1. In the national giant's eyes, the opportunities for mainland passive component manufacturers to contend are small;
According to the micro-network news, the giants of the MLCC and resistance price increase notifications frequently stated that the effect of price increases on the company’s gross profit margin and revenue growth is not significant. On March 8th, Guo Tai’s chairman Chen Taiming was at the legal meeting. Emphasizing that the company's gross profit margin will increase in the fourth quarter of 2017 mainly due to product mix optimization and new capacity development. The price increase effect is only a small part, and he believes that due to quality and technical barriers, as well as the market, etc., China It is not easy for mainland passive component manufacturers to compete. The future gap will be even greater.
Out of stock will continue until 2019
Guoju is currently the world’s largest resistor and third largest capacitor factory. In 2017, the country’s giant revenues totaled 32.255 billion yuan, up 16.1% year-on-year. Among them, revenue for the fourth quarter of 2017 hit a single-quarter high, and gross margins hit 43.7 in one fell swoop. %, 19% year-on-year growth.
Guo Tai Chairman Chen Taiming stated that the increase in revenue and gross profit margin was mainly due to the optimization of product mix and the opening of new production capacity, and the price increase effect was only a small part.
However, in the past year, passive components have risen sharply, and some of the MLCCs have risen by more than 10 times. The giant has issued at least four price increase notifications. According to incomplete statistics, Guo Ju was on April 20, 2017, June 19, 2017 respectively. The MLCC and resistance price increase notifications were issued on September 7 and December 1 and the overall gains have doubled. In addition, at the beginning of this year, Guo Ju was the first to start firing resistance prices. The Guoju is almost ahead of the MLCC. , Resistance rises in price.
In this regard, Chen Taiming’s explanation is that if good performance is mainly due to the price increase effect, then passive components manufacturers in the industry should be consistent, but from the perspective of revenue in the fourth quarter of last year, the company’s revenue and gross margin growth rate. Far better than other peers, the representative is the contribution of its own product portfolio optimization and new production capacity.
This explanation cannot deny that Guo Ju benefited a lot from the rise of passive components such as MLCC. In the history of passive components, there were also two surges in price, 1987-1988 and 2000 respectively. The killer demand in the year drives the price increase.
Chen Taiming said that at present, the price of passive components is very different from the previous ones. Although there is no killer application, the demand will come from mobile phones, automobiles, AI, 5G and other parties. All kinds of demand will replace single killer products, especially After 5G startup, 20GHz high frequency environment will change human life, VCSEL, 3D sensing, RF components, base stations, and other types of heavy components also pull passive components, this structural change extends the boom life.
With the application of these applications, the price rise of passive components represented by MLCC has lasted for at least 15 months, and will continue to be out of stock in the future. Chen Taiming is optimistic that this boom will last until 2019, especially for automotive use. High-level demand for work regulations and other requirements has been rising. The price is 2 to 2.5 times that of general products. The entire passive component industry is booming.
Not afraid of competition from mainland manufacturers for expansion
In the face of passive stock price rises, although Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and medium-sized passive component factories have gradually released plans for expansion, Japanese manufacturers are focusing on high-priced, high-margin automotive and industrial applications. The rapid recovery of Taiwan plants is considered to be the main source of passive factors in the future. Among them, Continental Fenghua Hi-Tech and Yuyang Science and Technology are accelerating the expansion of MLCCs in order to narrow the gap with the big plants.
However, Chen Taiming does not seem to be worried. He said that although mainland manufacturers continue to plan production capacity, on the one hand, the planned products are relatively low, and the application, layout, and professional services are quite different from those of Guo Ju. On the other hand, quality is not A large number of certification and use. In addition, in the field of MLCC, the proportion of products of mainland manufacturers does not exceed 8%, even if the capacity expansion of 30%, only 2.4% of the production capacity in the overall market, the impact on the overall passive components market and Not much.
Chen Taiming stated that because mainland manufacturers cannot lay out high-end products, Guoju ranks first in the world in terms of resistance, and MLCC is the third. With such economies of scale, mainland manufacturers have higher barriers to entry, and China’s giants are world-class. Sales channels, Greater China, North America, Europe, Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, etc. Greater China's product substitution rate using mainland manufacturers is not high, and Guoge will continue to serve customers on high-end products, and will further expand in the future. The gap with the mainland manufacturers.
In addition, the country’s giants are not afraid of the mainland manufacturers’ empiricism also comes from early deployment. It is understood that Guo Ju saw the increase in demand for passive components as early as the end of 2016, and plans to expand production ahead of schedule. The capital expenditure in the past three years reached 12 billion yuan. Yuan, is the sum of the past five years.
Chen Taiming said that the country’s giant chip resistance capacity reached 90 billion units per month at the end of last year, and it will reach 120 billion units in September this year. Japan and the United States still account for less than half of their peers. The monthly production capacity of MLCC in the fourth quarter of last year was 40 billion units. At the end of the third quarter of this year to the beginning of the fourth quarter will reach 50 billion.
What are the future needs and gaps?
Passive components have historically been twice price-reduced due to killer applications, but this wave of out-of-stock prices is not caused by the demand for a single product. Rather, this is a structural change in the industry. Meanwhile, with 5G , AI, AR and other new applications, market demand will continue to increase.
In the past, the relatively concentrated mobile phone market growth is not significant. Chen Taiming said that the future mobile phone market sales growth is only 5 to 10%, but due to the improvement of function, driven by the huge increase in passive components, the Apple iPhone, for example, iPohone 7 uses passive The number of components is 420/piece, and the iPhone 8 and iPhone X are increased to 600~620. In contrast, in the new markets such as autos, the automotive parts and components are developing toward the electronic direction. The demand for passive components has increased by 5 times. The price of related products is also consumer electronics. 2-3 times, so after manufacturers shift their production capacity to supply vehicles and industrial demand, they do not want to supply bulk products with low gross profit margins. The relative capacity expansion is also in an orderly manner, and 5G will apply more passively. Components, so this wave of demand strength will hold for a long time, these growth are not before.
In addition, the electronic trend of the Internet will not stop. Amazon will open no one store, sensors will improve human life, and generate a large demand for components. In the past, because of the low gross profit margin, the production capacity was less distributed, and now the way of transferring production capacity, Turning to the regulation and industrial use, even if the production capacity is expanded, it will not be transferred to the original low-margin period, and the production capacity will be expanded more regularly.
However, Chen Taiming revealed that the delivery date of equipment manufacturers has been extended from the past 6 to 9 months to 14 to 18 months, and the safety stock of passive components has dropped from 90 days to less than 30 days. The gap is still 25% to 30%. .
Driven by new applications such as 5G, AI, AR, and IoT, the application of passive components such as MLCCs and resistors will be fully enhanced, and the gap between supply and demand will still be 25%~30%. Then, the structural market demand for passive components in this wave. In the Mainland, the mainland manufacturers will really say as Chen Taiming, is it difficult to play a role in the market and have been widened? Although it is currently impossible to judge, at least it is seen that mainland manufacturers are launching challenges. (Proofreading/Fan Rong)
2. Softbank accidental 'leak' Qualcomm Snapdragon 855 details: Integrated X50 baseband;
On March 9th, Microblog reported that foreign media had recently read the financial report of Softbank in February 2017 on the third quarter of fiscal year 2017. It was unexpectedly discovered that the financial report had appeared on the Qualcomm Snapdragon 855 platform. Some of the information, that is, Qualcomm Snapdragon 855 will integrate X50 baseband (28nm process, the maximum download rate of 5Gbps), which means that Xiaolong 855 platform will be the first to join the support of 5G.
Prior to Qualcomm released data show that the X50 baseband can support 3.5GHz/4.5GHz IF (Sub 6GHz, China will use) and 28GHz/38GHz high frequency (millimeter wave), is currently the main chip in the 5G experiment.
It is understood that the Qualcomm 855 processor is called 'Snapdragon 855 Fusion' and similar to the Apple A10 Fusion, which implies strong performance. At the same time, some analysts pointed out that this may imply that the Qualcomm Snapdragon processor will be used in mobile phones, notebooks, etc. More types of mobile terminals are being used.
Qualcomm Snapdragon 855 is expected to be released by the end of this year. The first terminals equipped with 855 will be available in 2019.
Qualcomm Snapdragon 855 uses a 7nm manufacturing process. Considering that Softbank is the parent company of ARM and a large number of IP authorizations for Snapdragon processors come from ARM, the outsiders believe that the information released by Softbank has a lot of authenticity. (Proofreading/Fan Rong)
3. Marvell looks optimistic, with revenue exceeding expectations in the previous quarter;
According to micro-messaging, US chip maker Marvell announced fourth-quarter earnings for fiscal year 2018 after the US stocks on Thursday. Revenue was US$615 million, an increase of 8.7% from the same period last year; net profit reached US$49 million, or equivalent to per share. Surplus (EPS) 0.1 US dollars, better than the loss of 0.16 US dollars per share in the same period last year.
After adjusting, Marvell's EPS for the fourth quarter of 2018 was $0.32, and its gross margin improved from 57.8% to 62.3%.
According to the FactSet survey, analysts originally expected revenue of $611 million, and EPS of $0.31. Based on this, not only are the results better than expected, but they are also good for the future.
Marvell's acquisition of competitor Cavium for $6 billion last year is still in operation. The company's chief executive Matt Murphy said that the transition has made great progress and he is looking forward to the coming year.
For Marvell, Matt Murphy thinks that it is a representative company in the semiconductor industry. It has great technology, architecture, engineering and products. 'We will refocus on markets like storage, networking, cloud computing and infrastructure. This is the future of the company. The main driving force. We are back on the right track and we have made great progress with our customers. We will use our cash and debt financing to promote this merger with Cavium. 'Mat Murphy took control of Marvell from July 2016. When he joined Marvell, he set three main goals: rectify the financial situation, establish a management team, and reintegrate the company.
Looking forward to this season, Marvell expects revenue to be in the range of 5.85-6.15 billion U.S. dollars, with EPS between 0.29-0.33 U.S. dollars. Control analysts estimate revenue of 591 million U.S. dollars and EPS of 0.29 U.S. dollars.
Marvell closed up 2.66% to $24.32 during normal trading hours on that day, reaching a new high since 2006. (Proofreading/Liu Yang)
4. Waiting for approval from Chinese regulatory authorities. Toshiba's chip sales transaction will be completed at the latest by June;
According to Reuters, Beijing Times reported on March 9, Toshiba’s US$18 billion storage chip business sales transaction is currently awaiting approval from China’s regulatory authorities. Toshiba expects that if this transaction cannot be completed before the end of March according to an agreed deadline. Completed, completed by June at the latest.
Yasuo Naruke, head of Toshiba's chip division, told reporters on Friday: 'We have been making every effort to complete the transaction in March. Even if the transaction cannot be completed this month, it will be in April, May or 6 Finished sometime in the month.'
Toshiba is the world’s second-largest maker of NAND flash memory chips. Last year it agreed to sell its semiconductor business to a consortium led by American private equity firm Bain Capital to fill the financial hole left by the bankruptcy of US nuclear electronics companies.
However, it is generally believed that it is unlikely that Toshiba will obtain the necessary regulatory approval before the end of fiscal year 2017 (up to March) because the review by Chinese regulators generally takes at least six months. In light of Toshiba’s overseas acquisition at the end of last year. Investors' capital injection, so Toshiba is not as eager to complete the transaction as before.
Sources said that if this transaction cannot be completed in March, Toshiba can choose to withdraw from the transaction. Some Toshiba activist shareholders opposed the deal, arguing that the infusion of new capital made it unnecessary for Toshiba to sell the chip business. As it was unable to promote social infrastructure and other core With the growth of business, the flash memory chip business has been the source of most of Toshiba's profits. (Compilation/箫雨)
5.DENSO coded MCU factory Renesas, holding shares rose from 0.5% to 5%;
Japan's auto parts maker DENSO Corporation announced on the 9th that it will increase its stake in Renesas Electronics Corporation (6723.JP), and its shareholding ratio will increase from 0.5% to 5% to accelerate the development of various on-board systems, including scale More than ever, a more advanced and sophisticated automated driving system. DENSO pointed out that Renesas has cutting-edge semiconductor technology that acts as a key device in this type of system.
DENSO said that in order to meet the needs of complex vehicle controls, the functions of on-board microcontrollers have been increasing, which has led to more difficult design and manufacturing processes. Manufacturers are expected to combine communication and artificial intelligence (AI) related technologies to accelerate the development of New chips for advanced systems such as autopilot, electrification, Internet of Things and connected driving.
Thomson Reuters reported that the Industrial Innovation Agency (INCJ), which holds a 50.1% stake in Renesas, issued a press release indicating that it will release Renesas shares for DENSO.
The Harvest XQ Global Winner system offer shows that as of 12:23 pm on the 9th Taipei time, Renesas Electronics gained 3.99% to 1,173.0 yen. The opening price has so far reached a maximum of 1,227.0 yen (up 8.8%).
The Nikkei Asia Review reported at the end of last year that Suzuki Motor Company, Subaru Land Company, Daihatsu Motors, and Hino Motor Co., Ltd. dispatched five engineers to join EV CA Spirit, making this electric vehicle set up in September 2017. The development joint venture will have 60 R&D personnel. The automotive industry is entering the 'CASE (Connect, Autonomous, Shared, Electric)' generation. PricewaterhouseCoopers Consulting estimates 2030 mobile, on-demand services in the US, Europe and China ((Mobility-as The market size of -a-Service, MaaS) will rise to 1.5 trillion US dollars, with an average annual increase of 24%.
Suzuki, Subaru, Daihatsu and Hino agreed to join the Toyota Motor Corp-led electric vehicle development plan on December 30, 2017. EV Common Architecture Spirit was established in September 2017 ( Abbreviation: EV CA Spirit) The shareholder structure will remain unchanged: Toyota will hold 90% of the shares, Mazda, Denso own 5% of the shares, respectively.
6. Passing Softbank to Consider Using Chip Company ARM to Loan US$5 Billion
Sina Technology News Beijing time morning news on March 9, according to Reuters reports, professionals from the banking industry revealed that Japan Softbank considers its British chip design company ARM obtained about 5 billion US dollars in loans.
Softbank acquired ARM for 32 billion U.S. dollars in 2016, but informed sources stated that the company now hopes to optimize investment and obtain some cash.
Informed sources said that Goldman Sachs will provide advice for potential deals, and trading plans have been shown to some large institutional investors in the past month.
Informed sources said that the purpose of this exploratory measure is to understand whether this debt financing is feasible, and the current feedback is more positive.
Softbank may initiate the loan in the form of an ordinary syndicate in March this year. However, it is unclear whether Softbank and other shareholders will decide to continue the deal.
'From a financing perspective, the deal is feasible. Adding leverage to ARM is a speculative transaction, and Softbank and shareholders are currently considering whether to advance, and the timing and scale of the transaction.' Informed sources said.