Graphene conductive agent prices are expected to decline
At present, the main direction for the development and improvement of lithium-ion batteries is to improve battery capacity and charge-discharge performance, improve battery safety, and reduce electrode material costs. Lithium-ion batteries are mainly composed of positive electrodes, negative electrodes, separators, and electrolytes, and determine lithium ions. The key to the overall electrochemical performance of the battery is the electrode material.
The application of graphene powder in lithium-ion batteries is relatively diversified. There are three main application directions. They are used as conductive additives for positive and negative electrodes, used in copper foil or aluminum functional coatings, and as electrode materials. Currently, they have been commercialized. Is used in the cathode material as a conductive additive, to improve the conductivity of the electrode material, increase rate performance and cycle life.
According to statistics from the Graphene Industry Alliance, the price of graphene conductive agent in 2015 was US$230/kg, roughly the same as the price of carbon nanotube conductive agent. With the further maturation of the graphene production process, the influx of related capital and the country With the strong support of the policy, the graphene conducting agent will break through the cost bottleneck. It is expected that the graphene conducting agent price will drop to US$50-80/kg by 2020, and the price advantage of graphene conducting agent will gradually emerge.
Exhibit 1: Predicted prices of various conductive agents by 2020 (Unit: USD/kg)
Graphene conductive agent market is expected to reach 14 billion in 2020
2016-2017 is an exploratory period for the application of graphene in the field of lithium batteries. The overall market penetration rate is relatively low. The growth momentum of the industry at this stage is mainly due to the rapid expansion of lithium battery capacity brought by the rapid growth of new energy vehicles. After 2017 With the gradual elimination of subsidies, lithium battery capacity will fluctuate and the growth rate will slow down. However, the technical conditions for the use of graphene as a lithium battery conductive agent are mature, and the penetration rate of graphene in the lithium battery field will increase rapidly. With rapid expansion, market growth will be mainly driven by technology.
According to the prediction report of Forward Industry Research Institute “2018-2023 China's New Material Industry Market Forward-looking and Investment Strategic Planning”, the conductive agent market will be 511 thousand tons in 2020. If the graphene conductive agent is added to the positive and negative electrode materials, For 6%, by 2020, the demand for graphene in the lithium battery conductive agent is 513,000 * 6% = 30.78 million tons. If the price of graphene can be reduced to 50-80 US dollars / kg in 2020 (5 -8 million US dollars / ton, discount about 34-52 yuan / ton), we take a discount of 450,000 yuan / ton, then in 2020 graphene in the conductive agent market has 13.85 billion yuan.
Exhibit 2: Graphene Conductivity Market Forecast for 2020
