The photovoltaic industry chain is broadly divided into production of high-purity polysilicon raw materials, production of solar cells, production of solar cell modules, and manufacturing of related production equipment. The current state of China's photovoltaic industry utilizes solar energy in the best way is photovoltaic conversion, that is, the use of photovoltaic effects to make the sun The light shines on the silicon material to generate electricity to generate electricity directly. The following analysis of the photovoltaic industry development prospect.
At this stage, the development of China's photovoltaic industry has basically formed a relatively complete industrial chain relationship; its industrial chain mainly includes upstream silicon materials such as monocrystalline silicon rods, square rods, and single crystal polycrystalline silicon wafers; single-crystal and polycrystalline cell wafers are formed. And components provide raw material and product guarantees for downstream photovoltaic power generation systems and products. The 2018-2023 China Solar PV Industry Market Depth Analysis and Investment Strategy Study Report shows that with the continuous introduction of China's photovoltaic industry policy, the development of photovoltaic industry in all regions is The development to a higher level not only includes the expansion of investment scale, but also the acceleration of the upgrading of industrial technology level. The industry is facing a high-speed growth period of development and a higher degree of overall competition. Now the development prospect of photovoltaic industry is analyzed from five points.
(1) Three major markets in the United States, Japan and the United States decline simultaneously Supply chain profit is lower than 2016
The prospects for the development of the photovoltaic industry indicate that as China's 2017 PV target is slightly lower than 2016, the United States rushes to install a slight decline, Japan's purchase rate (FiT) continues to decline, and other unfavorable factors, the top three demand countries will change in ranking next year , The development trend of the photovoltaic industry points out that the rising India may replace Japan and boast the throne of the third largest demand power.
However, the growth rate in India and emerging markets did not make up for the recession in China, the United States and Japan. For first-line component factories to consolidate their shipments, the market price of the first-line components will eventually bottom out. The average market price of components may start from US $ 0.38 / W early next year, At the end of the year, only US $ 0.33 / W remained, at which not only the upstream and midstream manufacturers will face huge losses, but also the first-tier component fab will not be able to maintain the gross profit margin of over 15% in the past. As a whole, Under profit will be lower than 2016.
(2) The release of production capacity in the third place tends to be the same
Since the United States imposed "double counter-countermeasures" sanctions against China and Taiwan in 2014, the production of solar cells and modules has blossomed throughout Southeast Asia, avoiding the high tax rate and enjoying a relatively high price advantage due to the lack of monopoly. The third real estate profit-making However, the war on overseas arms races in China's first-tier manufacturers has been so drastic that the spot prices in the United States and Europe can be seen quickly and quickly under the recent killings. At present, the third real estate capacity has been enough to support the trade barriers between the United States and Europe , Making the past due to trade barriers to become a high-priced market in the United States, Europe, the current price excluding shipping costs have almost the same price with the Chinese market. Global component prices next year will be more consistent case, the third is not the winning property Depending on the amount of production capacity, but whether there is a way to produce single crystal or single crystal PERC and other differentiated products.
In addition to avoiding the double trade barriers between the United States and Europe, the third area of investment in production capacity will allow component enterprises to directly tap into emerging markets in the region. However, for Taiwan-based factories that mainly produce battery cells and foundry overseas, their profits To reduce the price of overseas components that are continuously declining, it is difficult to see the advantages, and it is necessary to prevent third-party production capacity from becoming counterproductive.
(3) PERC Heavy Duty Single Crystal City accounts for more than 32%
With technology maturing, PERC has become an indicator of the competitiveness of enterprises, this year's global PERC production capacity has reached 13GW, 2017 more direct 20GW mark.However, according to the photovoltaic industry outlook for the development of this year's PERC production is less than 4GW, shows PERC bottleneck is not capacity, and the stability of the battery mass production.With the simultaneous production of many manufacturers, efficiency, 2017 will be PERC by leaps and bounds, next year the mainstream of PERC components wattage will be raised to 295 - 300W, the output is also expected Multiply.
Benefit from PERC products cost-effective and warming up the leader program, the single crystal market share continues to rise in the next two years, especially next year 5.5GW leader in monocrystalline market share may be close to Bacheng, plus a specific province Release of the leader of the program, as well as poverty alleviation and distributed rooftop system preferences and efficient products, making next year accounted for nearly 40% of single crystal in China.Lin Yanrong said that in addition to single crystal in China, PERC also gradually expand the cost-effective overseas markets, single-crystal overseas market share steady than this year, overseas monocrystalline market will also significantly increase the global monocrystalline accounting for this year's 23.5% will rise to about 32% next year , The market outlook can be.
(4) the price of diamonds to help break the tide of diamonds
Black silicon technology in various contests in 2017, but by the rapid decline in market conditions in the second half of this year, corporate investment attitude to wait and see, making the diamond cut with black silicon technology has not made significant progress. 2017 black silicon technology is still diamond cut Crystal products, the biggest bottleneck, but the price collapse soon, the expansion of monocrystalline market share and step by step, diamond cutting polycrystalline silicon is imperative.In the enterprise cash level is still tight in 2017, the development of the photovoltaic industry The trend is that initial high capital investment dry etching may be less heat, companies will mainly consider the wet method, or additive production of black silicon products.
At present, from the perspective of the development of the photovoltaic industry, the selection of black silicon technology still depends on the leading manufacturers such as GCL, Artes, BYD and other manufacturers will bring what kind of trend.But to the business model to observe the vertical integration plant in the diamond The cost saved by the wire-cut silicon can save about US $ 0.06 per piece after deducting the added cost of wet-process black silicon, and the production capacity of its own components is less demanding on the appearance of the battery, so that the wet-process black silicon For vertical integration plant has no small advantage.
(5) N-type market by PERC cost-effective compression market is difficult to expand
However, the N-type equipment is expensive and its technology route is diverse. In addition, the importance of cost reduction in 2017 is much more important than the efficiency and the high-cost N-type technology is difficult to expand. It is expected that such technologies as HJT, PERT and MWT will still be capable of exploiting niche markets with special needs and that the issue of double-sided power generation will continue to be fermented along with the topics of fishing, agriculture and ophthalmology. Although the back-side power generation has a great impact on the overall power plant Big help, but at present the back of the power generation testing, identification and other mechanisms have yet to be standardized, it is difficult to make significant progress next year.
2018 will be the key period for PV to continue to improve and enhance efficiency.Public industry development prospects Public information shows that in 2017 the cost of photovoltaic power generation is gradually declining and become the mainstream of green electricity in China.Industry analysis generally pointed out that with the PV equipment manufacturing to enhance and As the investment cost is reduced, the cost of photovoltaic power generation is expected to drop to 0.33 yuan / kWh in 2020. Up to now, China's PV power generation has entered a new phase of large-scale development, with installed capacity ranking first in the world.
