A shares start pharmaceutical market, medical theme fund usher in investment opportunities

Since March 20, the medical website has seen a good one-month rise since the mid-February 20, and it has risen again after three days of corrections. The fund for medicine-themed funds has gained momentum in the relevant sector. obvious.

March 19, medicine The performance of the sector continued to be strong. The CSI 300 Pharmaceutical Index rose 3.15%, ranking the first in the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300-tier industry index, and the Shenwan Pharmaceutical Biology Index rose 2.02%. This rise was not unusual since 2018. As of March 19 On the day, the pharmaceutical sector ranked fourth in the 28 Shenwan industry.

Since mid-February, the pharmaceutical sector has continued a good one-month rally, and it has risen again after experiencing a three-day correction. The fund of medical theme funds has gained momentum under the strong driving force of related sectors.

According to Wind data, as of March 12th, there were 116 health care industry themed funds. The average net value growth rate for the year was 3.7%, compared with 2.04% and -22.21% in the same period of last year and the previous year; 93 biotechnology industry theme funds The average net value growth rate for this year was 1.84%, which was 1.74% and -23.85% for the same period of last year and the previous year; The number of thematic funds for the pharmaceutical industry was 306, and the average net value growth rate was 2.8% this year. The same period last year and the same period of the previous year was 2.07% and -21.38 respectively. %.

According to statistics, as of March 12th, there were 51 active stock and hybrid funds with the words 'medicine' and 'medical' in the entire market. The average net value growth rate was more than 7% since March, and the average return of the year to date is also 4.7% or more outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index over the same period.

What is the future trend of medical-themed funds? When asked how to view the current trend and future trend of the medical sector since 2018, Pu Yin Ansheng fund manager Chen Weifeng said in an interview with the reporters of the International Finance News that '2017 10 On the 1st of the month, the General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued and issued the "Intensification of the review, approval and approval system, and encouragement of drugs medical instruments "Innovative Opinions," the policy is clear: Advocate new drug innovations, promote the development of generic drugs, and launch reinjection studies for injections and devices. This policy is for pharmaceuticals. enterprise The development of the next 10 years points the way. '

He further explained that 'this year the National Medical Protection Bureau will be set up. It is expected that the expansion of the scope and authority of medical insurance will further strengthen the reform measures in line with their own demands: including medical insurance payment standards, clinical pathways, encourage generic drugs, and control and assist drug use. future hospital Medication structure may continue to adjust, pharmacoeconomics and clinical guidelines are expected to be more important, high-end therapeutic drugs and innovative drugs entering the health insurance may be the beneficiaries of structural adjustment, for medical services and retail In the field, the leading companies may also continue to benefit from the increase in industry concentration. Overall, from the perspective of their fundamentals, the industry is basically oriented, especially the subdivision leading to a higher growth rate. In terms of sector comparison, medicine is The substantial consumption + technology sector has seen relatively little gains in the past two years and the market outlook is expected to have a better performance.

In an interview with reporters, Penghua Medical Science and Technology Fund Manager Jin Xiaofei pointed out: 'The original logic of the market was to find logic in medical insurance, leading to pessimism about the expectations of the medical and medical industry. But this logic is likely to be broken in 2018. There are many new and promising growth points in the market. The investment in the pharmaceutical sector in 2018 mainly depends on two: The first is that innovative drugs for self-consumption upgrades can bring incremental growth to the industry and drive market sentiment; the second is the rise of the industry. Some low-value stocks are expected to get a valuation fix. In 2018, they are optimistic about innovative drugs, self-money consumption upgrade logic.

In addition, the attention of Internet giants in the field of 'AI+Medical' is one of the reasons why the medical sector has become hot again. On March 15, Peking University Medical and Tencent signed a cooperation agreement to jointly explore 'holistic solutions for smart healthcare'. To a certain extent, it also boosted the strength of the pharmaceutical sector.

'AI+Medical' is an important scene where artificial intelligence can be seen. In 2017, medical AI developed at a rapid pace. According to the AI+ Medical Report released by the Yiou Think Tank, the accumulated financing of domestic medical artificial intelligence companies has exceeded 18 billion yuan. A large amount of investment funds flock to the medical industry.

There are many applications of artificial intelligence in medical applications, including medical robots, intelligent image recognition, auxiliary diagnosis, and drug development. However, it is still a relatively low-level artificial intelligence stage, and the most widely used one should be the image recognition field.

For the development prospects of 'artificial intelligence + medical care', Jin Xiaofei, fund manager of Penghua Fund, believes that 'the current A-share listed company Zhongwan Medical's medical imaging big data platform 'Wanliyun' and the Electrocardiogram laboratories of Lepu Medical The intelligent automatic diagnosis system 'AI-ECG platform' is a very good application of artificial intelligence in the medical field. Considering the current medical environment in China exists: insufficient supply of high-quality medical resources, high cost, long doctor training period, high misdiagnosis rate, and disease There are many challenges such as rapid change of spectrum. The application of AI in the medical field can liberate some clinicians, and it is also expected to allow patients to receive more high-quality and efficient medical services. In short, the future of 'artificial intelligence + medical care' has broad development. Space. '

From the rise of biotechnology in the US market and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's active promotion of domestic biotech companies that are not yet profitable or have no income to Hong Kong, we can see that biotechnology development has a huge prospect. However, the research and development and landing of related products in the pharmaceutical industry are mainly There are various challenges in the process of technological breakthroughs. What are the risks that investors may face in investing in the pharmaceutical sector?

Jin Xiaofei analyzed that from the preclinical research of the drug to the clinical phase II and III clinical, and finally to the final sale, drug development and landing have greater uncertainty. For generic drug R&D, The risk is that BE experimental data is not up to standard, other competitive products are listed, medical insurance is not available, patent litigation issues, etc. For the research and development of innovative drugs, most of the new drug research and development in China adopts a 'following' strategy, and the R&D risk is slightly less than that of foreign innovative drugs. R&D, but at the same time, it is also faced with many risks such as the rejection of the market if the clinical data is not up to standard, poor marketing ability, poor sales, and the listing of competing products. In short, it is a long time for drugs from R&D to listing to contribute performance. With an uncertain process, pharmaceutical investors need to be fully aware of these potential risk factors.

Pu Yin An Shing Fund Manager Chen Weifeng reminded investors to pay special attention to the entire R&D time and enter the clinical phase 3 drug The success rate is only 2%-30%. Therefore, when investing in innovative drug companies, they mainly look at R&D platforms (such as the background of lead scientists, historical experience of major R&D personnel, time for the establishment of R&D platforms, etc.) and pipelines under development. , Try not to invest in a company with only one heavy variety.

He pointed out that there are three major barriers to the development of pharmaceuticals from compounds to the formation of basic molecular structures. One is the formation of molecular structures. This process requires constant accumulation and has some contingency. Nowadays, computer technology is of molecular structure. It is found that there is a certain amount of help that can significantly reduce the workload; the second is that animal experiments prove to be effective, so that it can enter the first phase of clinical trials; and finally the third phase of clinical trials, that is, to prove the validity of drugs in mathematical statistics. It requires a large number of clinical trials and mass production.