In accordance with the opinions of experts, the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association has revised the threshold and interval of the monthly prosperity index model for the China Copper Industry based on the growth rate of various economic indicators under the “new normal”. From this period, The Boom Index report uses revised data.
In January 2018, the monthly prosperity index of the Chinese copper industry was 29.8, down 2.38 points from the previous month and operating in the 'normal' interval. The leading composite index was 101.43, up 0.19 points from the previous month. The consensus index was 62.46. Compared with the previous month, it decreased by 4.83 points (the monthly prosperity index of the copper industry in the past 13 months is shown in Table 1). The monitoring results of the monthly prosperity index of the China Copper Industry showed that the copper industry index has dropped slightly and is currently operating in the 'normal' range. .
Boom index falls back within the 'normal' range
The monthly prosperity index of the China Copper Industry shows that the monthly prosperity index of the copper industry declined slightly in January and fell 2.38 points from the previous month. The current prosperity index is in the 'normal' range. The trend of the monthly prosperity index of the Chinese copper industry is shown in Figure 1. As shown.
The monthly prosperity signal of the copper industry is visible (see Figure 2), and in January 2018, among the nine indicators that constitute the monthly prosperity index of the industry, the LME copper settlement price, with the exception of the power cable located in the colder region. , M2, import volume index, total investment, house sales area, production index, main business income, total profit are all located in the 'normal' interval.
Advance composite index rebounded
In January 2018, the composite index for the primary industry of copper was 101.43, up 0.19 points from the previous month (see Figure 3). Among the six indexes that constituted the composite index for the primary color industry, three rose and three decreased. Among the three indicators for growth, LME copper settlement price increased by 21.47% year-on-year, M2 increased by 8.25% year-on-year, and total investment in copper industry increased by 30.19% year-on-year. Among the three indicators that decreased year-on-year, import volume index fell by 1.36% year-on-year, and the area of commercial housing sold. The year-on-year decrease of 3.33%, power cable decreased by 14.3% year-on-year.
Industrial production and operation are stable, industry pressure has not yet appeared
The production and operation of copper mines continued to improve, and their profitability was at a good level. In terms of smelting, several copper mines in Chile and Peru faced wage negotiations in 2018, and the market’s concern about global copper supply has been rising. In many regions, there will be 200,000 to 400,000 tons of copper smelting capacity released in the future, and the new and expanded copper mines are limited, so the situation of tight supply of copper concentrates will hardly change in the future. In this context, imported copper concentrates The processing fee will go down again and it will decline compared to 2017. It is expected that the profitability of copper smelting operations will decrease. In the processing sector, except for air conditioners, the automobile industry's consumption performance is better than the same period of 2017, which drives the relevant copper processing enterprises to produce well. Consumption in the power cable industry may not be as expected.
In terms of recycled copper, the price of copper metal rose rapidly in 2017, the spread between refined copper and recycled copper expanded, and the demand for scrap copper procurement in the market increased. However, as China’s environmental protection requirements increase, China’s regulatory system for the import of scrap copper continues to increase. It is expected that China's scrap copper imports will continue to decline, and this trend will continue in 2018. The continuous reduction in the supply of recycled copper raw materials will boost the price of recycled copper metals. Refined copper, the spread of recycled copper has narrowed, and the profitability of recycled copper producers Being squeezed.
In general, the performance of the copper industry in sub-links varies, but the overall production and operation are stable. Under the circumstances that the raw material supply pressure and smelter production concentration release have not yet emerged, the preliminary judgment of the color industry prosperity index in the first few months of 2018 is still Will run in the 'normal' interval.