As millet IPOs approached, more and more relevant news came out.
Recently, some media have exposed a so-called Xiaomi Pre-IPO financing promotion material, clearly showing Xiaomi's income, profit, users, valuation and market value data.
Suspected exposure of financing materials
According to the materials, Xiaomi still lost 980 million yuan in 2015, earned 913 million yuan in 2016, and is expected to reach 7.582 billion yuan in 2017. The profit rate is 6.5%, and it is expected to increase to 18.831 billion yuan in 2019.
During the four years from 2016 to 2019, Xiaomi’s net profit growth rate could reach 174%.
In 2017, Xiaomi’s revenue was estimated to be US$17.6 billion (approximately RMB111.3 billion), and the proportion of Internet service revenue rose to 31.7%. In November 2017, Lei Jun publicly stated that it had completed a sales target of RMB100 billion.
It is estimated that by 2019, Xiaomi's annual income will reach 38.2 billion U.S. dollars (approximately 241.6 billion yuan), and Internet service revenue will account for more than 50% of the total.
According to the materials, Xiaomi currently has a valuation of 68 billion U.S. dollars (approximately 430 billion yuan). If it is listed in the fourth quarter of 2018, the market value will be in the range of 854-1163 billion U.S. dollars (approximately 534-454.5 billion yuan).
On the user side, Millet lived at 132 million live, monthly live 165 million, and average daily user usage time was 312 minutes (5.2 hours).
Xiaomi did not disclose the overall profitability data. Prior to this, Wang Yanhui, secretary-general of the Mobile China Alliance, said on Weibo that the profits of Xiaomi in 2017 will not be less than one billion US dollars. The data released by the financing promotion materials also meets the expectations of the industry. .
For the above financing materials, Xiaomi refused to comment on the "Securities Daily" reporter.
Hardware companies and the Internet
It is worth noting that according to the above financing materials, in 2016, of Xiaomi’s revenue composition, 79% came from hardware and 21% came from internet service business. The net profit rate of hardware business was only 2.8%, while the net service business’s net The profit rate exceeds 40%. Xiaomi is increasing the proportion of income from Internet service business. In 2017, it is estimated that the revenue from Internet service business accounted for 68.3%. It is estimated that by 2019, the proportion of Internet service business revenue will exceed hardware revenue.
From this it can be seen that Xiaomi does not make much money from hardware devices, mainly relying on relevant Internet services.
And the industry has been arguing around whether Xiaomi is a hardware company or an Internet company.
Some media reports said that fund managers are not optimistic about the stock of hardware companies. Some fund managers said they would not buy shares issued by Xiaomi's IPO, because Chinese hardware companies are facing low profit margins, vicious price wars and consumer brand loyalty. Low problem.
Millet's supporters believe that the company is not a pure hardware company, but like Apple, it has a series of competitive products, including many sports equipment, such as wristbands and rice cookers. Millet browsers and app stores can produce Advertising and game revenue, and profit margins are much higher than smartphones.
In Xiaomi's official website, Xiaomi claimed to be an innovative technology company focused on the construction of high-end smart phones, Internet TV, and smart home ecological chains.
P/E multiples to apples
The valuation of millet given by the above financing materials is obviously far below the market rumors of the valuation of 100 billion US dollars. However, judging from the expected market value at the time of listing in the fourth quarter of this material, Xiaomi may push during this year. Its valuation is high, and it reaches a market value of about 100 billion US dollars at the time of IPO.
Chen Meng, an executive director of Chamson Capital, said in an exchange with a reporter from Securities Daily that Xiaomi’s aura is even greater. It is also Apple’s or Google’s imitator. The revenue and valuation now exposed is too high, especially the price-to-earnings ratio. High.
Apple's current market capitalization is 913.17 billion U.S. dollars, and its price-earnings ratio is 18.34 times. According to this price-to-earnings ratio, the current millet with a profit of 1 billion U.S. dollars should be worth about 18.34 billion U.S. dollars, much lower than the company's current valuation in the private equity market.
In the past year, Tencent has become the highest valuation technology company in China and currently has a P/E of 63.7. Even at this P/E ratio, Xiaomi’s valuation is only US$63.7 billion, which is still far below what many people call the valuation of US$80 billion. The low end of the range.
The media quoted Kiranjeet Kaur, an analyst at International Data Corp., as saying that Xiaomi's equipment, applications and services must form an ecosystem like Apple's. I am afraid there is still a long way to go.
There are even opinions that Xiaomi is unlikely to develop to such a degree. Some people think that Xiaomi will not become Apple, nor will it become Tencent with a huge social media base. Xiaomi is just a hardware company.
It is worth noting that Lei Jun has already resigned from the chairman and director of Cheetah Mobile, gathered for the chairmanship of the era, gradually decentralized, to avoid suspicion of excessive associated transactions before Xiaomi's listing.
With the news of A shares calling for unicorns, Xiaomi will also report the news of A shares and H shares.
Xiaomi still declined to comment on this news.
In Shen Meng's view, the structure of millet A+H is almost impossible, because Xiaomi is a VIE structure, but it is not ruled out that after the listing in Hong Kong, the A shares can be indirectly traded through the CDR.