Looking at the historical situation, the DRAM market is the most volatile part of the major IC product market segments. In the past 2 years, the DRAM market fell by 8% in 2016 and by 77% in 2017. This is a good example. .
Over the past 30 years, the price of DRAM has continued to fall. In the 34 years from 1978 to 2012, the average price per bit of DRAM fell at an average annual rate of 33%. However, from 2012 to 2017, the average DRAM per bit The year-on-year decline in prices has shrunk to 3%. By 2017, the price of DRAMs had fallen before the reversal, which was a reversal of 47%, the largest increase since 1978.
From the perspective of the increase in the number of DRAM bits, the number of DRAM bits increased by 40% in 2016 and 20% in 2017. As shown in Figure 1, from the May of 2017 to the January of 2018, 9 months, the DRAM bit The average annual growth rate of the dollar amount is only 13%. In 2018, the growth rate of DRAM bit number will maintain at 20%.
Figure 1 also lists the DRAM price per month for each month from January 2017 to January 2018. As the chart shows, the price of DRAM per gigabit has been rising sharply, January 2018 and January 2017. Compared with the month, the price has increased by 47%. There is no doubt that electronic system manufacturers are currently scrambling to adjust and adapt to the skyrocketing price of memory.
DRAM is often considered to be a petroleum-like commodity. Like most commodities, product demand is elastic, which means that price increases will dampen demand, while lower prices will increase and create new uses. For example, when oil prices are low At the time, many consumers buy large-scale suvs because there is little concern about the efficiency of using gallons of gasoline. However, when oil prices rise, consumers often choose smaller or alternative energy sources (such as hybrid or all-electric).
Figure 1
As shown in Figure 1, from January 2017 to January 2018, the correlation coefficient between the per-bit price of DRAM and the annual increase in the number of bits is -0.88. Therefore, although the system manufacturer did not increase the price While reducing the amount of DRAM used in current shipments of electronic devices, there are many rumors that some smartphone makers are reducing DRAM in next-generation models, dropping the smartphone's built-in DRAM from 5GB to 4GB.
IC Insights believes that in 2018, major suppliers of DRAMs should be careful and if shareholders are more happier, they will further alienate the DRAM customer base. If Chinese DRAM makers in the start-up could be able to launch a competitive product in the coming years , DRAM users may flock to these new suppliers, trying to get rid of the imminent upward pressure on prices. The current DRAM makers may be subject to heavy retaliation.
Can Violet cooperate with Intel to reduce the gap in memory technology for three years?
South Korean media businesskorea disclosed in recent days that Tsinghua Unisplendix is working with Intel to develop 3D NAND flash memory chips. According to reports, according to the contract between the two parties, Intel decided to first provide wafers for NAND flash memory chips, and then provide 64-layer 3D NAND flash memory chips. With the support of Tsinghua Unisplendour's flash memory products, it can not only increase its competitiveness in sales, but also increase its brand awareness in the market.
This kind of flash memory technology comes from Intel and Micron's IMFlash. However, by early next year, both parties will end their cooperation and optimize their own products and services independently. At the same time, Intel will sell almost all of its shares to Micron and get out of it. If it is completely independent, it will Will greatly affect productivity and supply, and the current demand for flash memory market continues to be high, so Intel urgently needs a new partner.
Violet is a key target for the development of China's semiconductor industry. In the next five years, China will invest 1 trillion yuan in the semiconductor industry. The goal is to increase the semiconductor self-sufficiency rate to 70% by 2025. Ziguang naturally plays an extremely key role. Role. At present, Ziguang has invested US$30 billion to build its own memory, flash memory factory in Nanjing, and also build a SSD development and manufacturing plant in Suzhou with Jianxing.
Intel’s share of the NAND chip market ranks sixth behind SK Hynix. Intel last year re-entered the market after relinquishing its memory chip business 20 years ago, but still has a high level of technology. The company in 2012 In cooperation with Micron Technology, which ranks fourth in the market share of NAND flash memory, and last year began producing 64-layer 3D NAND flash memory chips. Intel is currently developing 96-layer 3D NAND chips. In addition, IMFlash is also developing a new generation of 96-layer stacked 3D flash memory. , And with the help of the 10nm manufacturing process, the capacity density will be double that of the current 64-story, and it is expected to settle in the future.
Some market watchers said that the technology gap between China's memory chip makers and their South Korean counterparts, which began production of 32-layer 3D NAND chips at the end of this year, is three years. This is because Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. had its global scope for the first time in August 2014. Mass production of 32-layer 3D NAND chips, August 2015 for 48-layer 3D chips, December 2016 for 64-layer chips. Higher-level and bit-stacked 3D NAND chips require a higher level of technology. Therefore, Time and energy alone cannot reduce the technological gap.
However, through cooperation with Intel, China is expected to rapidly narrow the technology gap and threaten South Korean memory chip makers including Samsung Electronics. China will be able to release high-performance 3D NAND products in advance, which is expected to be launched in the first two to three years. product.
Market research firm Market Realist said: 'China's cooperation with Intel may lead to excess supply and harm the entire NAND flash industry ecosystem.' An official from the South Korean semiconductor industry stated: 'Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are concerned because of competitors' With NAND expansion, the market conditions may get worse. This may increase the debate among global investment institutions that the price of NAND chips will fall dramatically.
In addition to Intel, China is also seeking to establish a technical cooperation relationship with Toshiba Corporation of Japan. Toshiba needs the approval of China's antitrust regulator before it can sell its memory chip units to a consortium led by Bain Capital, including SK Hynix. Therefore, China is using this to make a replacement deal with Toshiba. Insiders believe that this condition may be that China may require Toshiba to provide technical cooperation or product supply. In 2016, the price of memory has soared since the Chinese smart phone companies The demand for semiconductor memory has not always been adequately supplied, and these companies have been deeply dissatisfied.
Exclusion:
The strong price trend of the storage industry in the past two years has greatly affected the development of the domestic smart phone industry and the entire IC chip industry. Now whether it is the capital side, the industrial chain or the terminal consumer, it is extremely sensitive to memory related messages and Vigilance. Recently, Xi'an Ziguang Guoxin's DDR4 memory chip has attracted everyone's attention.
The progress made in the domestic semiconductor storage industry means that it is characterized by economies of scale. The forces behind strong national support have entered the industry. The overall development of the memory industry is undoubtedly a considerable boost. After all, this industry has almost entered an oligopoly. In the competitive situation, starting from the driving force of universal scientific and technological advancement, many people and many Chinese people are happy to see the progress of domestic memory iterations. The other side believes that domestic memory has high-frequency characteristics, compatibility, etc. All of them may face considerable difficulties. Whether they can attract enough customers, the profitability space and pricing competitiveness need to be tested, and they may not have enough impact on the market.
Whether it was the disappointment of the earlier news of the Oolong, it was confirmed that the DDR4 particles had undergone CPU-Z validation, and even the disputes on Taobao's channels. The readers' hearts were followed by continuous fluctuations. The domestic memory represented by purple light even includes the entire domestic semiconductor industry. The evaluation on the Internet is not uniform. Accompanying the news that is constantly overthrowing is the mood of optimism and pessimism.