After experiencing its glory in 2017, China's photovoltaic industry has ushered in a relative low tide in 2018. The latest figures show that the prices of photovoltaic products including silicon wafers, solar cells, and components have all declined in recent days. It is predicted that the PV industry will enter the adjustment period due to the subsidy adjustment and other reasons in the first quarter, and the market is expected to recover in the second quarter. Overall, due to the unexpected growth in 2017, the industry is still optimistic about the development of 2018. In this case, photovoltaic Leading companies have expanded their production, and polysilicon, silicon wafers, and components have all been released in 2018. In addition, the market demand in the first quarter has slowed, and Monocrystalline and Polycrystalline have started to play a 'price war'. In 2018, the photovoltaic industry's 'cost reduction and efficiency increase' kicked off.
Under an aggressive growth trend of leading enterprises will lead to overcapacity? Monocrystalline and polycrystalline war, what the consequences will be? 'Cost efficiency', the price of photovoltaic modules as well as space dash? In response to these problems , Wang Shengrong, general manager of Dongguan Nanbo Photovoltaic Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as CSG Photovoltaic) gave his answer in an interview with OFweek solar photovoltaic network editors.
Capacity expansion of leading enterprises to promote the development of the industry
As the industry continues to improve, Longji, GCL, Zhonghuan, and Tongwei have begun to expand their business leaders. According to statistics, by the end of 2018, only the single crystal link will have a total capacity of more than 60GW, and in 2017, China The total silicon wafer output is only 87.6 GW, of which the monocrystalline silicon wafer output is about 28 GW. In addition, there are similar capacity expansions in the polysilicon, components and other sectors. The year 2018 will be the year for the concentrated release of photovoltaic production capacity once the market demand fails to keep up. , The industry will face the risk of excess capacity.
According to Wang Shengrong, whether the industry broke out or when the industry was low, expansion of the enterprise was a normal market behavior. At present, the expansion of photovoltaic leading enterprises is a good thing for the industry. First of all, the expansion of leading enterprises indicates that these enterprises have very good expectations for the future development of the industry. Secondly, the expansion of leading enterprises is expected to further increase industry concentration and reduce production costs. After years of reshuffling and integration of the photovoltaic industry, the industry Resources are being concentrated in enterprises with technological advantages. From this perspective, the expansion of leading enterprises will eliminate those enterprises with insufficient development capacity, poor management, and weak technological capabilities to make the industry more orderly.
As for overcapacity, from a market perspective, moderate overcapacity is reasonable for any industry because moderate overcapacity represents competition. If the production capacity is exactly equal to demand or demand exceeds supply, then industry competition will not The re-existence of this is not good for the development of the industry and the company itself. On the contrary, a modest overcapacity is more conducive to competition in the industry and enhances the importance attached to technological progress and product quality.
PV modules still have 30% to 40% drop in cost
It must be admitted that the current photovoltaic industry still relies on subsidies. Therefore, under the gradual downward adjustment of subsidies, 'cost reduction and efficiency increase' has become an urgent task for the entire industry. According to estimates, it has been through the past 10 years With the development, PV module prices, system prices, and inverter prices dropped by 90%, 88%, and 91%, respectively. It is this significant cost reduction that has supported the growth of photovoltaic power generation, but these are not enough. Photovoltaic power generation There is still a long way to go from parity Internet access, but at present, the space for price cuts for various components of PV inverters is very limited, and the burden of cost reduction is on PV modules. In this case, there is still less room for PV module prices to fall. ?
According to Wang Shengrong's analysis, with the improvement of battery efficiency and the development of related technologies, PV modules still have a large space for cost reduction. After calculation, according to the current national coal price after desulfurization and denitrification (0.468 yuan/kWh), PV module prices still have a 30% to 40% decline, which can be reduced to 1.9 yuan/Watt - 2 yuan/Watt, at which time PV power generation will achieve parity.
Single crystal, polycrystals should go hand in hand
Since the first quarter of 2018, monocrystalline and polycrystalline prices have once again played a price war. In a month or two, the prices of monocrystalline silicon wafers and polysilicon wafers have dropped by 14.3% and 19%, respectively. How will the battle end?
According to Wang Shengrong, in view of the development in recent years, the cost of crystal wire cutting has been greatly reduced due to the popularity of single-crystal diamond wire cutting. However, in the second half of last year, Polycrystalline Diamond also began to popularize the diamond cutting process. The price drop of crystal products is very large, leading to the decline of the price of single crystal products, which is the cost reduction caused by technological progress.
In the next few years, single crystals and polycrystals will be in the process of a market share transition. During this process, single crystals and polycrystals will fluctuate in market share due to the development of their respective technologies, but they will not appear comprehensive. Replacement and elimination of the situation. From the performance point of view, the efficiency of single crystal is high, but the cost is relatively high, the overall efficiency of polycrystalline is a little lower, but the cost is lower. So from the final use point of view, polycrystalline silicon will be more suitable for Large-area centralized photovoltaic power plants, while single crystals are applied to smaller distributed photovoltaics with higher cost performance.
Whether they are single crystals or polycrystals, they are constantly improving in terms of technology and product performance, but they will continue to advance in the coming years.
Innovation and quality are the core of the company
As a battery and component supplier, CSG currently has 850MW of battery capacity and 400MW of module production capacity. In recent years, the company’s products have been in a prosperous production and sales situation, achieving long-term full-scale sales, and The market has achieved a good response.
Talking about the development of the company, Wang Shengrong stated that CSG is one of the first listed companies to enter the photovoltaic industry, from the polysilicon and silicon wafer production base in Yichang, to the battery and component production base in Dongguan, and then to the unique photovoltaic packaging glass production. Line, CSG has the most complete photovoltaic industry chain in the entire industry. This is also the photovoltaic industry has been ups and downs for more than ten years. CSG PV has been standing firm.
Wang Shengrong stated that in the development over the years, CSGPV has always taken technology innovation and product quality as the core. From the perspective of technological innovation, CSG has invested a lot of funds in technology research and development, and has a national level in Yichang and Dongguan respectively. The laboratory is equipped with the most advanced experimental instruments and hardware facilities. In addition, CSG Photovoltaics also has a strong scientific research team. Advanced laboratories and a strong research team, the advantages of these software and hardware, so that CSG PV continuously upgrades, Improve their own process level and reduce production costs.
As a manufacturing company, CSG has always regarded product quality as its life and focused on product quality improvement. In addition to relying on its own laboratory tests, CSG also actively seeks cooperation with authoritative third-party certification organizations. Wang Shengrong stated that through cooperation with third parties such as TüV Rheinland, CSG PV accurately recognized the performance and quality level of its own products, and timely learned the technical level and development status of the entire industry.
With strong technological innovation strength and the pursuit of product quality, CSG's product quality and performance have always been at the top level in the industry. This is the reason why CSG PV can thrive in the ten years of wind and rain.
Looking ahead, Wang Shengrong stated that CSG will keep abreast of industry trends and strive to achieve a solid foundation for each step based on the existing production capacity. In the future, CSG will continue to increase R&D investment, accelerate product upgrading, and upgrade technology. Go to the forefront of the industry and make industry-leading product quality.
