Ethylene as the most important large-scale petrochemical raw materials, the global performance of the industry in 2017? Future development trend? The following will give you a detailed explanation of ethylene production-driven and future evolution, integration of refining and chemical raw materials and the diversification of the future development Trend, outsourcing of ethane cracking into a new direction, ethane market protection.
This article is based on 'Shen Wan Petrochemical' ethylene industry depth report finishing editor.
Do you know that petrochemical raw materials are vinyl?
Ethylene, as the most important large petrochemical raw material, has the following main features:
There are many downstream derivatives, labor division is clear, supply creates demand.
Downstream ethylene is widely used, the plant put into operation generally will bring the downstream derivatives package, so as to create more demand.
Often large petrochemical companies put into operation after the ethylene, other small and medium enterprises supporting investment, comprehensive utilization of by-products such as: the use of carbon five to do the petroleum resin, carbon four components make methyl ethyl ketone, acrylonitrile by-product hydrocyanic acid MMA.
The total demand is large but the trade volume is small. The output of ethylene in China in 2017 is 18.22 million Ton, equivalent demand about 40 million Ton, mainly based on the demand for downstream products such as polyethylene, ethylene glycol, styrene, etc. Currently, the profitability of downstream styrene, ethylene glycol and other good global ethylene demand of about 150 million tons However, the annual trade volume is estimated to be only 4 to 6 million tons.
The proportion of contract goods is high, the spot is small, the leverage effect is obvious.In 2017, the import volume of ethylene in our country is 2.15 million tons, and the domestic large-scale petrochemical plant basically realizes the ethylene supply. The producers of purchased ethylene in our country are mainly: Sanjiang Chemical Ethane), Jiangyin Li Shide (styrene), Xinpu Chemical (EDC, styrene), Changzhou Donghao (styrene) and so on.
Ethylene investment huge scale, the future integration of refining and chemical industry, diversification of raw materials is the trend. Historically, ethylene plant and refining unit is generally run independently; with the company and the expansion of capital strength, emphasizing the integration of refining, domestic, such as Shanghai Petrochemical, Zhenhai, Fujian United Petrochemical, etc. are all oil refining and ethylene integration companies, but many are operating separately in the international community.
Ethylene is the core of petrochemical products with huge investment. Newer projects such as 1.5 million tons of ethylene from Lake Charles, Sasol, South Africa, with ethane as cracker and downstream EO, LDPE, MEG, etc., with a total investment of 8.9 billion US dollar; Dow and Ami Sadara project 1.5 million tons of ethylene, naphtha, ethane feed, a total of 26 devices, with a total investment of 20 billion US dollars.
1, steam cracking is still the most important production process
There are five major ethylene production processes, namely: Steam cracking; coal to olefins, methanol to olefins; Fischer-Tropsch synthesis; refinery exhaust Steam cracking is the most important ethylene production process, the raw material can be naphtha, condensate, hydrogenated tail oil, ethane, propylene, butane, etc., can be a single raw material or mixed feed.
According to our statistics, there are currently about 300 sets of ethylene plants in the world with a total capacity of about 170 million tons, corresponding to a total demand of about 150 million tons / year. Since ethylene needs to be stored at minus 100 ° C, The form of sales.
From the corresponding ethylene distribution point of view, China's ethylene demand from the point of view, the dependence on imports remains high in Western Europe and the Middle East is still excess ethylene from the ethylene raw materials point of view, the Middle East and the United States is mainly based on ethane as raw materials, but due to the Middle East Of the quota of ethane has run out, the future of new ethylene plant will be naphtha as the main raw material.
2, ethylene scale tends to large-scale
Vapor cracking of ethylene is usually carried out in a plurality of parallel cracking furnaces with cracked outlet temperatures close to 850 ° C and a mixture of olefinic gases entering the quench zone upon exiting the cracking furnace reaction zone wherein water or heavy oil is used to cool the gas and quench .
At this time, the hydrocarbon-containing gas is liquefied or purified by compressing the air to a high pressure and cooling to a very low temperature; the liquefied components are separated into ethylene, propylene, mixed carbons, crude pyrolysis gasoline C5-C8 mixture), hydrogen / methane and the like.
Ethylene plants are typically capital-intensive and technology-intensive; we believe the core of large-scale ethylene plants is cracked ethylene technology, cracking furnaces, cracked gas compressors and the like.
Ethylene technology provider
Cracking ethylene technology is a mature production technology. The major ethylene technology providers in the world mainly include CB & I, Kellogg Brown & Root (KBR), Linde, Technip (KTI, Stone and Webster technology acquired, etc.).
France Desi Nib Technip: Is the world leader in ethylene technology, with about 50% of the world's new ethylene production from Technip since 2000. Technip acquired Stone & Webster in 2012, with Stone & Webster's ethylene expertise over 70 years and Technip itself 40 years, a total of 150 sets of original investment in ethylene plant technology transfer.
CB & I: Innovative technologies for more than 120 ethylene plants worldwide, accounting for about 40% of global capacity; has successfully completed more than 200 original investment, renovation and expansion of design projects.
KBR Company: Since 1990, more than 20 new ethylene plants have been installed with a total capacity of 13 million tons / year.
Linde Technology: Used in more than 40 large-scale ethylene plant, with a total capacity of more than 18 million tons / year.
Ethylene cracking furnace
A set of ethylene cracking unit has multiple cracking furnaces connected in parallel. At present, the capacity of single-stage cracking furnace in world-class scale is generally as follows: the ethylene capacity of liquid raw materials (naphtha, etc.) is 200,000 tons / year / Ethylene capacity for cracking (ethane, etc.) is 220,000 tons / year / station.
Major ethylene cracker suppliers in the world include SRT® ethylene furnaces from CB & I, furnace tubes from Wison Ethylene and Technip SMK ™ furnaces.
Pyrolysis gas compressor
Major equipment suppliers such as GE, Mitsubishi, Siemens, Elliot, Shen drum Group.
In recent years, the domestic Shengu Group has made great progress in the large-scale development of ethylene compressors. In November 2017, the first (set) of 1.2 million tons/year of ethylene developed, designed and manufactured by the Shengu Group. The centrifugal compressor set for the installation was successfully tested on the site of the second phase of the project of the China National Offshore Oil Corporation's Huizhou Refinery and Chemicals Co., Ltd., which indicates that China's 1.2 million-ton ethylene triple machine has been fully domesticated.
3, The downstream products are widely used
In 2017, China’s ethylene production was 18.22 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%; China’s average ethylene production growth was only 4% in the past five years, lagging behind GDP growth. China’s ethylene takes into account the downstream imports in the form of derivatives, corresponding to equivalent demand. Close to 40 million tons/year.
Due to the high logistic threshold of ethylene and the large downstream investment of ethylene, the overall downstream products are relatively healthy. In recent years, the profitability of downstream products represented by polyethylene, styrene and ethylene glycol is also good.
Polyethylene: The largest downstream application of ethylene.Polyethylene demand structure is good, we think mainly due to: the demand for plastic sheeting, polyethylene packaging materials to bring online shopping demand, the use of recycled materials to reduce the price decline and other factors. Consumption was 25.54 million tons.
Glycol: The main downstream is polyester fiber (polyester), polyester bottle, packaging material (BOPET), etc. The Chinese economy has a large demand for polyester fiber. China's ethylene glycol imports are large, with an import dependency of nearly 70%. The uncertainty of alcohol mainly comes from the release of coal-based ethylene glycol in China. At present, China's apparent consumption exceeds 13 million tons/year.
Ethylene oxide: This refers to the amount of ethylene oxide used in addition to the amount of ethylene glycol, the main downstream is the surfactant, alcohol ether, ethanolamine, etc.. Because the market for ethylene oxide in the previous few years is better, many factories are used for the second Reduced amount of alcohol used to produce high-purity ethylene oxide (HPEO) of commercial grade Due to the high price of ethylene, HPEO producers currently buying ethylene are not profitable.
Styrene: Mainly used in synthetic plastics PS, ABS; foaming material EPS; unsaturated resin UPR, etc. Styrene has a relatively high threshold due to large investment, and historical profitability has been good. At present, the domestic performance consumption exceeds 9 million tons per year. Import dependence is close to 40%.
Ethylene propylene rubber: Previous technologies were mainly controlled by LANXESS, Dow, and other companies. The domestic market was mainly Jilin Petrochemical. At present, the demand for ethylene propylene rubber in China is between 400,000 and 400,000 tons per year. It is mainly used in automotive components, waterproofing membranes, wire and cable and other fields. Industrial production methods mainly include acetylene method and ethylene method. Among them, ethylene method occupies a dominant position due to its good processability and economy.
PVC: In China, the calcium carbide method is still the mainstay. In the future, the catalyst contains mercury, which is expected to stimulate ethylene demand.
Vinyl acetate: Mainly used for coatings, slurries, films, leather processing, synthetic fibers, soil improvement and so on.
Alpha Alkene: Production is more difficult, mainly three types of synthetic lubricating base oil.
Other more promising downstream ethylene is mainly ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene and so on.
Global ethylene production cycle
1 Each round of ethylene production growth driver
Ethylene production capacity has obvious cyclical, generally divided into low-cost raw material-driven and demand-driven type from all stages of the progress of ethylene capacity put in perspective.
1, the Middle East: Mainly put into operation in 2007-2010, due to low cost of ethane quota system; the current shortage of ethane in the Middle East, the new ethylene plant mostly naphtha or mixed cracking.
2, China: During the period of 2009-2010, the newly-increased production capacity led by PetroChina and Sinopec Corp. was dominated by demand. Since 2011-2016, due to the high oil prices, the newly increased production capacity is represented by coal chemical industry.
3, the United States and North America: Since the shale gas revolution in North America started in 2011, a large amount of ethane was by-product, and the ethylene cracker in the United States was reformed to change the naphtha feedstock to ethane. At the same time, a large amount of ethylene plant was newly built, 2017-2020.
2, the United States to lead the new ethylene production capacity in the future
North America's ethylene operating rates have dropped below 80% for 2008 due to competitiveness, with 2.4 million tonnes being cut between 2008 and 2010. Since the shale gas revolution in 2010, by-product production of ethane has been substantial Increase, the United States substantially improve the competitiveness of ethylene raw materials.
From 2014 to 2018, US petrochemical capacity expansion will increase domestic demand for ethane by nearly 600,000 bbl/d.
Ethylene cracking is a huge investment and complex process; most of the ethylene cracking projects currently being developed will be put into production in 2017 or 2018, including six major projects announced in 2011 and 2012.
Four projects (from Dow, ExxonMobil, Chevron Philips, and OxyChem/Mexichem) are already under construction and two projects (from Formosa and Sasol) have been approved and promised by investors. The capacity expansion of existing facilities is expected to increase the production of ethylene products in the United States by 40%, reaching 37 million metric tons per year.
In August 2017, due to the impact of Hurricane Harvey in the United States, the commissioning of some cracking projects was postponed, and the new project was put into operation in 2018-2020.
In the future, the United States still plans several sets of ethylene, which involves FID, project design, and overall progress is expected to maintain the pace of project relaxation.
Ethylene is currently profitable in the current oil price
1, naphtha cracked ethylene at low oil prices good profit
The high correlation between naphtha and crude oil, low oil prices, the cracking of ethylene profit is good. Ethylene high investment threshold, downstream demand. Ethylene in the global growth rate of demand and GDP simultaneously, especially from the downstream polyethylene demand.
Taking naphtha cracked ethylene as an example, it usually takes 3 to 3 million tons of naphtha to produce 1 million tons of ethylene, while 500,000 tons of propylene, 150,000 tons of butadiene and 250,000 tons of pure Benzene; the other by-products include isobutylene, carbon five, mixed aromatic hydrocarbons, ethylene tar and so on.
2 domestic ethylene autonomy to promote polyethylene lead demand
The main downstream ethylene is polyethylene, ethylene glycol, styrene and other products, due to the small amount of ethylene, mostly in the form of derivatives imported into China.
From 2011 to 2015, the apparent growth rate of polyethylene in China was relatively fast, mainly due to the demand for packaging materials brought by online shopping and the increase in the demand for agricultural films. Meanwhile, as international oil prices started from the fourth quarter of 2014, The sharp decline, coupled with strict environmental protection in the country, and the drastic reduction in the use of recycled materials led to a significant improvement in demand and profitability of polyethylene.
In 2017, China produced 13.986 million tons of polyethylene resin, with a net import of 11.551 million tons, and an apparent consumption of 25.5731 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%; it accounted for about 64% of China’s total ethylene demand.
Since ethylene is stored and transported at minus 100 degrees, the amount of goods is small. Generally, ethylene producers sell their products in the form of derivatives.
In 2017, China’s ethylene production was 18.22 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%; the main products were converted from polyethylene, styrene, ethylene glycol, etc. The total demand was 39.068 million tons, an increase of 5.8% year-on-year. Considering domestic ethylene propylene rubber There are still gaps in vinyl acetate, etc. It is estimated that the domestic equivalent demand for ethylene is about 40 million tons.
From the comparison of the growth rate of ethylene production and the growth of equivalent demand, the shortage of domestic ethylene is increasing in 2017.
3, Naphtha, liquefied gas mixed cracking route becomes mainstream
The competitiveness of the ethylene process area is mainly divided into:
1, Ethylene cracking in the Middle East: The existing petrochemical plants in the Middle East have the lowest costs, mainly due to the existing low-cost quota policy, but due to the limited supply of new ethane in the Middle East in the future, the new plants can only be more naphtha-based.
2, the United States ethane cracking: The first petrochemical plant in the United States used ethane as a raw material. The petrochemical plant in the United States became weaker in competitiveness between 2005 and 2011. With the shale gas revolution, a large amount of ethane was by-product in North America and the ethylene plant in the United States returned to B Alkane feed.
3, naphtha cracking: The mainstream ethylene production process in Northeast Asia and Northwest Europe is relatively expensive, but there is not much difference in cost between other process routes at low oil prices. If we consider the by-product butadiene and pure benzene, the future price will still be competitive.
4, coal chemical industry: The CTO process using coal as the raw material and the MTO process for the purchased methanol currently have the highest cost of the MTO process; when the oil price rises and returns to more than US$60/barrel, the advantages of the coal chemical industry are expected to gradually emerge. However, the future will still be affected by water. Resources, environmental protection and other factors are still restricted.
We expect the oil price to fluctuate within the overall neutral range of 2018, and the pattern of long-term slow rise. The high probability of the operating range corresponding to oil price will fluctuate within the range of 60-70 US dollars/barrel. Under this oil price background, the northeast Asian nape The cash cost of oil cracking ethylene is in the middle of the ethylene cost curve around the world. In the future, more and more companies will adopt naphtha and liquefied gas mixed feeds to produce ethylene, thereby optimizing production costs.
Due to higher storage and transportation requirements of ethylene and less actual product volume, we think the ethylene cost in the United States and the Middle East is currently low, but it is hard to directly impact the Chinese market. Derivatives such as polyethylene, styrene, ethylene glycol Such as the export of products in the form.
4, refining and chemical integration and the rise of domestic refining capacity
Globally, refinery, ethylene petrochemical plant generally step by step, and a one-time investment in refining and ethylene synchronization device is relatively small.In China, with reference to Zhejiang Petrochemical, Sheng Hong Petrochemical one-time investment, a similar type of device Is also relatively rare.
Due to the limited new refining capacity in China in the past five years and the profitable refining of oil from 2016, Newly-built refining and chemical production led by private-owned enterprises will be put on the agenda , Leading the new production capacity in the future.From the new capacity planning and product point of view, the following features:
The scale of oil refining, while the traditional oil and petrochemical refineries to process refined oil for the design is different from the new planning projects are mostly aromatic, and other comprehensive utilization of chemicals based.
New petrochemical plant hydrogenation ability, by-product utilization improved.
Integrated ability; many projects at the same time supporting ethylene, the overall competitiveness will be significantly improved.
Outbound ethane cracking ethylene production on the agenda
Compared with naphtha cracking to ethylene, ethane is a raw material because of its light components and low by-products, so it has the advantages of small investment, large output of a single cracking furnace, and low material consumption.
The cracking of purchased ethane has become a new direction, and the marketization of ethane provides protection. Compared to the cracking of naphtha to ethylene, ethane is a raw material because the components are light and there are few by-products, so the investment is small, and the output of a single cracking furnace is large. Low material consumption advantages.Now the current European Ineos, India Reliance signed from the United States for a long supply of ethane to protect their supply of raw materials to crack ethylene.
Ethylene as the raw material for the cracking of ethylene has become the new direction of development. With reference to the successful case of propane dehydrogenation in the country, imports of propane from the United States and the Middle East, project progress, scale, and production stability have all surpassed raw material origins in the United States.
The core of ethane cracking in the future is the volume of upstream contracted goods. We believe that ethane decomposing is expected to replicate propane dehydrogenation as the US warehousing facilities improve, ethane transportation vessels are gradually put into use, and transactions involved in the acetylene trade increase globally. , Open up new competitive links in China.
We believe that the Chinese plan to purchase ethane from the United States for cracking is expected to accelerate. Unlike Ineos and Reliance, China's out-planned ethane producers are mainly new installations and new entrants to the ethylene industry. Involving sources, warehousing and other factors.
The relatively quick start of production is the Xinpu Chemical Co., Ltd. located in Taixing. Its ethane is mainly from Ineos. At present, the US ethane company has signed ethane supply agreements with three companies, Nanshan Group, Juneng Heavy Industry Group and Yangmei Coal Group Qingdao Hengyuan Chemicals. .
Coal Chemical Technology Progress and Cost Comparison
1 Coal chemical technology advances domestic technology
Coal chemical industry mainly converts coal gasification to syngas (the main components are hydrogen, carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, etc.), and then uses the active ingredients in the syngas to react accordingly to generate the required chemicals.
Compared with petrochemicals, the corresponding unit output value, coal chemical industry requires much more investment than petrochemicals, and coal chemical industry consumes large amounts of water and carbon emissions. Overall, coal chemical industry is competitive at high oil prices.
2 Domestic coal chemical industry has become an effective complement to petrochemicals
As of November 2017, according to the statistics of Asia Chemical Consulting, China has put into operation 28 sets of coal and methanol olefins production equipments that have been successfully operated and commissioned, resulting in a total production capacity of 12.05 million tons/year olefins (not yet put into operation MTP production capacity Included.) Estimated 2017 new olefin production capacity 2.62 million tons / year.
It is estimated that in 2017-2021, China is expected to add 13 million tons/year of CTO/MTO capacity, and the total production capacity in 2021 will reach 25 million tons/year. Among them, a total of approximately 15 million tons/year coal (methyl alcohol) olefins production capacity will be concentrated. In western China.
in conclusion
We believe that under the current oil price backdrop, ethylene earnings are expected to continue to increase, and cyclical weakening. With ethylene as the largest petrochemical product, upstream investment costs are high, and downstream demand is closely related to economic growth. The overall supply and demand pattern is unlikely to change significantly.
In contrast, we believe that the large-scale petrochemical enterprises through the optimization of refining and chemical integration, large-scale production, diversified raw material cost options will bring performance beyond the industry.
In addition to their own supply and demand of ethylene, the main variables that affect future ethylene production are:
1, the severity of raw materials, such as condensate instead of naphtha; or liquefied petroleum gas (propane, butane composition) in summer prices are low, part of the mixture instead of naphtha feed.
2, depth of cracking, ethylene / propylene ratio adjustment.
3, olefin conversion unit OCU.
4, material balance mass-balance: such as styrene, ethylene glycol unit operation on the cracking of faucet and other devices.
5, by-products such as butadiene, carbon five economic and so on.