce 8K resolution. Video (Figure 4).
Figure 4 A more forward-looking content manufacturer such as Netflix may be the first to introduce an 8K resolution video.
Image Credit: Netflix New Electronics
2. TV panel Q1 fell by more than 7%;
In March, the demand for TV panels was weak. TV panel prices decreased in March. Overall, TV panel prices in the first quarter fell as much as 7% to 10%. Panel prices such as 32%, 43%, and 65% were close to the total cost. In April, demand for panel pull goods began to pick up. There are next week Golden Week and World Cup stocking demand. In April, the panel price decline is expected to shrink. In May, it bottomed out.
China Yuanchun sales are not as expected, compared with the double-digit recession in the same period of last year, and overseas markets also slack season for boiled fish, the brand shipment power is insufficient. In the first quarter of the next season, brand manufacturers keep stockpiling conservatively, and some brands reduce panel purchase demand , so the TV panel is weak.
Sigmaintell's survey pointed out that TV panel prices will maintain a downward trend in March. From the perspective of various dimensions, the demand for 32-inch TV panels declined, and the supply and demand were obviously excessive. In February, the price dropped by US$2. The price drop in March expanded to At 3 U.S. dollars, the drop in the first quarter was about 5% to 7%.
In terms of medium-size TV panels, 39.5吋 to 43吋 panels, the terminal market has little sales force, weak demand, and loose supply and demand. With 40吋 panels, some panel makers have relatively high inventories, and prices will continue to fall by 3~4 dollars, while 43吋. The panel price maintained a decline of US$5. From 49吋 to 50吋, although 50吋 panel inventory declined, the inventory level remained high. It is expected that the price will remain at US$4 in March. 49吋 is similar to the 50吋 panel price. The downward pressure continued and the price maintained a decline of US$5. The cumulative decline in the size of the mid-size panel was as high as 7% to 10% in the first quarter.
From the perspective of large-size TV panels, the 55-inch panel slowed down due to the slowdown in the stocking pace of the brand, and the average price in the market declined slightly by US$1 in February. The decline slightly increased to US$3 in March. 65-inch stocking demand is weak, and because BOE is weak. The 10.5-generation plant was put into operation, and the price pressure was very high. In March, the price maintained a decline of more than US$10. The price of large-sized TV panels fell by more than 7% in the first quarter.
TV panel prices fell for 3 quarters in a row. Some of the sizes were like 32 baht, 43 baht panels and so on. The prices were all close to the total cost. The 65-inch panel fell sharply for six consecutive months, and the price has fallen below the total cost. Panel demand warms up, panel price decline is expected to slow down.
3. Apple's layout can be curled screen, the material shape has bright spots;
Apple's deep plowing can curl screen technology. Foreign media reports, Apple's design can be curled screen, like cylindrical hollow shape, but also like a triangle, including liquid metal glass and other crystal clear material.
The foreign technology website, Patently Apple, reported that a patent shows that Apple is deeply cultivating a curlable screen design. The relevant screen material consists of liquid metal glass.
The report pointed out that Apple's design of a rollable screen can be rolled into a cylindrical hollow shape like paper, or it can be folded into a triangular shape. From the material point of view, the report points out that sapphire substrates or other crystalline materials and transparent materials can also be included. Used to compose hollow shape screen designs.
Apple and South Korea's Samsung have been buckling in the technology of their mobile phone screens. Foreign media reported previously that Samsung's new generation of Note smart phone screens may adopt a curled design. The screen is not only displayed on the front of the camera, but also can be extended to bend. The back of the fuselage display, so that the entire front and back of the fuselage, has a screen display.
Apple also did not make much effort to actively invest in technology that can fold iPhone. Foreign media previously reported that Apple has developed a scrollable technology patent that can be rolled up on an iPhone, iPad or iPod, and can include dual lenses and microphones.
Apple also announced the development of flexible organic light-emitting diode (OLED) screens and flexible alloy technology that allows the iPhone to fold outwards and fit well.
The report pointed out that in order to make the folded iPhone workable, Apple relies on a variety of bendable component designs. In addition to the flexible OLED screen with a metal structure, Apple is also developing flexible nickel-titanium shape memory alloy technology, and other Including bendable chemical polymer technology.
4. Apple's magnetic connector conveys new ideas, metal glass has a look;
Apple made new progress in the application of materials. Foreign media reported that Apple actively upgraded the quality of its magnetic connectors and did not rule out its use in iPhone products. Apple also reportedly promoted nickel-based metallic glass materials.
The foreign technology website, Patently Apple, reported that Apple has made new advances in magnetic connectors, allowing the connectors to be more secure, easier to manufacture, and improving the performance of the connectors. In the future, Apple will have the opportunity to replace the existing MagSafe 2 series power converter sockets.
MagSafe is a power plug designed by Apple. It is applied to MacBook laptops. MagSafe is fixed by magnetic force so that it can be pulled by force. For example, when someone picks up a wire, it can be safely removed from the socket without causing damage or falling. Computer on the table.
Apple continues to lay out connector technology applications. Foreign media previously reported that in the future Apple may introduce a solution that allows multiple devices to connect to the Smart Connector port at the same time. This solution will be implemented by stacking ports. Way to achieve.
The market further speculated that future MagSafe upgrades may be applied to iPhone products.
In addition, Apple also has new advances in nickel-based metal glass technology. Through the licensing of Glassimetal Technology, related metal glass materials can be used in smart phones, digital display screens, monitor screens, game consoles, and keyboards.
Apple is cultivating a new generation of metal material technology. Foreign media previously reported that Apple has developed a customized metal glass alloy material that can be used in watch components, medical implants, implants, magnet cores, sports equipment and other fields.
Foreign media website MacRumors and Chinese media reported in March last year that since 2010, Apple has regularly updated its exclusive patents on liquid metals every year. However, how to use this patent is still unknown.
5. Hon Hai panel set up factory
The panel layout of Hon Hai Group in the US and China did not stop due to the warming of the trade war between China and China. Among them, Hon Hai Chairman Guo Tingming’s personally invested Guangzhou Zengcheng Chao Shihao 10.5 plant has recently completed project contracting and will start production next year. It is also promoting the opening of the Weizhou plant in the United States next year.
According to industry analysts, the US-China trade war has prospered until it reaches the electronics industry. At a time when BOE and China Star Optoelectronics Co., Ltd. and other land-based panel makers are growing, whether the Trump Government will suppress the land-based panel will cause concern. The United States and China are betting with each other in a synchronized manner. They can avoid potential threats in due course and make flexible deployments through the United States and China.
Economic Daily provided
The panel factories planned by Hon Hai Group in the United States and China are the most advanced 10.5 generation plants in the industry. Among them, the 10.5 generation factory of Chaoshijing in Guangzhou Zengcheng is expected to invest RMB 61 billion (approximately NT$282.1 billion). Sharp-led design and planning, and mobilized all resources of the Hon Hai Group to assist.
According to sources in the industry, the Chaozhou-based civil engineering project is in full swing, and the relevant contractors in the near-term cleanrooms and other plants have announced one after another and received notices of project awards. They will be completed by the end of this year. According to official Guangzhou information, the SuperVision will be in 2019. In production, it is estimated that it will produce 90,000 pieces of glass substrates per month, and it will create an annual production value of RMB 92 billion.
It is understood that Hon Hai Group China and the United States 10.5 generation panel factory construction team, is a group of honored chairman of the "Veteran Panel Veteran" and Hon Hai Group Advisors Duan Xingjian responsible for overseeing the army, led the group panel industry soldiers together Build.
Next, the Hon Hai Group's 10.5-generation plant construction team will soon be transferred to Weizhou, USA. In April, the United States will start construction work in civil engineering in the United States. In response to relevant developments, Gou et al. Low-key said "to be kept confidential" without further details of the schedule.
Hon Hai Group previously disclosed that the 10.5-generation panel factory in Weizhou will set up a factory and it will construct more than ten buildings, including office areas and restaurants, in two phases on the planned site east of Interstate 94 (I-94). Apron, etc., where the assembly plant is expected to start in January 2019. Economic Daily