This year, the PVC market trend is somewhat similar to the same period of last year. After the Spring Festival, under the support of the recovery mentality, suppliers' prices have increased slightly by a week or so. However, as information gradually becomes clear, the PVC social inventory gradually increases and recruitment is difficult. As a result of the problems, the downstream products started to recover less than expected, and the market price of PVC turned back down again. As of now, the price has been falling for more than two weeks, and the price has fallen by a high of 500 yuan/ton.
At present, the downstream construction has basically returned to normal levels. The main factors affecting market trends in the future are changes in social inventory, spring maintenance and exports, and other factors. This article focuses on the maintenance situation. Other influencing factors will be analyzed separately in subsequent articles. .
There are certain seasonal rules for the overhaul of PVC installations. Generally, the company arranges 1-2 routine inspections every year. The time for each inspection is more than one week. The 4-6 months of each year are the most concentrated inspections, and the more concentrated time The section is the autumn maintenance. The month of 2017 spring maintenance is the most concentrated month.
The first quarter of 2018 is nearing completion. From the maintenance situation in January-February, the overall maintenance involved a small amount of production capacity and the PVC operating rate was relatively high. The data show that the 1-2 month PVC equipment is higher than the loss due to maintenance. In the same period of last year, it was mainly due to the fact that there were two medium-sized enterprises due to the breakdown of parking time.
From April to May, companies with maintenance plans are also announced one after another. Other companies are expected to announce maintenance plans in the future. However, the actual maintenance time is still uncertain. It is expected that the total capacity of the enterprises involved in the maintenance in April and May will be At about 4 million tons, the amount of repair damage is difficult to estimate at present, but it will certainly be significantly higher than in the first quarter. Therefore, in the next two quarters of the PVC market from the perspective of maintenance, it is worth the wait.