In 2018, three of the world's top four PV markets face different levels of challenges at the same time. The total installed capacity in the world may reach the level of 90 to 95 GW. This may be the first negative growth in the history of the photovoltaic industry. At this point in time, we seem to be Clear-headed rather than blindly optimistic.
I. Where was the analysis of last year wrong?
Failure is the mother of success, and mistake is the correct mother. Analyze where the predictions of last year were wrong, perhaps we can make this year's forecast more accurate. In fact, apart from the predictions, there were many predictions from various companies in early 2017. The reliable part, for example, the expected decline in the installed capacity of the Japanese market in 2017 was only 5.8 GW; the Indian market has experienced an expected double increase from 4.5 GW to 9 GW in 2017; the deviation mainly comes from the two markets in China and the United States. The actual installed capacity in the United States did decline, from 16GW in 2016 to 11GW. However, under the disturbance of the US's 201 policy, there was an early arrival of cargo rushes at the end of 2017. It was everyone who had accumulated 5GW of silicon. The film may have a higher tax rate, which makes the prediction and actual 5GW deviation.
Of course, the bigger deviation still comes from China. Because China’s “first-come, first-served” policy is that there has been an explosion in the amount of photovoltaic installations that is not subject to index control. Yes, the 2017 Energy Bureau had to issue a supplemental indicator of 13.9 GW. In addition, distributed and household photovoltaics also experienced an unexpected large outburst of 35.4% from the same period of last year, reaching 19.44GW, which was unexpected growth that most imaginative analysts did not analyze at the beginning of the year.
Therefore, the United States 201 disturbances, China's distributed outbreaks, and China’s first-come-first-served additions caused major deviations between forecasts and actual results. Excluding these three parts, analysts basically rely on most of the predictions in other regions. Spectrum.
Looking ahead to 2018, the above three factors that made the market's over-expected development last year will change more or less. First, the US 201 Act has already passed. Due to the accumulation of a large number of component inventory, the United States will basically have no demand in the first half of 2018; secondly, China has already Stopped the policy of first-come-first-serve, and no longer have additional indicators; the last is that the distributed market has full growth expectations, and because the industrial and commercial roof projects may need to be included in indicator management, China's distribution is that the development of the market has once again surpassed expectations. The probability of development is decreasing.
II. Analysis of Global Markets
i Chinese market
The installed capacity of the Chinese market in 2017 is 53GW, which is the world's largest photovoltaic installation market, accounting for 52% of the world's total. In 2018, project forecasts within the national indicators are easier and more precise because there is no disturbance of the first-served-first-served policy. The expected projects under the indicator plan are:
1. Estimated 12 GW for ground station specifications.
Analysis: A total of 14.4 GW of ground power station targets were issued in 2017, of which approximately 8 GW has already been allocated to photovoltaic power plant projects built on the policy of first-come-first-served policies; the remaining 6 to 7 GW of projects are expected to grab 630 in 2018. This is the main source of demand for this year's 630 rush-installation. During the 630 rush-out period last year, a total of more than 20 GW of photovoltaic power stations were installed. This year's intensive loading was only one-third of last year, taking into account the continuously expanding capacity. We can draw a clear conclusion: This year's so-called 630 rush-install will not bring significant disturbance to the prices of photovoltaic-related products.
In addition, 11.2GW of ground station indicators will be issued in 2018. However, due to the tightening of the current state's attitude toward photovoltaic development, it is expected that the time for releasing these indicators will be late. If these indicators finally arrive in the 3rd and 4th quarters If you issue it, then the amount that can be installed this year will be very limited. So, Wang Shujuan’s teacher expects that the 2018 indicator can be implemented in 2018 with only about 3 GW, but I don’t think there will be a grace period of 630 in 2019. This prompted some power plant owners who can get timely indicators to work hard before the end of this year. The capacity of the 2018 indicator reached the current year, I estimate that it can have more than 5GW, so the entire 2018 standard project component demand from ordinary ground power stations For 12GW.
2. Estimated 6GW for the leader project.
Analysis: There are 5GW application leader projects to be installed and installed in 2018, and the timing of grid connection by technology leaders is estimated to be 2019. However, since the 2017 frontrunners installed less than the target, about 1.2GW of projects have not been completed. Completion of grid-connected construction, and recent national issuing policies require the completion of grid-connected installations as soon as possible. Otherwise, according to the policy, the electricity price will be reduced by 5 cents per quarter. It is estimated that under the stimulation of the policy, this part of the bidding will be actively robbed for projects that are not connected to the grid. This will lead to an annual leader project of 6GW.
3, 4.18GW or 8GW of village poverty alleviation power station.
Analysis: At present, the country has separately issued 4.18GW village poverty alleviation power station targets. Since poverty alleviation is a national policy, it is a political task; and subsidies have not been lowered in the country, so this part of the project has a large probability of being fully implemented this year. There are also projects with a total of about 4 GW that may issue indicators. However, there are uncertainties in whether these indicators can be issued. Overall, this year's national policy on the photovoltaic industry will be tight and loose. The focus of the country in the first half of the year Mainly in the subsidy gap is huge, the grid capacity is limited, so the overall photovoltaic industry policy is not very friendly. And wait until the second half of the photovoltaic industry may appear a larger reshuffle, the enterprise's situation becomes more difficult, the country’s focus may be Return to the manufacturing industry, and then introduce a loose PV industry policy. If another 4GW of village poverty alleviation indicators can be issued in a timely manner, then the total capacity of village-level poverty alleviation will reach 8GW.
4. Seven unconstrained target areas and 2.5GW of UHV grid supporting projects.
This part directly refers to the experience, and it is estimated that the target area will be installed with 1.5GW; the supporting project for the UHV power grid is estimated to have 1GW.
5, household distribution will burst into 8GW.
Analysis: According to the shipment statistics of inverter manufacturers, China's household inverter output reached 500,000 units (about 2.8 GW) in 2017, and the subsidy for self-use projects was reduced only slightly in 2018 (only 5 reductions). According to our calculation of component prices for this year, as long as the price falls by 0.35 yuan, the internal rate of return for household projects can exceed last year, because I estimate that this year, the price of polycrystalline silicon components will slide down the price of 2 yuan/W, compared with that of last year. The average price of 2.8 yuan has fallen by as much as 0.8 yuan. Therefore, the internal rate of return for domestic power plants will exceed that of last year, and a large number of heavyweight players will enter the market as new players. It is expected that household distribution will further increase this year. Land ushered in a large burst of 1.5 million sets of the corresponding 8GW of photovoltaic capacity.
6, Industrial and Commercial Roof Project 10GW.
Analysis: As the country is considering the inclusion of this type of project into the indicator management, there will be huge uncertainty in the installed capacity of this part. At present, only the neutral optimistic estimate is 10 GW.
China Market Summary: Adding up the above six parts, we estimate that China's PV installation capacity in 2018 should be around 45 GW. Although there are bright spots in many sub-segment areas, there is no supplemental index built in first-come-first-served and the potential for distribution may be included. Indicator management, the overall capacity is less than the 53GW in 2017, the Chinese market has ushered in negative growth, which in turn poses no small challenge to the global market.
Ii. U.S. Market
Estimated actual component demand in the United States in 2018 is 6GW.
Analysis: The U.S. market initiated a double counter-survey in April last year. Due to concerns that the U.S. government will impose higher punitive tariffs, it conducted surprise raiding and component picking in the third and fourth quarters of last year. Photovoltaic installed capacity was 11GW, but stockpiles of 5GW were stocked. So last year, the actual demand for components in the United States was as high as 16GW, continuing to maintain its position as the world's second-largest market. The dust settled in January 201, 2018 was finally determined to be a 30% tax rate. Lin Yunrong of PV Infolink believes that the high tax rate will increase the cost of construction of US power stations. Therefore, it is further estimated that the actual installation of US PV power plants in 2018 will further reduce the US installation demand to 9 GW. In addition, due to the stock of 9 GW of components that have been hoarded, 2018 The actual demand for components in the US market will be reduced to 4 GW, which is only a quarter of last year. It can be seen that the disturbance in the U.S. market will cause huge uncertainties in the global market, and it can be expected due to the large stocks currently accumulated. In the first half of 2018, there was almost no demand in the U.S. market. In the fourth quarter of this year, we believe that component prices will exceed expectations. Slippage, especially the further popularization of 300W+ high-efficiency components, makes the cost of U.S. power station construction cost-effective even considering the impact of 30% tariffs. So we can be optimistic about the demand in the second half of 2018, and I estimate that U.S. demand for real components this year will Reached 6GW, higher than 4GW of analyst Lin Shurong.
Iii. Indian Market
India is expected to have a further increase of 12 GW.
Analysis: In India, the installed capacity of photovoltaics was 9GW in 2017. Thanks to excellent lighting conditions (around 2000 hours) and low labor costs, India’s PV market started from the outbreak as a parity market, accompanied by further decline in PV module prices this year. Photovoltaic power is very likely to be the cheapest energy in India. The constraints on India's photovoltaic development are the capacity of the power grid; As the demand for electricity in India is only one-fifth that of China's power demand, the current installed capacity of 10 GW level is to the Indian power grid. The challenge of consumption has already been enormous. Recently, there is a good news that India has stopped investigating China’s dual countermeasures. Taking into account the current situation of power shortage in India and photovoltaic power that may become cheaper, India’s photovoltaic installation capacity has further increased in 2018. Estimated to reach 12GW.
Iv. Japanese Market
The Japanese market is estimated at 5GW.
In 2017, the Japanese market installed capacity was 6GW. Since April 1, 2018, Japan will further reduce the FIT subsidy from 24 yen to 21 yen/kwh, which is a 12.5% reduction. Japan is a high BOS cost area, so even components Prices have fallen sharply. The actual decline in the cost of power station construction is far less than the decline in the price of components. This has made Japan's photovoltaic power plant operators unprofitable. Last year, 98 photovoltaic power plant operators in Japan went bankrupt, and it was the bankruptcy of Japan's history. Climax. As these companies are the main part of the promotion and construction of photovoltaic power plants, their large number of bankruptcies will inevitably lead to a further reduction in the installed capacity of PV in Japan this year; the ultra-predicted decline in the prices of components will offset the negative impact to a certain degree, so it is estimated that Japan’s Component demand is 5GW.
v. Other markets
In China, 53GW in China, 16GW in the United States, 9GW in India, and 6GW in Japan combined a total of 84GW of PV installations, which accounted for 83% of the global installed PV capacity. The market demand in Europe, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, South America and Africa totaled 18GW, accounting for 17%; Although the current installed capacity of the market is not large, it is a very healthy market. The above areas benefit from good lighting resources or high local electricity prices. They are basically markets that have developed without subsidies. As the prices of components in 2018 may exceed expectations, they may decline. The above areas may usher in more than expected growth. As a result, the proportion of the top four markets will decrease, and the proportion of other regions will increase. Due to energy and capacity, we have not conducted detailed analysis of other regional markets and can only combine gross environmental protection. It is estimated that the year-on-year increase in photovoltaic installation capacity in the above-mentioned areas can reach 40% to 60% to a level of 25 to 30 GW.
III. Summary and Comments:
Looking forward to 2018, as three markets in the world's top four markets are facing challenges at the same time, there will be negative growth at different levels. The total installed capacity of PV in the world will be around 93 GW, compared with the installed capacity of 103 GW in 2017. The world's photovoltaic installations will usher in the first negative growth in history. Since the demand is only 90% of last year, the unit price of photovoltaic products will decline to 75% last year, making the output value of the photovoltaic manufacturing industry only 67% of last year, photovoltaic manufacturing. The difficulties and challenges faced by the industry should not be underestimated, and the reorganization of production capacity in certain areas (such as silicon materials and silicon wafers) should be confirmed. This global market demand analysis should prove that my previous article “2018 will be the last time in the photovoltaic industry. In the judgement of adult etiquette, related companies in the industry should make full preparations for the response, especially paying special attention to the cash flow status of their own companies.
In addition, the pattern of silicon material that I have been good at analyzing will usher in a big change.
93GW Component Requirements Corresponds to Silicon Material Requirements in 2018
According to the above table, we can see that if the total global demand for components in 2018 is 93 GW, the corresponding demand for silicon materials is only 330,000 tons, and currently China’s monthly silicon output has reached 25,000 tons per month. Through Ville Mountain, 50,000 tons of Baotou, 40,000 tons of Xinjiang GCL, and 20,000 tons of East Hope, a series of low-cost production capacity will be put into production. In the fourth quarter of this year, China’s silicon material production capacity will reach a level of 450,000 tons, which is sufficient to satisfy the entire Due to the world's demand, China will complete the import substitution of the silicon material link in the second half of this year, and large-scale withdrawal of overseas high-cost production capacity. But even so, the supply of domestic silicon materials is still surplus, and some domestic high-cost silicon material production capacity Also face challenges.
