The egg price was generally weaker since the holiday, and the laying hens entered the production peak period. The supply of eggs increased, but the downstream demand did not. In theory, the price of eggs was still weak, but with the arrival of low prices, farmers In consideration of profit, local egg prices will usher in a rational rebound.
Spot price of eggs continued to fall
Before the Spring Festival, the spot price of the national egg production areas was 4.24.3 yuan/kg, and after the Spring Festival, the prices continued to fall. As of March 14, some production areas even fell below the 3 yuan/kg mark. Futures prices remained strong. Mainly after the year of corn, the price of soybean meal rose, and the cost of feed increased. In addition, the previous egg futures have seen a wave of big drop, and the bearish effect has basically been released.
Some organizations believe that the number of laying hens is low, and that new students and industrial workers will return to the city to boost spot prices. However, after the Spring Festival, the spot price of eggs continues to decline. In the second week of March, some regions have already fallen to RMB 3/kg.
In theory, the laying rate of laying hens is related to breeds. From the chickens, laying hens lay eggs at 16-17 weeks, after which the egg production rate rises rapidly and enters the peak of egg production at 23-24 weeks (the laying rate is over 90%). The egg production peak usually lasts for 20-22 weeks (43-45 weeks for layer life cycle). After the peak of egg production, if feed nutrition and management are in place, egg production rate can still maintain 85%-90% level 10 Weeks to weeks. By 55-60 weeks, laying hens' egg production rate dropped to 80%. Farmers will consider eliminating them. At this time, if the price of eggs is high, and feed nutrition and management are in place, then 65 hens can also The egg production rate is maintained at 78%-80%, and the willingness of farmers to eliminate them actively is low.
The in-depth analysis of the Chinese egg industry market in 2018-2023 and the investment strategy report showed that a portion of laying hens were eliminated from April to May 2017, but insufficient stocks were added at the same time, which kept egg prices high in the second half of 2017. After July, The willingness of laying hens to replenish the bar increased, especially in August-November. Chicken stocks of many breeders were sold out. Delivery takes 20-30 days. In early July, laying hens began laying eggs in late October, and in late November 12 At the beginning of the month, it enters the peak of egg production. Theoretically, April-May is the egg production peak of layered chickens in the second half of 2017.
After the end of the year, although the spot price of eggs continued to fall, some well-managed farmers remained profitable. Even if the cost of farming were high, they would not be actively eliminated. In addition, the new laying hens increased, but the demand was insufficient. Short-term eggs The average spot price of producing areas is likely to be closer to 2.8 yuan/kg.
Future egg price weaknesses
Egg consumption has obvious seasonal characteristics. Generally speaking, after the Spring Festival, the concentrated consumption in the egg market is less, and the eggs are mainly for daily consumption. When the demand decreases, the price of eggs will enter the callback phase. At the end of April and early May, it will hit the low point of the current year. Afterwards, during the Dragon Boat Festival, the Mid-Autumn Festival's holiday season focused on consumer spending and began to rebound. The uptrend generally lasted until mid-September. Currently, the egg market has already entered the off-season, and the main producing areas are taking poor goods everywhere. There is a backlog of inventory, and the spot price of eggs gradually falls back. In the future, egg prices will be dominated by weaker prices.
In January 2018, the number of laying hens was 1.113 billion, a month-on-month decrease of 1.03%, which was a decrease of 3.60% from the same period of last year. The number of laying hens in stock decreased year-on-month, indicating that the short-term tight supply situation remained unchanged. Support. If the old breeder chickens are eliminated regularly, the number of laying hens will continue to decline in February 2018. It is estimated that there will be 1.106 billion laying hens in February, and the stock is still lower than the same period of previous years. The situation of tight supply is not Change, there is a strong support for the spot price of eggs at the bottom, the average probability of the average spot price of eggs in the later period is maintained at 3 yuan online.
