This article analyzes that:
1) Overcapacity of solar cells in 2018
By the end of 2017, the global solar cell production capacity reached 130GW, a year-on-year increase of 37%. Taking into account the expansion plans of various companies in 2018 and the installed capacity of the downstream market in 2018 at approximately 110GW, this year, there will be excess capacity in the cell segment. The domestic company's battery production capacity reached 88GW, accounting for 67.7% of the global market.
2) Non-PERC capacity is under greater competitive pressure
PERC cells will gradually become mainstream applications in 2018. Of the global 130 GW capacity, only 50 GW is PERC capacity, and 80 GW is non-PERC capacity. Personally believe that the solar panel company reshuffle will start by eliminating non-PERC capacity and non-PERC capacity. The company will face greater competitive pressure.
3) The top 25 companies in terms of production capacity, the total production capacity accounts for 57% of the global, PERC production capacity accounts for 80% of the world. They are mainly divided into two categories, the first type to give the main internal downstream supply; External sales, the former's capacity is much higher than the latter.
4) In 2018, the solar cell companies may face different temperatures
The first type of companies mainly serve their own companies, affecting the competitiveness of downstream components. Jinke, Tianhe, Jingao, Leye and other first-class companies have large PERC capacity and a high proportion of single-crystal PERC.
In the second category of companies, some companies with large total cell output capacity and high non-PERC capacity will face more severe competition in 2018. PERC's large production capacity, such as Ai Xu, is mainly based on single-crystal PERC. Companies will have a greater competitive advantage.
The second type of enterprises should pay special attention to the fact that AiXu is a professional battery cell manufacturing company. Its production capacity is mainly low-production in the second half of last year. Both are competitive and efficient single-crystal PERC production capacity. It is expected that after the expansion in 2018, it will Reaches 4GW, or will become the dark horse of the 2018 battery company.
First, PERC battery will become the mainstream application product in 2018
1, Efficient PERC components are the best choice for the leader base
Among the technical solutions adopted by the five companies selected by Baicheng’s front runners on March 13th, four components were used, as follows:
The first paragraph: P-type single-crystal PERC components, conversion rate of 18.77%, 18.8%, 18.9%, 18.96%
Second paragraph: P-type single-crystal PERC double-sided module, conversion rate of 18.8%
The third paragraph: N-type double-sided components, the conversion rate of 18.8%;
The fourth paragraph: MWT+PERC components, conversion rate of 19.05%
Of the 4 components, 3 use PERC technology, one uses N-type components, and one uses MWT technology. Not surprisingly, high-efficiency PERC components will become the preferred products for the remaining 9 bases of the winning bid components.
2. The use of high-efficiency PERC components in ordinary ground power stations will increase dramatically
From the electricity price to the technical school, the influence of the frontrunner base on the entire PV market is enormous. In addition to the frontrunners bidding, local general ground power station bidding often uses a similar bid evaluation method to the leader, which makes the conversion efficiency of the components important. The bid evaluation option. The widespread adoption of PERC components in this front runner will promote the application of high-efficiency PERC components in common ground power stations. Therefore, the application of high-efficiency PERC components in general ground power stations will also be greatly increased.
3, High-quality, high-rent roof promotes efficient use of PERC components in distributed applications
In the distributed realm, as roof rentals become more expensive, efficient components can make more efficient use of rooftops, saving on single-wattage rents. There is no doubt that fewer and fewer quality roofs, and higher rents will drive the efficient distribution of PERC components. Application in the field.
4, efficient PERC components with high cost performance
At present, the price of high-efficiency PERC components differs from that of ordinary components by more than 15W, and the price difference is around 0.15 yuan/W. Under this power and price difference, high-efficiency components have a good price/performance ratio.
To sum up, overcapacity of PERC modules in 2018
By the end of 2017, the global cell production capacity reached 130GW, which was a 37% year-on-year increase. Taking into account the expansion plans of various companies in 2018 and the installed capacity of the downstream market in 2018 at about 110GW, this year, there will be excess capacity in the cell segment. The domestic company's battery production capacity reached 88GW, accounting for 67.7% of the global market.
2) Non-PERC production capacity is under greater competitive pressure
PERC cells will gradually become mainstream applications in 2018. Of the global 130 GW capacity, only 50 GW is PERC capacity, and 80 GW is non-PERC capacity. Individuals believe that the solar panel companies will begin to phase out non-PERC capacity and non-PERC capacity. The company will face greater competitive pressure.
3) The top 25 companies in terms of production capacity, the total production capacity accounts for 57% of the global, PERC production capacity accounts for 80% of the world. They are mainly divided into two categories, the first category to give the main internal downstream supply; External sales, the former's capacity is much higher than the latter.
4) In 2018, the solar cell companies may face different temperatures
The first type of companies mainly serve their own companies, affecting the competitiveness of downstream components. Jinke, Tianhe, Jingao, Leye and other first-class companies have large PERC capacity and a high proportion of single-crystal PERC.
In the second group of companies, some companies with large total battery capacity and high non-PERC capacity will face a more severe competition situation in 2018. PERC, which has a large capacity, is mainly based on single-crystal PERC. Companies will have a greater competitive advantage.
The second type of enterprises should pay special attention to the fact that AiXu is a professional battery cell manufacturing company. Its production capacity is mainly low-production in the second half of last year. Both are competitive and efficient single-crystal PERC production capacity. It is expected that after the expansion in 2018, it will Reaches 4GW, or will become the dark horse of the 2018 battery company.
First, PERC battery will become the mainstream application product in 2018
1, Efficient PERC components are the best choice for the leader base
Among the technical solutions adopted by the five companies selected by Baicheng’s front runners on March 13th, four components were used, as follows:
The first paragraph: P-type single-crystal PERC components, conversion rate of 18.77%, 18.8%, 18.9%, 18.96%
Second paragraph: P-type single-crystal PERC double-sided components, conversion rate of 18.8%
The third paragraph: N-type double-sided components, the conversion rate of 18.8%;
The fourth paragraph: MWT+PERC components, conversion rate of 19.05%
Of the 4 components, 3 use PERC technology, one uses N-type components, and one uses MWT technology. Not surprisingly, high-efficiency PERC components will become the preferred products for the remaining 9 bases of the winning bid components.
2. The use of high-efficiency PERC components in ordinary ground power stations will increase dramatically
From the electricity price to the technical school, the influence of the frontrunner base on the entire PV market is enormous. In addition to the frontrunner bidding, local general ground power station bidding often uses a similar bid evaluation method to the frontrunner, which makes the conversion efficiency of components important. Bid evaluation options. The widespread adoption of PERC components in this lead will drive the use of high-efficiency PERC components in common ground-based power stations. As a result, the use of high-efficiency PERC components in common ground-based power stations will also increase significantly.
3, High-quality, high-rent roof promotes efficient use of PERC components in distributed applications
In the distributed realm, as roof rentals become more expensive, efficient components can make more efficient use of rooftops and save on single-wattage rentals. There is no doubt that fewer and fewer quality roofs are available, and higher rents will drive the efficient distribution of PERC components. Application in the field.
4, efficient PERC components with high cost performance
At present, the price of high-efficiency PERC components differs from that of ordinary components by more than 15W, and the price difference is around 0.15 yuan/W. Under this power and price difference, high-efficiency components have a good price/performance ratio.
In summary, high-efficiency PERC components (including single crystal, polycrystalline) will be greatly increased in domestic applications in 2018 and become mainstream applications.
What are the current production capacities of PERC modules in China? The productivity of different types of PV modules depends mainly on the production capacity of the cells. In order to understand the production capacity of high-efficiency PERC modules, this paper investigates the production capacity of solar cells at home and abroad.
Second, the global production of solar cells
According to the statistics of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, the global production of photovoltaic cells has maintained a steady growth trend in the last 10 years (2007~2016), and the annual growth rate in recent years has stabilized at more than 20%, as shown in the figure below.
Figure 1: Global Cell Production and Growth Rate from 2007 to 2016
In 2016, the global battery production capacity was 95GW, including about 63GW in mainland China, 11GW in Taiwan, and 8GW in Southeast Asia; the total output was 75GW, and the capacity utilization rate was 79%.
Third, the solar cell production capacity distribution profile
In 2017, there was a round of expansion in the solar cell market. The new production capacity was mainly high-efficiency PERC cells. According to statistics, the total global cell production capacity in 2017 reached approximately 130 GW, an increase of 37% year-on-year. The specific distribution is shown in the following table. Show.
Table 1: Global solar cell production capacity distribution at the end of 2017 (Unit: GW)
As can be seen from the above table:
1) Taking into account the expansion plans of various companies in 2018 and the installed capacity of the downstream market in 2018 at about 110 GW, this year, there will be excess capacity in the battery segment.
2) Of the global 130 GW capacity, only 50 GW is PERC capacity, 80 GW is non-PERC capacity, and the 2018 expansion is mainly PERC capacity. Personally think that PERC production capacity will have a better market, and the battery company shuffling will first eliminate non- PERC capacity starts, non-PERC capacity companies will face greater competitive pressures.
3) Domestic PERC battery production capacity reached 32GW, including single-crystal PERC and polycrystalline PERC. Single-crystal PERC components are the mainstream of Baicheng's winning bidder components, and are expected to be favored by the market in 2018. Market Share Will greatly increase the proportion.
Further classification of domestic 32GW PERC production capacity is shown in the figure below.
Figure 2: Capacity distribution of domestic PERC components
From the above figure, we can see that at the end of 2017, the domestic 32GW PERC battery capacity, single crystal cells accounted for 71%, accounting for an absolute advantage, only 29% for the polycrystalline cell film.
Fourth, the main solar cell production capacity overview
According to Table 2 and Figure 2, we can see that the total capacity of the top 25 companies reached 74GW, which accounted for 57% of the total global production capacity; PERC production capacity reached 40GW, accounting for 80% of the global PERC capacity.
The top 25 companies include two categories:
The first type: involves the upper and lower parts of the battery, and the production capacity of the battery is mainly for self-support;
The second category: purchase wafers for processing silicon wafers, do not produce components themselves, and the battery is mainly sold externally.
1, the total battery capacity analysis
According to preliminary statistics, by the end of 2017, the rankings of the total capacity of each company are shown in Table 2, Table 3.
Explanation:
1) Many companies have ambitious expansion plans in the battery segment in 2018. The following statistics do not consider the expansion of the company in 2018.
2) Different companies have different capacity utilization rates. The ranking of production capacity and actual production will be different. This article is to illustrate the competitiveness of the company's capacity and technical route. Therefore, this paper mainly analyzes the PERC capacity of each company and does not list the actual output.
3) PERC batteries will become mainstream applications in 2018, and non-PERC battery capacity will face greater competitive pressure. Therefore, the PERC capacity of each company is specifically analyzed.
In the first group of companies, there are four global companies with a total solar cell capacity of more than 5 GW, as detailed in the following table:
Table 2: The first type of enterprises with a global cell production capacity exceeding 5GW by the end of 2017
In the second category, there are four global companies with a total solar cell capacity of more than 3 GW, as detailed in the table:
Table 3: The second type of enterprises with a global cell production capacity exceeding 3GW at the end of 2017
Table 2, Table 3:
The first type of companies mainly serve their own companies, affecting the competitiveness of downstream components; while the second type of enterprises are the competitiveness of solar cell products, and the competitive pressure will be even greater. Jinao, Tongwei, Modi, etc. have high total production capacity and are not PERCs. Companies with a high ratio of production capacity will face a more severe competition situation in 2018. For companies such as Hanwha, Artes, AiXu, etc., which have large capacity and PERC capacity is above 80%, they may have a more competitive advantage.
2, PERC battery capacity analysis
Among the companies with large PERC capacity, some are single crystal PERC capacity, while others are polycrystalline PERC capacity. According to the current situation, single crystal PERC will have relatively more advantages. Therefore, the PERC capacity of each enterprise Do further analysis.
In the first group of companies, there are 7 companies with a global PERC capacity exceeding 2GW, as detailed in the following table:
Table 4: The first type of enterprises with global PERC capacity exceeding 2GW by the end of 2017
In the second category, there are seven companies with a global PERC capacity exceeding 1GW, as detailed in the following table:
Table 5: The second type of enterprises with global PERC capacity exceeding 1GW by the end of 2017
In Table 4, Table 5, Jingke, Tianhe, Jingao, Leye and other first-class companies have large PERC capacity and high ratio of single-crystal PERC; Ai Xu and other second-class enterprises with large PERC capacity are basically The single-crystal PERC is the main concern; the latter category should pay special attention to the fact that, as a professional battery cell manufacturing company, AiXu's production capacity is mainly in the second half of last year. It is a competitive high-efficiency single-crystal PERC production capacity. After the expansion of production is expected to reach 4GW, or will be the dark horse of the 2018 battery company.
V. Conclusion
Comprehensive analysis can be seen:
1) Overcapacity of solar cells in 2018
By the end of 2017, the global cell production capacity reached 130GW, which was a 37% year-on-year increase. Taking into account the expansion plans of various companies in 2018 and the installed capacity of the downstream market in 2018 at about 110GW, this year, there will be excess capacity in the cell segment. The domestic company's battery production capacity reached 88GW, accounting for 67.7% of the global market.
2) Non-PERC capacity is under greater competitive pressure
PERC cells will gradually become the mainstream application products in 2018. Of the global 130 GW capacity, only 50 GW is PERC capacity, and 80 GW is non-PERC capacity. Personally think that the reshuffle of the solar cell companies will begin with the elimination of non-PERC capacity and non-PERC capacity. The company will face greater competitive pressure.
3) The top 25 companies in terms of production capacity, the total production capacity accounts for 57% of the global, PERC production capacity accounts for 80% of the world. They are mainly divided into two categories, the first category to give the main internal downstream supply; External sales, the former's capacity is much higher than the latter.
4) In 2018, the solar cell companies may face different temperatures.
The first type of companies mainly serve their own companies, affecting the competitiveness of downstream components. Jinke, Tianhe, Jingao, Leye and other first-class companies have large PERC capacity and a high proportion of single-crystal PERC.
In the second category of companies, some companies with large total cell output capacity and high non-PERC capacity will face more severe competition in 2018. PERC's large production capacity, such as Ai Xu, is mainly based on single-crystal PERC. Companies will have a greater competitive advantage.
The second type of enterprises should pay special attention to the fact that AiXu is a professional battery cell manufacturing company. Its production capacity is mainly low-put into production in the second half of last year. Both are competitive and efficient single-crystal PERC production capacity. It is expected that after the expansion in 2018, it will Reaches 4GW, or will become the dark horse of the 2018 battery company.
