- Moda Kang, March 26, 2018
The trade war between China and the United States triggered by Trump was launched. There are many discussions in the industry. Since no one can predict how long the war will be and how long it will last, it is undeniable that it is a political contest between China and the United States.
In this trade war, the semiconductor industry is one of its most important inclusions, and China also regards the development of the semiconductor industry as one of the important national policies. Therefore, the contest between the two sides in the semiconductor field will become more intense. It also proves that the United States is very afraid of China. The success of the semiconductor industry reflects that our road is going right this time.
Grow in battle
Since the United States insists on 'unilateralism' will not give up easily, and China must grow and rise, trade war is inevitable. In the semiconductor field, we should regard it as one of the compulsory courses in industrial growth. So be sure to adapt to it, become familiar with it, and constantly improve yourself.
For the Chinese semiconductor industry, it is still a 'newcomer' and a 'follower' role. It needs to integrate into global development to learn how to fight a trade war.
From another point of view, fighting a trade war is not entirely a 'bad thing'. For example, the 'two-outside' dilemma that has always been solved in the development of China's semiconductor industry may be an excellent opportunity. Therefore, not only ideologically, but also In terms of actions, we must pay full attention to it, and at the same time, we must quickly change our strategy and shift the industrial development from the increase in the number of industries to the improvement of the quality and content of the industry. Strengthening research and development, supporting the industrial chain, and so on, are the correct path. One of the domestically produced semiconductor equipment and materials is that they must first improve the product's performance and quality. However, chip manufacturers must be enthusiastic and believe that it supports it. Only in this way can we solve China Semiconductor more thoroughly. The problem of autonomy in the development of the industry.
In addition, if advanced process technology is disrupted, it is also good news for SMIC and other plants. It will accelerate the development of 14-nanometer technology to meet the needs of the domestic market.
To fully estimate the characteristics of this trade war, it has a swift, tight, and sometimes high, low and high period. For the Chinese semiconductor industry, one is not afraid, the second is a calm battle, and it is necessary to grow rapidly in the battle. Improve yourself.
China's semiconductor industry will be affected
The United States has initiated this trade war for a long time. However, one of the main reasons is that so-called protection of intellectual property rights is indispensable for the Chinese semiconductor industry. In addition, from the recent US CFIUS for China, including semiconductor shares including Chinese shares, mergers The activity was totally rejected and it has been fully proved.
For China's semiconductor industry, it is first time that blind optimism is not desirable. It is really not time to say 'no'. The United States has to obstruct the progress of the Chinese semiconductor industry as one of its goals. Therefore, it is necessary to make the worst case. The ideological preparations and corresponding plans when they occurred. To think of the current situation compared to the 70s-80s of the last century, the development of the Chinese semiconductor industry was almost entirely dependent on self-reliance and development, and still made some progress, but now the industry The environment is now a thing of the past. China's semiconductor industry already has a certain strength and foundation, so we must be confident to face the battle.
However, due to the lack of advanced process technology in the development of China's semiconductor industry, and nearly 90% of advanced semiconductor equipment and materials still need to be imported, such grim facts lie ahead. The US’s desire to hinder the progress of our industry is likely to occur, such as Extending the approval time for import licenses for imported equipment will lead to delays and even suspension of several new chip production line projects in China. Therefore, the overall impact cannot be ignored.
It can be predicted that projects such as GF in Chengdu, its second 22-nanometer SOI technology, mass production in 2019, and ASML's EUV lithography machine exports to China etc. may be affected.
It is necessary to fully realize that the essence of this trade war is the strength of the two countries. The semiconductor industry is only one of its major concerns. Relatively speaking, China still has many opportunities for licensing and winning in other areas, but in semiconductors In the industry, it may be difficult to find even the 'back hand'.
For this trade war, it is estimated that it will not last long, because the business of many large US companies will be affected, but it may happen again after some time. Therefore, China's semiconductor industry must adjust its attitude, lose all illusions, and develop the semiconductor industry. The basic points quickly moved into the development strategy of “mainly based on me”. Any attempt to rely on external forces to fill in oneself may fail. Therefore, we must step down and quickly strengthen our independent R&D and innovation to respect and protect intellectual property rights. Turning this 'crisis' into an 'opportunity' will only enable China's semiconductor industry to truly succeed.