Although global cotton demand has continued to grow in recent years, the demand for a total of 26.24 million tons in 2017 is still less than the level of 10 years ago. Statistics show that the average annual increase in cotton demand in the past 15 years is only 1.39%, while the textile industry and the downstream The demand has developed at a high compound growth rate. The reason for this departure is the increase in the output of cotton substitutes such as polyester downstream products and viscose.
Domestic cotton production stagnates
Cotton, polyester staple fiber and viscose staple fiber constitute the three main raw materials in the textile industry. The domestic cotton output stagnated, and the production capacity of polyester staple fiber and viscose staple fiber continued to expand. In 2009, the output of polyester staple fiber Overtaking cotton. As of the end of 2016, the output of polyester staple fiber was 9,693,200 tons, and the output of viscose staple fiber was 3.41 million tons. The proportion of main raw materials in the textile industry were respectively 54% for polyester staple fiber, 27% for cotton, and viscose Staple fiber 19%. Cotton demand is being squeezed by chemical fiber products is a high price difference between domestic and foreign cotton, the obvious advantage of alternative products. Since the implementation of the domestic policy of cotton in 2011, the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton was over 5,000 yuan/ton, domestic textile and clothing. Companies want to save costs by changing the structure of their raw materials in order to increase their export competitiveness.
In the past ten years, the growth rate of cotton demand was far less than that of chemical fiber and synthetic cotton. The raw material composition of the textile industry, especially the proportion of cotton, has undergone major changes. In the early 1970s, the raw materials of the textile industry were the only, only cotton. Under the guidance of the planned economic policy, the domestic cotton supply and demand are basically balanced. After the reform and opening up, a large number of chemical equipment were introduced and the chemical fiber manufacturing industry began to develop rapidly. The relevant information of the National Cotton Supply and Marketing Association, China Cotton Spinning Association, etc. showed that in 1977, textiles The amount of chemical fiber used was only 11%. It reached 22% in 1990 and rose to 38% in 2000. In the 21st century, China's accession to the WTO, the demand for textile exports has increased substantially, and the textile industry has once again moved forward. Among them, cotton and polyester The blending technology developed at a high speed. Since the supply of cotton is difficult to keep up with the growing demand for export-oriented orders, polyester production ushered in the golden period of development. Finally, in 2005, the amount of chemical fiber exceeded cotton.
From the detailed point of view, the substitution of chemical fiber for cotton has two main reasons. First, the requirements for textile products are more diversified. Chemical fiber raw materials can make up for the lack of cotton product characteristics. Second, spinnable chemical fiber has a price advantage. Before 2005 , The decline in the proportion of cotton is mainly due to the first reason. Polyester and other chemical fiber have good mechanical properties, heat resistance and color fastness, low density, light fabric, good elasticity, fatigue resistance, etc., although not cotton moisture absorption Skin-friendly, soft features, but make up for the disadvantages of cotton fading and deformation.
Around 2005, chemical fiber textiles ushered in a new opportunity for development. The spreads between polyester staple fiber and cotton have turned negative, and polyester staple fiber has more cost advantages. Until today, the price of polyester staple fiber was also lower than that of cotton. The spread between the two is Around 2012, it was as high as 15,000 yuan/ton, and in the last five years it was between 5000 and 10,500 yuan/ton. Viscose staple fiber began to show obvious substitution advantages after 2012. In the past five years, the price difference between cotton and cotton has run in - 2600-7700 yuan / ton.
The survey conducted by various agencies shows that the viscose staple fiber and polyester staple fiber industries are still further expanding their production capacity, and in the process, the industry concentration has increased significantly. It is expected that the expansion of chemical fiber capacity will be accelerated again in 2018. This is to solve the contradiction between cotton supply and demand. In a big way, theoretically speaking, it is not difficult to solve the 2.3-million-ton supply gap in the cotton market by replacing cotton with products such as chemical fiber and rayon, and the new blending technology has created a balance between cotton and chemical fiber. Ultra-spinning cotton. It is foreseeable that in the future, industrial funds will gain greater autonomy to adjust the proportion of cotton, and this ratio depends on the price difference between cotton and chemical fiber. In other words, chemical fiber prices will continue to be a certain extent The ceiling of cotton prices. Under this logic, cotton as an agricultural product will be passively affected by the price of crude oil upstream of chemical fiber, and the correlation between cotton and crude oil prices will also increase.
Increase in market supply
According to industry insiders, this week the State Reserve cotton rounds out a total of 30018.649 tons of cotton resources, including 16120.053 tons of Xinjiang cotton. Starting today, two rounds of sales will be carried out. The first quarter will be sold 150002.64 tons, of which there is a need to dump the stock. 94 Bundle; the second quarter sold 15018.385 tons, which need to dump 85 bundles.
2017/2018 annual sales of reserve cotton wheels were formally launched today. To ensure the smooth implementation of the rounds, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance coordinated the China Fiber Inspection Bureau, China National Grain Reserves Corporation, the National Cotton Exchange Market, and other relevant units to make the rounds Out-of-the-money inspection, transaction and other preparation work, research and improvement and timely release of the State Reserve Cotton Exchange Methods, out of the implementation details and implementation methods of notary inspection.
According to report, according to the National Development and Reform Commission, the calculation formula for reserve floor price for reserve cotton wheels in the Announcement on the Relevant Arrangements for National Reserve Cotton Rotation (No. 9 of 2016) of the Ministry of Finance, the first week of this year (March 12-16) The base price of the turn-out sale is RMB 15,118/tonne (standard-level price). The sales floor price of the actual batch reserve cotton marketed on a daily basis is based on the standard-level sales floor price, the results of the cotton notarization test, and the relevant quality disparity announced by the China Cotton Association. The table calculation determines that the current related work is ready and the social expectations are generally stable.
According to industry insiders, this week the State Reserve cotton rounds out a total of 30018.649 tons of cotton resources, including 16120.053 tons of Xinjiang cotton. Starting today, it will be sold in two rounds. The first quarter will be sold 150002.64 tons, of which there is a need to export Bundle; the second quarter sold 15018.385 tons, which need to dump 85 bundles.
According to the research report on the development prospects and development strategies of the Chinese cotton processing industry in 2017-2022, we must understand that in order to ensure adequate public inspection operations, enterprises that bid for cotton stocks directly under the reserve should issue a verification code in the “reserve cotton outbound” (or issue a verification code). ) The relevant organization shall remind the participating companies to pay attention to the following matters: First, Taigu Heng'an Storage Co., Ltd. is limited to 9.6 meters of vehicles entering the warehouse due to the mountainous area storage road; Second, Weinan City Xincheng Agricultural Science and Technology Development Co., Ltd. The storage area of the reservoir area is limited to 5.8 meters.
The analysis of cotton price trends conducted by major institutions of the reporter’s integrated market revealed that domestic cotton production increased significantly in 2017/2018, and the country’s estimated production increase was 1 million tons, and consumption also increased significantly, at a rate of 450,000 tons. In addition, due to the decrease in opening stocks, The import volume remained at a normal level and the unstocked inventory was expected to decrease to 8 million, which represented a decrease of 1.35 million tons from the previous year. This indicates that major changes have taken place in the production, supply, sales, deposits, etc. of the domestic cotton market, and a new market pattern is emerging. .
After the Spring Festival, the increase in demand for cotton downstream products such as cotton yarn boosted domestic cotton prices by around RMB500/tonne. If Zheng Cotton’s main 1805 contract climbed from RMB14,840/tonne to RMB15,500/tonne, the market showed a better performance. Strong trend of rising. However, with the approach of the annual State Reserve cotton round of cotton sales, the domestic cotton market has entered the 'policy era'. Last week, after the State Department’s turnaround in sales information emerged this year, the domestic The spot price of cotton in the future both fell, but the fluctuation did not exceed market expectations.
According to industry insiders, since the State Reserve Bank began selling sales on March 13th, the market supply has continued to increase. The average transaction price and transaction status of the State Reserve Cotton will become a key factor in guiding domestic cotton prices.
