Why write 'component demand' without writing 'PV installed capacity'? This is because US power plant owners have stockpiled a 5GW PV module inventory under the '201' policy of the United States, which will become U.S. Photovoltaic installed capacity, but it will not become the actual demand for components. Therefore, at this time node in 2018, calculating the demand for components, can be closer to the actual experience of the manufacturing industry.
Forecasting demand is very difficult.A large number of industry analysts predict that in early 2017, when the PV installed capacity of only 70GW, there will be the first negative growth in the history of the photovoltaic industry.However, the development of the reality is unexpected, in the United States '201' policy of the turmoil, boosted by the Chinese distributed ultra-expected explosion, the global demand for PV modules in 2017 not only did not negative growth, but the first time in history exceeded 100GW days.
By the beginning of 2018, a very optimistic industry report came out. It is predicted that China's demand will reach 60GW and 70GW or more. Global demand will further rise to more than 120GW. This kind of prediction may still be among analysts Conservative; The most optimistic report I have ever seen comes from Industrial Securities. In the report, it is predicted that China’s demand will reach 240 GW in only 3 to 5 years, which is 2.4 times the current global demand!
In a noisy and noisy, to remain calm and objective is difficult.Fortunately, just around me there are some such cool and objective friends, they are respectively the founder of Bright Star Solar PVP teacher PV infolink and Solarzoom think tank friends, They are all friends who witness or have witnessed the industrial cycle and naturally will not be blindly optimistic. This article is a work that summarizes the above three think-tank achievements and superposes their own analytical thinking. Of course, each think tank forecasts the demand forecast The content may not be the same, I will compare the analysis to select the prediction that I think is the most reliable.
As always, let's put the conclusion first: Before 2018, three regions in the world's top four PV markets will face varying degrees of challenges. The global installed capacity may reach 90-95GW, possibly in the history of the photovoltaic industry The first negative growth, we should not blindly optimistic at this time.
Where was the mistake in the analysis last year?
Failure is the mother of success, error is the mother of the right; analysis of last year's prediction wrong, perhaps this year's forecast can make more accurate.
In fact, apart from the forecast, in early 2017, there are also many reliable parts of the forecast, for example, the Japanese market in 2017 was the expected decline in installed capacity, only 5.8GW; the Indian market as expected Doubled from 4.5GW to 9GW in 2017. The deviation mainly came from the two markets of China and the United States. The actual installed capacity in the United States did decline, dropping from 16GW in 2016 to 11GW. However, in the U.S. '201' policy Under the disturbances, there was an early rush-through of stockpiling cargo at the end of 2017. It is possible that everybody hoarding a 5GW component may have a higher tax rate on silicon chips, resulting in a 5GW deviation between forecast and actual.
Greater deviation still comes from China. Due to China's policy of "first-come-first-in-first-come," the PV installation volume has not risen sharply under the indicator control. In 2017, the Bureau of Energy released a supplement of 13.9GW. In addition, And household photovoltaic also appeared an unexpected big outbreak, an increase of 350% to 19.44GW, which is the most imaginative analyst at the beginning of the year can not guess the development trend.
Therefore, the three major factors that caused the disruption to the US, such as the '201' disruption, the outbreak of China's dis- tribution, and the advance of China's capital construction, led to major discrepancies between the forecast and the actual situation. Except for the three components, most of the forecasts for other regions Basic reliability.
Looking ahead to 2018, the above three factors that have caused the market to exceed expectations in the past year will change more or less. First, the US '201' bill has passed, and the United States has basically eliminated the accumulation of a large number of component inventory in the first half of 2018. Demand; Secondly, China has already stopped the policy of first-come-first-served and will no longer have additional indicators; Finally, the distributed market has full growth expectations, and because the commercial and commercial roof projects may need to be included in indicator management, the Chinese distributed market The probability of development that is once again exceeding expectations is decreasing.
Global Market Analysis
The Chinese market: The installed capacity of 53GW in 2017 is the largest photovoltaic installation market in the world, accounting for 52% of the world's total. In 2018, project forecasts within the national indicators are easier and more accurate because there is no disturbance of the first-served-first-served policy. Projects under national indicator planning are:
1. Estimated 12 GW for ground station specifications.
Analysis: A total of 14.4 GW of ground power station targets were issued in 2017, of which approximately 8 GW has been allocated to the photovoltaic power station project built on the policy of first-come-first-served basis; the remaining 6 to 7 GW of project is expected to be rushed in 2018. 630 time points. This is the main source of demand for this year’s 630 rush. During the 630 installation period last year, a total of more than 20 GW of photovoltaic power stations were installed. This year's rush load was only one-third of last year, taking into account the continuously expanding capacity. , We can conclude with a clear conclusion that the so-called 630 pick-up this year will not bring any significant disturbance to the price of PV-related products.
In addition, there will be 11.1GW of general terrestrial power station indicators released in 2018; however, due to the tightening of the current state's attitude toward photovoltaic development, it is expected that the release time of these indicators will be very late. If such indicators are eventually in the third and fourth, Quarterly issued one after another, then the amount can be installed in this year will be very limited.
Therefore, Wang Shujuan’s teacher expects that the 2018 indicator can be implemented in 2018, only about 3 GW. However, I think that there will be no grace period of 630 in 2019. This will prompt some owners of power plants to get timely indicators. Will work hard to get online before the end of this year and the capacity for implementing the indicator in 2018 to the current year is estimated to be 5GW or above. Therefore, the demand for indicator project components from ordinary ground-based power stations will be 12GW by 2018.
2. Estimated 6GW for the leader project.
Analysis: In 2018, there are 5GW application leader project to be built and installed, and the timing of the grid leader's grid connection is estimated to be 2019. However, since the 2017 frontrunners installed less than the indicator, there is about 1.2GW. The project was not completed on-grid and was recently issued by the state to require a grid-connected installation as soon as possible. Otherwise, the electricity price will be reduced by 5 cents per quarter according to the policy. It is estimated that under the stimulation of the policy, this part of the bidding was not completed. The project will actively rush to install, leading to the annual leader project of 6GW.
3, 4.18GW or 8GW of village poverty alleviation power station.
Analysis: At present, the government has separately issued 4.18GW village poverty alleviation power station targets. Since poverty alleviation is a national policy and subsidies have not been lowered by countries, this part of the project has a high probability of full implementation of the project this year. There is also total Some 4GW of projects may issue indicators. However, there are uncertainties in whether these indicators can be issued. Overall, this year's national policy on the photovoltaic industry will be tight and loose. In the first half of the year, the focus of the country is mainly on subsidies. The gap is huge and the grid has limited capacity, so the overall PV industry policy is not very friendly. In the second half of the year, the photovoltaic industry may have a big reshuffle, the situation of the enterprise will become more difficult, and the country’s focus may return again. Manufacturing industry, and then introduced a relaxed photovoltaic industry policy.If the other 4GW poverty alleviation targets can be issued in time, then the total capacity of village-level poverty alleviation will reach 8GW.
4. Seven unconstrained target areas and 2.5GW of UHV grid supporting projects.
This part directly refers to the experience, and it is estimated that the target area will be installed with 1.5 GW; the supporting project for the UHV power grid is estimated to have 1 GW.
5, household distribution will burst to 8GW;
Analysis: According to the shipment statistics of inverter manufacturers, China's household inverter output reached 500,000 sets (approximately 2.8 GW) in 2017, and the subsidy for self-use projects was reduced only slightly in 2018 (only a downward adjustment 5 cents) According to our calculation of a component price as low as 0.35 yuan this year, the internal rate of return of the household project will exceed the previous year. As I estimate this year, the price of polycrystalline silicon modules will fall to 2 yuan/W. Last year, the average price of 2.8 yuan fell by as much as 0.8 yuan, so the internal rate of return for domestic power plants will exceed that of last year. In addition, a large number of heavyweight players have entered the market and become new players. It is expected that this year's household distribution will be Further ushered in a major explosion, reaching 1.5 million sets of magnitude, which corresponds to 8GW of photovoltaic installed capacity.
6, Industrial and Commercial Roof Project 10GW.
Analysis: As the country is considering the inclusion of this type of project into the indicator management, there will be huge uncertainty in the installed capacity of this part. At present, only the neutral optimistic estimate is 10 GW.
China Market Summary: Adding the above six parts, it is estimated that China's PV installation capacity in 2018 should be around 45GW. Although there are bright spots in many subdivided areas, due to the lack of first-come-first-served supplementary indicators and possible distribution Incorporating the indicator management, the overall capacity is less than the 53GW in 2017, and the Chinese market has ushered in negative growth, which in turn poses no small challenge to the global market.
US market: Estimated actual component demand in 2018 6GW.
Analysis: The US market launched a double counter-report in April last year. Due to concerns that the U.S. government will impose higher punitive tariffs, it conducted surprise raiding and component picking in the third and fourth quarters of last year. Photovoltaic installed capacity was 11 GW, but 5 GW of stock was hoarded. Therefore, the actual demand for components in the United States last year was as high as 16 GW, and it continued to maintain its position as the second largest market in the world.
In January 2018, 201 dust settled and a 30% tax rate was finally imposed. Lin Yunrong of PV Infolink believes that high tax rates will increase the cost of US power plant construction. Therefore, it is expected that the actual installed capacity of US PV power plants will further decrease in 2018. The installation demand in the United States is 9GW. In addition, because of the stockpiling of 9GW components, the actual component demand in the US market in 2018 will be reduced to 4GW, only a quarter of last year. It can be seen that the disturbance in the US market will give the global The market brings huge uncertainty. Moreover, due to the large stocks currently stockpiled, it can be expected that there will be virtually no demand in the US market in the first half of 2018.
In the fourth quarter of this year, we believe that the price of components will fall more than expected. In particular, the further popularization of 300W+ high-efficiency components will make the cost of U.S. power plant construction even consider the effect of a 30% tariff, which is still quite cost-effective. Therefore, we can apply to 2018. The demand in the second half of the year remained optimistic. I estimate that the actual component demand in the United States this year will reach 6GW, which is higher than the 4GW of analyst Lin Shurong.
Indian Market: Estimated to have further growth, up to 12GW
Analysis: India installed 9GW of photovoltaic power in 2017, thanks to excellent lighting conditions (around 2000 hours) and low labor costs. India's photovoltaic market, since the beginning of the outbreak, was a parity market, accompanied by further decline in PV module prices this year. Photovoltaic power is likely to become the cheapest energy in India. The constraints on India's photovoltaic development are the capacity of the power grid; As India's electricity demand is only one-fifth of China's electricity demand, the current installed capacity of 10GW is given by The consumption challenge brought by India's power grid has been enormous. Recently, there is a good news that India has stopped investigating China’s double counter-measures, considering the current situation of power shortage in India and photovoltaic power that may become cheaper. India installed photovoltaic power in 2018 Further growth, it is estimated that it will reach 12GW.
Japan market: estimated 5GW
In 2017, the Japanese market installed capacity was 6GW. Since April 1st, 2018, Japan will further reduce the FIT subsidy, from 24 yen to 21 yen/kwh, a 12.5% reduction rate. Japan is a high BOS cost area, so even The price of components fell sharply. The actual decline in the cost of power plant construction was far less than the decline in the price of components. This led to the unprofitability of photovoltaic power plant operators in Japan.
Last year, 98 photovoltaic power plant operators in Japan went bankrupt, which is the climax of bankruptcy in Japan. As these companies are the main part of the promotion and construction of photovoltaic power plants, their large number of bankruptcies will inevitably lead to a further reduction in Japan’s installed photovoltaic capacity this year; The over-expected drop in the price will offset the negative impact to a certain extent, so the estimated demand for components in Japan is 5GW.
Other markets
In China, 53GW in 2017, 16GW in the United States, 9GW in India, and 6GW in Japan, the total PV installation capacity in the four markets totaled 84GW, accounting for 83% of the global installed PV capacity. The market demand in Europe, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, South America, and Africa totaled 18GW, accounting for 17%; Although the installed capacity of the above market is not large, it is a very healthy market. The above areas benefit from good lighting resources or high local electricity prices. They are basically markets that have developed out of subsidies.
Due to the possibility of a more-than-expected decline in component prices in 2018, the above areas may usher in more-than-expected development. The result is: The proportion of the top four markets will decrease, while that of other regions will increase. Due to energy and capacity, we are not The detailed analysis of the regional market can only be combined with the general environment. It is estimated that the increase in the installed capacity of photovoltaic installations in the above-mentioned areas can reach 40% to 60%, that is, 25 to 30 GW.
Summary and comments:
Looking forward to 2018, as three markets in the world’s top four markets face challenges at the same time, there will be negative growth at different levels. The total installed capacity of PV in the world will be around 93 GW, compared to the installed capacity of 103 GW in 2017. World PV installed capacity will usher in the first negative growth in history.
Because the demand is only 90% of last year, and the unit price of photovoltaic products will decline to 75% last year, making the output value of photovoltaic manufacturing only 67% last year, the difficulties and challenges facing the photovoltaic manufacturing industry should not be underestimated. Related companies in the industry Should be fully prepared to deal with, in particular, pay special attention to their own company's cash flow status.
In addition, the pattern of silicon material that I have been good at analyzing will usher in a big change.
2018 93GW components demand for silicon needs
According to the above table, we can see that if the total global demand for components by 2018 is 93GW, the corresponding demand for silicon material is only 330,000 tons. At present, China's monthly silicon output has reached 25,000 tons / month.
With Tongweileishan, Baotou 50,000 tons, Xinjiang GCL 40,000 tons, the East hopes 20,000 tons and a series of low-cost production capacity, the fourth quarter of this year, China's silicon production capacity will reach 450,000 tons, enough To meet the needs of the world, so in the second half of this year, China will complete the import of silicon materials alternative, high-cost overseas production capacity will be large-scale exit.
