1. Apple was named by the Ministry of Commerce: You are the biggest beneficiaries of trade facilitation;
Tencent Technology News March 25 news 2018 China Development Forum held today in Diaoyutai State Guesthouse, the theme of this forum is 'New Age China'.
At the China Development High-Level Forum, Wang Shouwen, deputy head of the Ministry of Commerce and deputy representative of international trade negotiations, said that together with other members of the WTO, we have promoted the conclusion of an agreement on WTO trade facilitation, which will reduce the global trade cost by 14%.
We have jointly promoted the cancellation of agricultural export subsidies under the WTO framework. The international agricultural product trade environment will be fair.
We successfully concluded the expansion of information technology negotiations with other WTO members and eliminated the tariffs on 201 IT products.
Like Apple's Cooke, you are the biggest beneficiaries.
2. The trade war, why did the Chinese and Americans open up the list - most people think wrong;
With regard to the Sino-US trade war, many people have seen this picture in the circle of friends:
Online, from the media on a carnival, the United States exports fruits, nuts, pork, scrap metal, China tax on these products. China's export industrial robots, new energy vehicles, aviation products, information technology, new materials, high-end medical equipment, the United States These products are taxed.
Since the media have clamored for themselves, which of China and the United States is like a developed country and which is like a developing country?
We need to clarify the information elements behind this list before we can make a correct judgment on the medium and long-term effects of the stock market.
After all, the short-term effects of the stock market have already come out, that is, the global stock market, including A-shares, has plunged. Investors have felt that this is not as simple as some people from the media or radicals say, as if China is lying down Can win.
It can be seen that the CSI 500 futures index has a larger decline than the spot price. The CSI 500 index's decline is 5.15%. The trend of the stock index futures reflects investors' cautious attitude towards the market outlook.
Why the United States Targets China's High-tech Industry
The United States signed a presidential memorandum on China's 'infringement of intellectual property rights', based on the report on China’s '301 investigation' published by the Office of Trade Representatives, instructing the relevant authorities to impose tariffs on products worth 60 billion U.S. dollars imported from China, and 1,300 product categories will be affected. Tariff impact.
China counterattacked for this purpose. The Ministry of Commerce issued a list of discontinuation concessions for US imports of steel and aluminum products 232 measures and solicited public opinions to impose tariffs on about US$3 billion of products imported from the United States.
In the first batch of trade wars between the two countries, let's first clarify why the United States is targeting high-tech industries. China is targeting low-tech industries such as agricultural products.
In the two product categories represented by agricultural products, seamless steel tubes, etc., the proportion of American exports to China is actually relatively low, not exceeding 4%. The types of products that have a real impact, such as automobiles, aircraft machinery, and electrical machinery, are only The United States exports heavy goods to China and has a high proportion of exports to China.
Similarly, look at China's entire imported product data for 2016: 40% are electromechanical products and their parts and components, and other things such as agricultural products, chemicals, and raw materials are mostly about 10%. In the same year, China’s exports, nearly half of the goods Electronic machinery products and their components, nearly a quarter of all kinds of light industrial products such as shoes and hats, toys.
Some high-tech industries and products have not been included in the US-US trade war list because of two reasons. One is that the United States has originally restricted the export of high-tech products to China; the other is that the United States has loosened its mouth. Obtained imported high-tech products. The former category did not exist originally, there was no issue listed on the trade war list; the latter category was imported technologies and products that were won through various negotiations. In order to punish the U.S. companies for making money, Into the list, when your government is silly?
The latest 'China asked the United States to effectively relax the export control of high-tech products to China' is a news release issued by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in November 2017.
In the diplomatic news of the national leaders, this sentence can be seen every year - 'The Chinese side demands that the US liberalize the export of high-tech products to China'. Similar sentences include 'I hope that the United States will substantially ease the restrictions on high-tech exports to China' as soon as possible. Occasionally, the news will change to 'The Ministry of Foreign Affairs: I hope the United States will continue to relax restrictions on the export of high-tech products to China'. The reason is that the United States has issued export permits for certain products to China, and China hopes to continue to relax.
The gap between high-tech industries in China and the United States is huge
Well, we have a clear understanding of the mystery of China and the United States opening up the list of 'why the United States is targeting high-tech industries, and China is targeting low-tech industries such as agricultural products'. Let’s take a look at the U.S. listed against China. Some industries:
Medical Device Industry: The top ten companies in the world, the United States have six, are in a monopoly position, and none of the top ones in China.
Agricultural machinery industry: In the United States, the top three countries in the world are all American companies. The largest company, Deere’s agricultural machinery business, has annual revenue exceeding US$20 billion. China’s well-executed agricultural machinery enterprises dragged on, and the business scale of Loeb Heavy Industries Less than one tenth of Deere.
Information technology industry: US and Japan dominated. Specifically, semiconductors: The top 10 in the world, do not see the names of companies in mainland China, Intel, Qualcomm, Broadcom occupy the top three. Semiconductor industry, the United States is the absolute overlord. The world's top ten Among semiconductor device manufacturers, there are four U.S. companies and five Japanese companies. Currently, China is strongly supporting the development of semiconductors, and Japanese semiconductor equipment manufacturers have made a lot of money. In terms of semiconductor materials, it is also dominated by Japan. Supercomputers and their Applications : The United States and Japan lead.
Industrial robotics industry: Japan's world. Robots four major families: Japan Fanuc, Yaskawa Electric, Sweden ABB, Germany KUKA. FANUC is the global industrial robot sales record holder, technical leader.
Aeronautical Equipment: For aircraft, the world’s first place is Boeing in the United States, with annual revenues exceeding US$90 billion. China’s benchmarking company is China’s commercial aircraft company. Currently, China’s COMAC C919 aircraft has not yet officially listed. The gap is relatively large. As far as spare parts and equipment are concerned, the core technology of aircraft engines is in the United States and Europe. China has not mastered it yet.
High-speed rail equipment: In this industry, China is leading the United States; in the process of high-speed rail construction in the past ten years, China has greatly improved its localization rate, and cooperated with high-tech products from Japan and Germany and other countries through project implementation, and some core technologies have been realized. Localization, there are still some of the most sophisticated technologies that are in Japan and European companies, but for the United States, our high-speed rail industry chain is leading.
Precision Instruments: The United States, Japan and Germany monopolized, mastered the core technologies of precision instrumentation in various segments of the global company, the United States 10, Japan 6, Germany 4, Britain 2. China did not The leading stock of the “Industry 4.0” concept stock for several years is Shenyang Machine Tool. Looking at the performance and technological R&D of Shenyang Machine Tool, you can feel how helpless this sector is.
The core meaning of the trade war: industrial upgrading and countermeasures
Some people may be puzzled. Since China's related industries do not export products that possess core technology, why is the United States listed on a single blow?
The fundamental purpose of the US trade war is to stop China’s industrial upgrading and technological advancement, and continue to maintain the global leadership of the US high-tech industry – instead of the various self-highs that we saw in our friends’ circles these days, we mistakenly believe that the Chinese economy and High-tech products have already competed or even replaced the United States with the United States. With this basic judgment, we can look to the future of China’s industrial policies, and lay out those industries that encourage and support those policies that have certain foundations and have the ability to replace imported high-tech industries.
In the long run, this trade war will also force deeper domestic reforms because we have a large number of industries, engage in domestic protection, have a lot of approvals, and foreign capital is banned. It seems that we have protected the domestic industry. We can have access to the WTO for so many years. Many The industry is still not making progress, and it is far from the expectations of the people.
In the case of domestic cars, the auto industry has high tariffs. Buying cars in China is much more expensive than in Europe and the United States; foreign car companies that don't own joint ventures cannot afford technology, but the core technology of the auto industry is still largely unavailable in China. In the following, China’s high-speed rail equipment industry chain, which was originally lagging behind and has not yet received extreme care, has used some of the core technologies in various forms of cooperation in the rapid development of high-speed railway construction, leveraging the needs of foreign leaders in capturing the Chinese market. , The localization rate has been greatly improved. This contrasts with the auto industry. It shows that things are artificial and it also shows the need for transformation of external pressure.
At the beginning of this trade war, if China's countermeasures are upgraded, it will not be impossible for many large industries to be affected. The trade war will force domestic reforms, upgrade technology, and strengthen import substitution. It is expected to be the mainstream of industrial policy.
Where is the point of industrial substitution?
The point for investors to pay attention to industrial substitution is not the list of the United States to open the United States, but the list of China's exports to China. It can be said that these industries opened by the United States are the dominant industries of the United States (the United States The government and the industry are not stupid, and the inclusion of an industry with high reliance on the Chinese side is not an issue, but China has provided basic products and services. This move by the United States is to curb the development of China's related industries from the low end. High-end extension.
To sum up, for a long time, the stock market will be deeply affected by this trade war, because the domestic industry policy that China will take to cope with the international situation and the international economic environment will form a chain reaction and will eventually react to the stock market. For the stock market, the most important logic is industrial substitution.
Many Chinese ministries and commissions put words that are unprecedented in terms of toughness compared to previous news. However, from the countermeasures they have taken, they obviously want to control the situation and not worsen the trade war.
Whether the trade war is ending after a period of stalemate or is finally in full swing, this path will not be completed for industrial upgrading and import substitution.
Import substitution concept stocks will be a mainline that can be continuously followed. (Data Po Happy) Securities Times
3. What are the implications of the Sino-US trade warfare? Listed companies have responded;
Zheng Jianxin, a reporter from the Economic Observer Online, started the Sino-U.S. trade war, sparking thousands of waves. The stock market has direct volatility, affecting a wide range of listed companies.
In the situation where the A shares floated green, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sectors reported an increase. Some agricultural companies said that the trade war will have a positive impact on the company.
China and U.S. trade wars respond directly to the stock market
On March 22, Washington time, US President Trump signed the president’s memorandum. According to the results of the '301 investigation', it will impose large-scale tariffs on imports from China and limit Chinese companies’ investment in M&A. Trump signed the White House. Before speaking to the media, the scale of Chinese commodities involved in taxation could reach 60 billion U.S. dollars -- an increase of 10 billion U.S. dollars from the scale of the U.S.
According to the memorandum signed on that day, the U.S. Trade Representative Office will formulate a specific plan to impose tariffs on Chinese goods within 15 days. At the same time, the U.S. Trade Representative Office will also sue China to the World Trade Organization on related issues. In addition, the U.S. Department of the Treasury will A plan was introduced within days to restrict Chinese companies from investing in mergers and acquisitions of US companies.
The Chinese side immediately responded. In the morning of March 23rd, Beijing time, the Ministry of Commerce issued a list of suspension and concession products for the US import of steel and aluminum products 232 measures, and solicited public opinions to impose tariffs on some products imported from the United States. To balance the losses caused by the United States adding tariffs to imported steel and aluminum products to China’s interests.
The list tentatively contains seven categories and 128 tax products. According to the 2017 statistics, it involves the United States exporting about US$3 billion to China.
The first part consists of a total of 120 taxes involving US$977 million in US exports to China, including fresh fruit, dried fruit and nut products, wine, modified ethanol, American ginseng, seamless steel pipe and other products. It is proposed to impose a 15% tariff. In the second part, there are a total of 8 taxes involving USD 1.992 billion in US exports to China, including pork and products, recycled aluminum, etc., and a 25% tariff is proposed.
According to the statistics of China International Capital Corporation, China's exports to the United States are consumer goods, while the US exports to China are partial capital goods and technology products. Sino-U.S. trade has certain complementarity. China's exports to the United States are mainly mechanical equipment (based on the classification may be mainly home appliances , electronics and other categories, accounting for 48% of total exports, and miscellaneous products (12%), textiles (10%), metal products (7%) and so on.
The US exports to China are mainly concentrated in machinery and equipment (30%), transportation equipment (20%), chemical products (10%), plastics and rubber products (5%), etc.
On the 23rd, the Shanghai Composite Index, the Hang Seng Index and Hong Kong Stocks Hang Seng Index all opened lower, with the three major indices falling by more than 3%. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.39% to close at 3,122.76 points; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 4.02% to close at 1,0439.99. The point; GEM closed at 1726.02 points, down 5.02%.
In the A-share market, only wind CITIC level agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sectors rose by 2.07%, Dongling International, Xinwufeng, Dunhuang Seed Industry, and Agricultural Development Seed and other 12 stocks all went daily limit.
After the first round of counterattacks was announced, Chen Welfare, Director of the Department of Legal Affairs of the Ministry of Commerce of China, stated that it will pay close attention to the progress of the 301 investigation. 'Once China implements relevant measures, China will resolutely take off'. The Chinese ambassador to the United States, Cui Tiankai, is on the embassy's Facebook page. The video released in the speech said: 'We do not want to fight trade wars, but we are not afraid of trade wars' and 'will definitely fight back and retaliate. If we want to play fiercely, China will escort to see who is more persistent'.
Listed companies have responded
In response to the impact of the Sino-US trade war on listed companies, several listed companies responded interactively.
According to Hengrun, since the establishment of the company, the main export destination of the company has been the EU countries and Japan, and its import trade policy has been relaxed. The company’s exports to the United States in 2017 accounted for a relatively small proportion of total sales, and therefore the company’s future performance. There will be no major impact. The company currently has a good business development and can effectively respond to changes in trade policies. If the company’s main products are within the scope of US taxation, the company will reduce the United States by aggressively expanding new customers and other countermeasures. Imposing the adverse effects of tariffs.
Loncin GM said that in 2017, the company’s exports to the United States accounted for about 10% of the company’s total revenue for the year. The export of US products was mainly for the US OEMs to provide OEM/ODM non-road small petrol engines. (Products) and small gasoline generator sets (terminal products), two invention patents independently developed by the company, 'Generator Inverter Frequency Multiplication Method and Device' and 'Common Gasoline Engine', were authorized by the US State Intellectual Property Office, and the company’s products did not exist Intellectual property disputes, The specific impact of this incident on the company will be determined after the United States publishes a detailed list of specific commodities.
Rebecca said that although the company's exports to the United States account for a large proportion, the wig segmentation industry is relatively niche and does not constitute a competitive relationship with US companies, and therefore it will not affect the company's business. In the past years, the United States has also made great trade with China. 1. But it has never been a shock to wigs.
Mornington Technology stated that about 20% of the company's products are sold abroad. The major overseas markets include India, Southeast Asia, and the European Union. At present, the company’s major exporting countries or regions have not set any special trade barriers for the company’s products. This trade dispute, The impact of the company is relatively small. Baosteel Co., Ltd. stated that the number of products exported to the United States by the company is very limited, so Sino-US trade disputes have little impact on the company.
Agricultural companies responded relatively positively.
Oriental Group is a listed company with modern agriculture as the main industry. It has a large scale in agricultural and sideline products such as corn, soybeans, rice, and branded rice. The Oriental Group claims that the largest proportion of China's imported agricultural products to the United States is soybeans, etc. Products, China imposes tariffs on US agricultural products, which will help improve the competitiveness of related domestic agricultural industries and will also have a positive impact on company performance.
Hakoko said that the company does not grow soybeans and its raw materials for bean flakes come from external sources. The company's 2017 soybean processing business suffered a loss of 14.7082 million yuan, a loss of 9.131 million yuan from the same period last year.
Huaying Agriculture said that the company’s agricultural and sideline products are not exported to the United States at the same time, and the company is also actively studying the impact of related policies on the company.
4. The trade war hurts others and it is difficult to prevent the rise of China's science and technology
On March 22, Eastern Time, US President Trump signed a memorandum, based on the report of the China 301 investigation report issued by the USTR (USTR), which instructed the relevant authorities to impose restrictions on China. Trump said that taxation is involved. China's merchandise can reach 60 billion U.S. dollars, and 'this is just the beginning'. From the contents of the memorandum, the U.S. is targeting industries such as aerospace, communications, industrial robots and new energy vehicles.
On March 23, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hua Chunying stated at a regular press conference that the United States can worry about the development of science and technology in China. However, it is unreasonably accusatory and unreasonable. It is not a measure that should be taken as the largest country in the world. It is also unacceptable to the Chinese side.
Regarding the recent Sino-U.S. trade dispute, Simon Baptist, chief global economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), an important think tank of the British Economist Group, stated in a report to the First Financial Reporter that in any case, China will become a technology giant in the fourth industrial revolution (for example, in artificial intelligence, robotics, and automation): 'The U.S. move may slow down this process, but it cannot stop the process.'
China responds positively
At the press conference of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Hua Chunying said that the United States must understand one thing, that is, the United States is indeed an innovating country in the world today, but that does not mean that innovation and intellectual property can only be a 'patent' of the United States. She said that China’s innovative achievements do not rely on stealing, neither does it rely on looting, but more than 1.3 billion Chinese people rely on wisdom and sweat to fight out, 'I hope the US will have a clear understanding of this'.
Hua Chunying also quoted the “World Intellectual Property Indicators” report issued by the World Intellectual Property Organization at the end of last year, showing that the number of invention patent applications received by the State Intellectual Property Office of China exceeded 1.3 million, exceeding the United States, Japan, South Korea, and the European Patent Office. And said that China is expected to become the world’s largest international patent applicant in the next three years. China is firmly implementing an innovation-driven development strategy. Everyone has seen that China is already in the world of high-speed rail, quantum communications, and electronic payments. Leading level.
It should be pointed out that the Ministry of Commerce announced on the 23rd the list of suspended concessions for US imports of steel and aluminum products 232 measures and solicited public opinions to impose tariffs on some products imported from the United States in order to balance the Aluminium products impose tariffs on losses caused by Chinese interests. The list tentatively contains seven categories and 128 tax products. According to the 2017 statistics, it involves US exports to China worth about US$3 billion.
However, the list is for the United States steel and aluminum tax, rather than responding to the '301 investigation'. For the future, Chen Welfare, Director of the Bureau of the Law and the Law of the Ministry of Commerce, stated on the 23rd that the U.S. 301 survey ignores WTO rules and ignores China’s reality. Regardless of the nature of the mutual benefit and win-win outcome of Sino-U.S. economic and trade relations, we are fully prepared and fully prepared. We will pay close attention to the progress and carefully evaluate it. Once China’s interests are compromised, China will resolutely take action.
U.S. can relax control over China
In the United States, Trump thinks that the trade deficit between China and the United States is out of control. He said: 'Although some people say that there are only 375 billion U.S. dollars, there are many ways to look at this figure, but anyway, this is history in any country. The biggest trade deficit that has emerged. '
In response to the issue of trade balance, Chinese Ministry of Commerce Minister Zhong Shan said at the press conference of the 2018 National Two Conferences that there are differences between China and the United States. The Statistical Working Group of China and the United States conducts a comparative study each year on the differences in China-US trade statistics. This working group is composed of experts from government agencies and other experts. According to the calculation of this working group, the official statistics of the United States on trade deficit with China are overestimated by about 20% each year.
Zhong Shan pointed out that this working group has been for many years. The results of last year's working group analysis showed that the U.S. deficit was overestimated by 21%. The trade imbalance between China and the US is structural. China has a surplus in trade in goods, and the U.S. There is a trade surplus in service trade. He believes that trade competitiveness is fundamentally the competitiveness of the industry.
The trade imbalance between China and the United States is also related to the high-tech exports to China by the United States. A report from a U.S. research institute shows that if the U.S. exports to China are relaxed, the trade deficit with China can be reduced by about 35%.
Hua Chunying stated that in trade, it is unrealistic and unreasonable to pursue full equivalence. As you can imagine, if the US side asks China to buy what it wants to sell, it refuses to sell it. It is fair for China to buy, but also to accuse China of trade imbalances. Is this fair? How many Chinese toys can we afford to buy on a Boeing? Or if the United States buys as many Boeing airplanes, the United States will Should I buy the same number of C919?
Hua Chunying also stated that the Chinese side still hopes that both sides can calmly sit down, seek constructive dialogue and consultations, and seek a solution to mutual benefit and mutual benefit in the spirit of equality, mutual benefit, and mutual respect. This is also China and the United States as the world’s leader. The two major economies and the first largest economy should either take the lead in maintaining the stability of the world economy or play an active role, which is also in line with the common interests of both countries.
U.S. enterprises losers
When asked how to estimate the Chinese response, Navalo, director of the White House National Trade Committee, said that China’s benefit in US-China trade is much higher than that of the US, which means that it will be difficult for China to make a decision to retaliate against the United States. Hua Chunying claimed that the words of the relevant U.S. parties are obviously 'somewhat arrogant,' misjudged the situation, completely underestimated the Chinese’s determination and ability to defend their legitimate interests, and the price that the U.S. side must pay for its waywardness.
Hua Chunying stated that we have repeatedly emphasized that the essence of China-US economic and trade relations is mutual benefit and win-win results.
A very simple example is that the US imports a large amount of low-cost labor-intensive products from China, which greatly reduces the cost of consumption for American consumers, enhances the 'consumer surplus', and actually improves the welfare of American consumers. On the macro level, it also helps the United States to curb inflation. She said that therefore, the United States will greatly benefit from both the micro and macro levels.
Baptiste said that China’s initial response to the product list will be a minimal retaliation, indicating that China will be more inclined to have a controlled trade war and control the degree of counter-measures to the extent permitted by the WTO. However, if the U.S. moves to upgrade, China will obviously leave behind.
As mentioned earlier, the U.S. side’s trade war goal has subtly avoided its own weaknesses: electronic consumer products. However, Baptiste pointed out that excluding consumer goods such as smart phones from tariffs will not result in U.S. consumption. Immunity to rising prices: China is so indispensable in the global value chain that a large part (but not all) of tariff effects will be passed on to US consumers.
'U.S. companies will be bigger losers.' Baptiste pointed out that tariffs will not be an effective way to reduce bilateral trade deficits; and because of Trump’s increased government spending policy, this means that in the short term it is possible There are more imported products from China.
Baptiste also said that for the United States, to achieve economic recovery still depends on automation: This policy combination of tax reduction and reduction of manufacturing workers will bring production closer to the source of demand, and for many companies, this Both mean production in the United States.