1. The DRAM market scrambling: As long as the Big Three profits, Intel finds a new hobby, China takes advantage of the rise;
Collection of micro-network news (compilation / Danyang, Le Chuan) Recently, research firm IC Insights warned that DRAM prices soared, China's rising star is expected to take the opportunity to ease the demand has been suppressed.
Looking at the historical situation, the DRAM market is the most volatile part of the major IC product market segments. In the past 2 years, the DRAM market fell by 8% in 2016 and by 77% in 2017. This is a good example. .
Over the past 30 years, the price of DRAM has continued to fall. In the 34 years from 1978 to 2012, the average price per bit of DRAM fell at an average annual rate of 33%. However, from 2012 to 2017, the average DRAM per bit The year-on-year decline in prices has shrunk to 3%. By 2017, the price of DRAMs had fallen before the reversal, which was a reversal of 47%, the largest increase since 1978.
From the perspective of the increase in the number of DRAM bits, the number of DRAM bits increased by 40% in 2016 and 20% in 2017. As shown in Figure 1, during the nine months from May 2017 to January 2018, DRAM bit The average annual growth rate of the dollar amount is only 13%. In 2018, the growth rate of DRAM bit number will maintain at 20%.
Figure 1 also lists the DRAM price per month for each month from January 2017 to January 2018. As the chart shows, the price per DRAM of DRAM has been rising sharply, January 2018 and January 2017. Compared with the month, the price has increased by 47%. There is no doubt that electronic system manufacturers are currently scrambling to adjust and adapt to the skyrocketing price of memory.
DRAM is often considered to be a petroleum-like commodity. Like most commodities, product demand is elastic, which means that price increases will dampen demand, while lower prices will increase and create new uses. For example, when oil prices are low At the time, many consumers buy large-scale suvs because there is little concern about the efficiency of using gallons of gasoline. However, when oil prices rise, consumers often choose smaller or alternative energy sources (such as hybrid or all-electric).
As shown in Figure 1, from January 2017 to January 2018, the correlation coefficient between the per-bit price of DRAM and the annual increase in the number of bits is -0.88. Therefore, although the system manufacturer did not increase the price While reducing the amount of DRAM used in current shipments of electronic devices, there are many rumors that some smartphone makers are reducing DRAM in next-generation models, dropping the smartphone's built-in DRAM from 5GB to 4GB.
IC Insights believes that in 2018, major suppliers of DRAMs should be careful, and if shareholders are more happier, they will further alienate the DRAM customer base. If Chinese DRAM makers in the beginning will be able to launch a competitive product in the coming years , DRAM users may flock to these new suppliers, trying to get rid of the current upward pressure on the imminent price. The current DRAM makers may be subject to heavy retaliation.
Can Violet cooperate with Intel to reduce the gap in memory technology for three years?
South Korean media businesskorea revealed recently that Tsinghua Unisplendour is cooperating with Intel to develop 3D NAND flash memory chips. According to reports, according to the contract between the two parties, Intel decided to first provide wafers for NAND flash memory chips, and then provide 64-layer 3D NAND flash memory chips. With the support of Tsinghua Unisplendour's flash memory products, it can not only increase its competitiveness in sales, but also increase its brand awareness in the market.
This kind of flash memory technology comes from Intel and Micron's IMFlash. However, by early next year, both parties will end their cooperation and optimize their own products and services independently. At the same time, Intel will sell almost all of its shares to Micron and get out of it. If it is completely independent, it will Will greatly affect productivity and supply, and the current demand for flash memory market continues to be high, so Intel urgently needs a new partner.
Violet is a key target for the development of China's semiconductor industry. In the next five years, China will invest 1 trillion yuan in the semiconductor industry. The goal is to increase the semiconductor self-sufficiency rate to 70% by 2025. Ziguang naturally plays an extremely key role. Role. At present, Ziguang has invested US$30 billion to build its own memory, flash memory factory in Nanjing, and also build a SSD development and manufacturing facility in Suzhou with Jianxing.
Intel’s share of the NAND chip market ranks sixth behind SK Hynix. Intel last year regained market after retiring its memory chip business by relinquishing its business 20 years ago, but still has a very high level of technology. The company was in 2012. In cooperation with Micron Technology, which ranks fourth in the market share of NAND flash memory, and last year began manufacturing 64-layer 3D NAND flash memory chips. Intel is currently developing 96-layer 3D NAND chips. In addition, IMFlash is also developing a new generation of 96-layer stacked 3D flash memory. , And with the help of the 10nm manufacturing process, the capacity density will be double that of the current 64-story, and it is expected to settle in the future.
Some market watchers said that the technology gap between China's memory chip makers and their South Korean counterparts, which began production of 32-layer 3D NAND chips at the end of this year, is three years. This is because Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. had its global scope for the first time in August 2014. Mass production of 32-layer 3D NAND chips, August 2015 for 48-layer 3D chips, December 2016 for 64-layer chips. Higher-level and bit-stacked 3D NAND chips require a higher level of technology. Therefore, Time and energy alone cannot reduce the technological gap.
However, through cooperation with Intel, China is expected to rapidly narrow the technology gap and threaten South Korean memory chip makers including Samsung Electronics. China will be able to release high-performance 3D NAND products in advance, which is expected to be launched in the first two to three years. product.
Market research firm Market Realist said: 'The relationship between China and Intel may lead to excess supply and harm the entire NAND flash industry ecosystem.' An official from the South Korean semiconductor industry stated: 'Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are watching due to competitors With NAND expansion, the market conditions may get worse. This may increase the debate among global investment institutions that the price of NAND chips will fall dramatically.
In addition to Intel, China is also seeking to establish a technical cooperation relationship with Toshiba Corporation of Japan. Toshiba needs the approval of China's antitrust regulator before it can sell its memory chip units to a consortium led by Bain Capital, including SK Hynix. Therefore, China is using this to make a replacement deal with Toshiba. Insiders believe that this condition may be that China may require Toshiba to provide technical cooperation or product supply. In 2016, the price of memory has soared since the Chinese smart phone companies The demand for semiconductor memory has not always been adequately supplied, and these companies have been deeply dissatisfied.
Exclusion:
The strong price trend of the storage industry in the past two years has greatly affected the development of the domestic smart phone industry and the entire IC chip industry. Now regardless of the capital, the industrial chain or the terminal consumer, it is extremely sensitive to memory-related news and Vigilance. Recently, Xi'an Ziguang Guoxin's DDR4 memory chip has attracted everyone's attention.
The progress made in the domestic semiconductor storage industry means that it is characterized by economies of scale. The forces behind strong national support have entered the industry. The overall development of the memory industry is undoubtedly a considerable boost. After all, this industry has almost entered an oligopoly. In the competitive situation, starting from the driving force of universal scientific and technological advancement, many people and many Chinese people are happy to see the progress of domestic memory iterations. The other side believes that domestic memory is in high-frequency characteristics, compatibility, etc. All of them may face considerable difficulties. Whether they can attract enough customers, the profitability and pricing competitiveness need to be tested, and they may not have enough impact on the market.
Whether it was the disappointment of the earlier news of the Oolong, it was confirmed that the DDR4 particles had undergone CPU-Z validation, and even the disputes on Taobao's channels. The readers' hearts followed the ups and downs. The domestic memory represented by purple light even includes the entire domestic semiconductor industry, and the evaluation on the Internet is not uniform. Accompanying the ever-to-be overturned news is the mood of optimism and pessimism.
2. China's storage chip industry, overtaking, talent introduction is a shortcut;
Economic Daily - China Economic Net, March 11 (Reporter Yang Ming) IC Insights, a semiconductor market research company, recently announced that the international memory chip market will end in this year's boom. The main reason is that Chinese companies will implement storage by the end of this year. Mass production of chips.
The trend of China's memory chip industry not only affects the entire international semiconductor market, but also has become the largest variable in the operating profit and stock price of Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and other memory chip monopolies. The Korean companies that have been leading in this field have truly felt the truth. Threats. The South Korean media "Korea Economic News" recently reported the rapid development of China's memory chip industry with its 'rapid Chinese Semiconductor Rise.' Reports suggest that China's memory chip companies have used less than 3% under Chinese government's policies and financial support. In the past year, it has grown to a level comparable to that of a Taiwanese company that has produced semiconductors for 20 years. Korean companies should be wary that China surpassed Japanese companies in the past when Samsung surpassed Japanese companies, and it was surpassed by companies such as Changjiang Storage and Hefei Changxin.
In 2014, China promulgated the Outline for Promoting the Development of the National Integrated Circuit Industry. After intensive efforts and investment by the government and enterprises in recent years, it has formed three major R&D and manufacturing bases for storage semiconductors, namely Yangtze River Storage, Hefei Changxin and Fujian Jin. Hua. Nowadays, these three major memory chip bases are building local memory chip factories. It is expected that the storage chip factories will start production as soon as the second half of 2018. In other words, 2018 will become the mainstream development of domestic memory chips. The first year of the year.
The most common memory chips are NAND Flash and DRAM. NAND flash memory is a non-volatile memory technology that can save data after power is turned off, such as 16G/32G/64G flash memory on a mobile phone and solid state disk on a computer. The use of NAND Flash. DRAM is a dynamic random access memory, can only keep the data for a short time, and shutdown will lose data, the computer uses 4G/8G/16G memory is DRAM.
According to the situation held by reporters, Changjiang Storage will focus on NAND Flash products, while Fujian Jinhua and Hefei Changxin will target DRAM. Among the three companies, the Yangtze River has the fastest storage movement. It consists of Ziguang Group and the National IC Industry Investment Fund. Co-financing was established as the company with the highest level of technology and capital in China's memory chip industry. In the second half of last year, Ziguang again received a total of RMB 150 billion in financing from China Development Bank and Huaxin Investment, which helped Ziguang solve the storage chip factory. Funding issues provide important guarantees. Since NAND Flash has relatively low DRAM-related technical difficulty, Yangtze River Storage will become the first Chinese storage chip company to achieve mass production. The other two companies will implement trial production this year. It will begin mass production next year.
Although we will soon have our own domestic memory chips, there is still a big gap between the technology of our memory chip companies and leading international companies. According to the analysis of South Korean semiconductor industry experts, if Yangtze River storage is on schedule for volume production, Samsung Electronics leads the technology of the Yangtze River. The difference is 4-5 years, and 6-8 years for Hefei Changxin, and 8-10 years for Jinhua, Fujian. The technical gap with SK Hynix is different depending on the situation of each company, and is roughly 1-2 years shorter. Considering that the DRAM volume production of Hefei Changxin and Fujian Jinhua is expected to be one year later than the NAND stored in the Yangtze River, the gap between China and South Korea's technology can be judged as NAND for 5 years and DRAM for 10 years.
For a long time, the memory chip market has been monopolized by a few large international companies. The NAND Flash market is dominated by the Toggle DDR camp jointly held by Samsung and Toshiba and the ONFI camp led by Intel and Micron, Samsung, Toshiba, SanDisk, Micron, SK Hynix, etc. The giants accounted for more than 80% of the market share, of which Samsung is the leader, with a market share of about 38%.
In the DRAM market, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Magnesium occupy a major market share. Samsung’s market share is nearly half, and SK Hynix’s market share is close to 30%, compared with 4-6 for market share. The combined market share of manufacturers is only about 5%.
It can be seen that the storage chip supplier is firmly controlled by a handful of manufacturers, and there is a winner-take-all phenomenon. This is very favorable for international companies that have a dominant market share, which is very disadvantageous for catchers. How to get the core technology, reducing the technological gap as soon as possible becomes the key.
In the past, Chinese companies had attempted to acquire advanced technologies through cross-border mergers. However, Western countries have been shunning China in high technology, and Ziguang’s acquisition of Magang and attempts to acquire SanDisk through the acquisition of Western Digital have finally ended. Toshiba’s storage business is also sold out. Chinese buyers discriminate against each other. According to the report of the Asahi Shimbun newspaper, the Japanese government began its study and if it is a company sold to the mainland or Taiwan, it will advise Toshiba to suspend or reconsider it according to foreign exchange and foreign trade laws.
From this point of view, the road to overseas acquisition cannot be opened, and the introduction of core technical personnel from abroad has become the only suitable choice in the current situation. This will also be a shortcut for the Chinese storage chip industry to realize overtaking in the near future.
The reporter heard from a Korean friend that a real case of a semiconductor company in South Korea has been counteracted by the introduction of talents. Hynix, the world’s second-largest company in terms of memory chips, was on the verge of bankruptcy at the beginning of this century and was almost purchased by Micron. The company’s senior engineer named Cui Zhenlu, who was dug up from Samsung’s semiconductor division, played a key role. He led his team of technicians, through technological innovation, to upgrade the company’s R&D capabilities to the same level as Samsung’s in less than two years. Even the outside world once rumors that Hynix's product cost is lower than that of Samsung. The rapid advancements in technology have made Hynix back to life.
In fact, Chinese companies have already begun the work of introducing talented people. Taiwan’s semiconductor talent has become a target for mainland executives. Especially after Micron took over the subspecies of Huayake, Huayike’s internal minds were unstable, and a large number of engineers collectively jumped to China’s storage. Chip companies. It can be said that precisely because of the influx of Taiwanese talents, Chinese companies have quickly caught up with the pace of Taiwanese semiconductor companies and become a force to accelerate the development of China's memory chip industry.
However, we should also see that Taiwan’s technology is not competitive with those of South Korean and American companies. Currently, Taiwan’s memory chip companies that have survived are mostly low-end DRAMs that Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are not willing to produce. In the future, Taiwanese technology will have limited help to narrow the gap between China and the world’s advanced memory chip technologies. Therefore, how to find ways to introduce senior talents from Korean manufacturers who master core technologies may be a question that Chinese companies must seriously consider.
3. A new level of innovation in Xiamen's city construction
The reporter learned from the Municipal Bureau of Science and Technology yesterday that the Ministry of Industry and Information recently formally agreed to establish a state-level “core fire” dual-creation base (platform) in Xiamen. The city has become one of the seven cities approved for construction in China. The construction of the platform will be for me. IC companies, especially small and medium-sized design companies, provide better innovation and entrepreneurial environments and promote the sustained and rapid development of the integrated circuit industry. They have been approved to build state-level 'core fire' dual-creation bases (platforms), and the city’s technological innovation has led the industrial transformation and upgrading. The remarkable achievements of the party were inseparable. Since the 19th CPC National Congress was convened, the city’s scientific and technological innovation work has carried out in depth the socialist ideology of Chinese characteristics and the party’s Nineteenth Congress spirit in the new era of Xi Jinping, and has closely followed the construction of the “Five Development” demonstration cities by the municipal party committee and municipal government. Strategic deployment: Focusing on the construction of the Fuxiaquan National Independent Innovation Demonstration Zone (Xiamen Area), it will push forward the structural reforms on the supply side in the field of science and technology, optimize the innovative and entrepreneurial ecological environment, promote the transfer of scientific and technological achievements, lead the growth of new industries, and promote technological innovation. Fully integrated into the main battlefield of economic and social development, the construction of an innovative city will reach a new level and continue to write a new chapter.
Looking at the achievements of the city since last year: a group of top ten cities in the creation of strong IP cities, eight key intellectual property operation service system cities, a pilot city for comprehensive intellectual property management reform, and innovation in China's urban science and technology The Index ranks 11th in the country, and the China Innovation and Entrepreneurship Index ranks 9th. In recent years, the city has been guided by scientific and technological innovation. It has continued to implement scientific and technological innovation and upgrading projects. Technological innovation has led to remarkable results in industrial transformation and upgrading. Related statistics show that 2017 In the year, the city invested a total of 1.451 billion yuan in city-level financial science and technology funds, and obtained national science and technology funding of more than 1.1 billion yuan. It is expected that the total R&D investment (R&D) of the whole society will be nearly 14 billion yuan, accounting for about 3.25% of GDP. The turnover of technical contracts is three. It has grown nearly threefold year-on-year and reached nearly 7 billion yuan last year. The number of invention patents per 10,000 people in the city has reached 23.5, which is 3 times the average of the province and 2.4 times that of the country. The increase in the number of patent grants ranks first among sub-provincial cities. two.
The city's high-tech industry is becoming a new engine for high-quality economic and social development. Last year, the city achieved a net increase of 200 new national high-tech enterprises. The city’s national high-tech enterprises currently reach 1,425, accounting for 46.6% of the province. High-tech enterprises The rapid development of the clusters has made the high-tech industry's contribution to economic and social development increasingly prominent. Last year, the high-tech industries in the regulations realized industrial output value of 424.138 billion yuan, accounting for 71.71% of the city's total industrial output value.
At the same time, the new industries and new industries are accelerating the formation of new economic growth points. The biological and new pharmaceutical industries have become the benchmark industries that demonstrate the city’s ability for independent innovation—a series of HIV testing kits have been applied in 42 countries. The use of more than 500 million people; The third branch in the world, The first cervical cancer vaccine in the country has completed Phase III clinical application and listed on the market... In 2017, the main business income of the whole industry is expected to reach 64.6 billion yuan, including sales revenue of productive enterprises. A total of 48.9 billion yuan was realized. The IC industry has made intensive efforts - Sanan IC has been put into operation, and Lianxin IC has been mass-produced. In 2017, the output value of integrated circuit companies in our city reached 14.377 billion yuan, an increase of 38.39% year-on-year, ranking first in the country. V. The compound semiconductor material industry chain is taking shape, with Sanan Optoelectronics Co., Ltd. as the representative of the third generation of high-voltage, high-temperature and high-frequency third-generation semiconductor materials, GaN, and silicon carbide, which will initially form a mass production scale, and will be China's power electronics. The development of 5G communication technology provides strong support.