In the past few months, passive components have been out of stock and prices have risen frequently, making mid-and-downstream manufacturers feel overwhelmed. Wang Lei, the general manager of China Lei, took the lead in pointing out that the outsourcing of passive components has affected the company’s shipments, and the price increase is almost crazy. Become a source of pressure for manufacturers. Although Zhonglei expects that the passive component market conditions will be at best 2 to 3 seasons, it will fall to the bottom in the summer of 2018. However, Chen Guoming, chairman of Ranguo Guojue, believes that due to various reasons, the problem of shortage of goods will continue until 2019. , highlighting the large gap between the passive component supplier and the customer. Zhonglei recently stated that due to the shortage of passive components and price increase, due to the exchange rate, memory, and passive component price increase, Zhonglei’s profit decline in 2017 has been negative. The supply of components is like tap water. As long as the tap is turned on, water will flow out. Manufacturers do not need to stock. Nowadays, many companies do not know which faucet will open until there is water. Because each electronic product is usually used. One hundred passive components, as long as there is no one component, it will not be able to sell. This has led to panic in the industry and deepened the turmoil in the market for irrational grabbing. Recently, Taiwan’s passive component suppliers are full of pockets. Most of the company’s revenues grew at double digits, and gross profit margins also hit new highs. However, the passive component factory does not believe that the improvement in gross profit is mainly driven by rising prices of passive components. Although customers purchase passive components, they only reflect reasonable costs. In fact, many of the money earned by the passive components factory in Taiwan is actually due to product mix optimization. Due to successful technological breakthroughs, they gradually have the ability to share the long-term, non-occupied markets of the Japanese factories. Chen Taiming pointed out that the Guoju had already known in the fourth quarter of 2016. The demand for passive components was in short supply, because orders exceeded production capacity by about 10%. At that time, there was no tight supply, and each of them had inventory. However, after one year, the safety stock had been reduced by 36 days, which resulted in a shortage of stocks today. The situation of unsatisfactory goods, and even some products are out of stock. Guo Ju emphasized that only a small part of the increase in gross profit margin is due to price increases, while the other is the increase in the proportion of products with high added value, due to high specifications and high added value. The product has opened up to the market and has been shipped in large quantities, becoming the biggest contributor to the improvement of gross profit margin. As for the general standard product, although the price has increased several times, its unit price and the manufacturer’s Contributing, it is still not comparable to niche-type, automotive-type passive components. As for when the passive component market conditions tend to be stable, some customers think that at best two to three seasons will fall to the bottom, but suppliers do not It is believed that because of the limited capacity expansion of passive components in the world, the quality of the mainland suppliers cannot meet the market demand, and the delivery period of production equipment has been extended to 14 to 18 months, and it is impossible to reach the end of summer in 2018. As for the explosiveness of the demand side Growth, and the fact that passive components are out of stock will continue for a whole year, because now, in addition to home appliances and computer applications, it also includes smart phones, augmented reality (AR), artificial intelligence (AI), and Internet of Things (IoT). The use of passive components such as 5G base stations and intelligent robots is quite large, and many automotive electronics have become the standard equipment, and the supply of passive components continues to be tight. In 2016, TDK, Murata, Kyocera, etc. moved their product lines to high levels. The profitable market has caused nearly 30% of the supply gap, resulting in 2017 price increase of passive component multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCC). In March 2018, Murata once again targeted 0805, 0603, and the following products were announced to reduce production by 50%. Price increases, Many customers are caught off guard. Due to the Japanese system, the production capacity of the passive component plant in Taiwan is fully loaded. It is almost impossible to open new production capacity in recent months, and it is also unable to accept customer orders. Under such circumstances, the situation of passive components and exotic goods can be feared. Once again, if coupled with the hype by distributors, it will make the prices of passive components and market conditions even more confusing in 2018. The industry expects that the passive component price competition will be inevitable in 2018. Under the prudent and restrained production expansion by suppliers, it is difficult for buyers at this stage. To bargain to the seller, the price may rise again in the long term, and driven by expectations, it may aggravate the market-fighting behavior. Passive component factories, distributors, and cargo pickers may become big winners. However, the passive components factory in Taiwan is still It is necessary to continue to master the autonomous formulation and process technology and avoid technology outflows before it is possible to gradually divide the daily orders of high-end products of the Japanese factory. This is the most important Blue Ocean strategy at present. As for the pressure of the mid-downstream clients, no alternatives can be found. Before the supply of goods, only through quarterly negotiations with the passive components factory, fully stabilize the supply.
